Revealing Hidden Climate Harms

The report "Recalibrating Climate Risk: Aligning Damage Functions with Scientific Understanding" argues that current economic models significantly underestimate the unknown of future climate impacts. The document focuses on the profound uncertainty inherent in "damage functions"—the mathematical tools used to predict how global warming will affect GDP—and highlights a dangerous disconnect between economic theory and scientific reality. The report emphasizes that the future will be defined by "extremes," not the "averages" currently used in most models. There is significant uncertainty regarding the frequency and intensity of "tail risks"—low-probability but catastrophic events like massive storms or heatwaves. Unlike steady economic growth, climate damage is expected to be "non-linear," meaning small increases in temperature could lead to sudden, disproportionate economic collapses that current models fail to predict. A major wildcard is the potential for "planetary tipping points" (e.g., the melting of permafrost), which introduce "bounded collapse probabilities" that are currently omitted from standard risk assessments. Future uncertainty is exacerbated by how damages interact across different sectors and geographies. Damages are described as "cascading and long-lasting," where a failure in one sector (like agriculture) can trigger unpredictable "capital destruction" and "labour productivity losses" across the entire economy. There is deep uncertainty about how damage "compounds across time, space, and sectors," making it difficult for financial regulators to assess the true level of systemic risk. The report identifies "direct and indirect" failures in how climate risk is currently quantified. Much of the current future uncertainty stems from "arbitrary" functional forms and hidden assumptions in Integrated Assessment Models. While incorporating "expert knowledge" can help, the report notes that these judgments may be "biased" and that there is a lack of "expert confidence" when dealing with higher temperature levels. There is a "fundamental disconnect" between climate science and the "top-down macroeconomic perspective" used by financial regulators and investors, creating a "blind spot" for future climate-driven financial crises. The report suggests that the "greatest unknown" is the point at which climate damage exceeds the system's ability to adapt. To navigate this, researchers and regulators must move beyond "aggregate functions" and embrace "process-based approaches" that explicitly quantify the massive uncertainties of a warming world.

☠️ Global warming might soon empower one of the deadliest — and most overlooked — threats to human health: toxic fungi. It’s not just rising seas or heatwaves we should worry about. I recently read a study from The University of Manchester that hit me in a completely different way — because it touches something we rarely talk about in climate conversations: pathogenic fungi. 🔬 By 2100, as global temperatures rise, species like Aspergillus flavus and Aspergillus fumigatus could dramatically expand their range across Europe, affecting millions of people. These aren’t obscure spores — they can produce deadly aflatoxins or trigger severe infections in immunocompromised individuals. 🧠 What researchers found shocked me: - Aspergillus flavus habitat could grow by +16%, putting 1 million people at risk - Aspergillus fumigatus may see a +77.5% spread, impacting 9 million Europeans - The trigger? A warming climate, fossil fuel dependency, and shifting humidity zones - This was modeled under just one of several scenarios — and only using 10% of known fungal species 💥 For me, this reframes the climate-health discussion completely. It’s not just about mosquito-borne diseases or food security. It’s about the hidden, airborne, invisible risks multiplying in the background — and our limited preparedness to deal with them. Fungi are often excluded from major climate or health policy frameworks, yet they are evolving faster than our defenses. 🌍 We work with GHG data every day — but this reminds me why systems thinking is key. Carbon is the metric, yes. But the real signal is in the cascading impacts: from ecosystems to immune systems, from crops to lungs. Climate change isn’t just warming the planet. It’s changing what grows, what dies, and what makes us sick. #ClimateHealth #Fungi #GlobalWarming #Biodiversity #ZoonoticRisk #GHG #Sustainability #Aspergillus #ClimateRisk #ToxicMolds #Decarbonization #SystemsThinking #SQUAKE #PublicHealth #InvisibleThreats #NetZero

𝗝𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱: A landmark report confirms (yet again) that the EPA's 2009 original endangerment finding was correct. Human-caused climate change is no longer just a future threat but a present and compounding drag on US health and economic welfare. The National Academy of Sciences new consensus study connects the dots between emissions and systemic consequences. It validates the EPA's 2009 endangerment finding, providing clear evidence that harm has grown substantially. 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆: 🔸 𝗛𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗻 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵 𝗶𝘀 𝗱𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱, as climate-driven heat, wildfire smoke, and ozone exacerbate chronic illness and create new and cascading public health crises. 🔸 𝗡𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴, allowing infectious diseases carried by ticks and mosquitoes to expand into new regions, stressing healthcare capacity. 🔸 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗳𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺 𝗶𝘀 𝗲𝗿𝗼𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴, with climate volatility directly reducing crop yields and livestock productivity, creating fragility in our supply chains. 🔸 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝘁 𝗲𝗻𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘂𝗻𝗳𝗶𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗹𝘀, as sea level rise and extreme weather increasingly damage critical infrastructure, threatening the 40% of Americans in coastal counties. 🔸 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴, with estimates of tens of billions in agricultural losses from temperature-related crop failures and heat-stressed livestock and over $160 billion of increased economic burden from the health impacts of climate-driven wildfire smoke. 𝗠𝘆 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲 This report shows that public health, food security, and infrastructure resilience are not separate domains, they are deeply interconnected parts of a national system now being actively degraded by climate change. A stressed agricultural system impacts nutrition and health; a compromised workforce impacts economic productivity and damaged infrastructure disrupts both. For leaders, this is a clear signal that climate risk is no longer an externality. It is a core operational variable that directly impacts workforce health, supply chain integrity, and long-term capital planning. These systemic costs must be factored into our business models and national accounts, as they are already resulting in human lives lost and economic costs. Download Report: https://lnkd.in/eN4GqW5H #Sustainability #ClimateChange #SystemsThinking #ESG #ClimateRisk #Leadership #Resilience #PublicHealth

🔬 New Study Reveals Hidden Climate Risk of Hydrogen Leakages While low-carbon hydrogen is heralded as a key enabler of the global energy transition, this detailed analysis from the European HYDRA project warns of a hidden climate challenge: hydrogen leakage across the supply chain. 📉 Key Insights: Hydrogen is an indirect greenhouse gas. When leaked, it extends methane’s atmospheric lifetime and increases ozone and water vapor, amplifying warming. Electrolysis, despite being green, is the most leakage-prone production method — with leakage rates ranging from 0.03% to 9.2%. Liquid hydrogen is highly vulnerable during handling and transport, with leakage rates reaching up to 15% at refueling stations. By 2050, global hydrogen leakage could range from under 2% (optimistic) to nearly 20% (worst-case) across the supply chain. These losses could lead to up to 1.5 GtCO₂eq/year in climate impact — nearly 4% of today’s global CO₂ emissions. 🔧 Takeaway: Leakages, if not addressed, could offset much of hydrogen’s climate benefit. This calls for investment in better detection technologies, mitigation strategies, and robust monitoring protocols. 📊 The study offers a comprehensive, stage-by-stage leakage breakdown for 2023, 2030, and 2050 scenarios — a valuable resource for policymakers and industry leaders planning hydrogen futures. #HydrogenLeakage #GreenHydrogen #EnergyTransition #ClimateRisk #NetZero2050 #HydrogenEconomy

How climate change is simultaneously weakening health systems AND accelerating antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The Hidden Crisis While we often discuss climate change and antibiotic resistance as separate challenges, our research reveals they're dangerously intertwined: 🌡️ Rising temperatures increase bacterial resistance gene transfer by 30-50% in aquatic environments 🌊 Flooding events redistribute resistance genes into drinking water, with resistant bacteria found in 65% of post-flood water samples in LMICs ⚡ Extreme weather disrupts healthcare infrastructure, leading to 72-hour treatment delays and 89% inappropriate antibiotic use during disasters The Vicious Cycle Here's what makes this so concerning: Climate shocks damage health facilities → This forces inappropriate antimicrobial use → Which drives resistance → Further burdening already strained systems. In Low- and Middle-Income Countries, this cycle is particularly devastating. During Cyclone Idai, 40% of health facilities reported critical staff shortages, while climate-related health spending diverts 5-10% of annual health budgets from essential services. Why You Should Care This isn't just an environmental or medical issue It's a systemic threat requiring urgent cross-sectoral action. Our framework shows that: ✅ Climate adaptation strategies MUST include AMR mitigation ✅ Health system resilience depends on addressing environmental resistance reservoirs ✅ One Health approaches are essential, not optional The Path Forward We propose an integrated risk assessment framework linking climate adaptation with AMR containment. Policymakers, health practitioners, urban planners, and agricultural leaders all have critical roles to play. The evidence is clear: we cannot address antimicrobial resistance without confronting climate change, and vice versa. Read our full study: Climate Change, Health System Resilience, and Antimicrobial Resistance: An Integrated Risk Assessment and Mitigation Framework DOI: https://lnkd.in/dd5VZNeB What aspects of the climate-health-AMR nexus do you find most pressing? Let's discuss in the comments. #ClimateChange #AntimicrobialResistance #GlobalHealth #OneHealth #PublicHealth #HealthSystems #ClimateAdaptation #AMR #HealthcareResilience #Research

Climate Risk Iceberg: What We See vs What We Ignore 🌍 Climate change is often discussed through visible events like floods, storms, and heatwaves. But just like an iceberg, the real risks lie beneath the surface—hidden, complex, and far more disruptive. VISIBLE RISKS - ABOVE THE SURFACE 🌧️ Flooding & Storms: Increasing frequency and intensity damaging homes, industries, and lands. 🌡️🔥 Heatwaves & Drought: Extreme temperatures impacting human health, water availability, and productivity. 🔥🌲 Wildfires: Rising global temperatures leading to uncontrolled fires, ecosystem destruction, and air pollution. 🌊🏝️ Coastal Erosion: Sea-level rise threatening coastal communities, industries, and ecosystems. HIDDEN RISK - BELOW THE SURFACE These are long-term, interconnected risks that organizations often underestimate: 🚢📦 Supply Chain Disruptions: Climate events interrupt transportation, raw material availability, and logistics networks—leading to delays, financial losses, and operational shutdowns. 🏗️🌉 Infrastructure Damage: Roads, bridges, factories, and utilities are increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather, resulting in costly repairs and business interruptions. ⚔️🌍 Social Conflict & Political Instability: Resource scarcity (water, food) can trigger unrest, insecurities, and geopolitical tensions. 🌾🍞 Food Security Collapse: Climate variability reduces agricultural yield, threatens livestock, and increases global hunger risks. 🚶♂️🏙️ Migration Pressures: Climate-induced displacement forces communities to relocate, creating urban stress and humanitarian challenges. 🐾🌳 Biodiversity Loss & Ecosystem Collapse: Species extinction and ecosystem degradation weaken natural systems that support life, including pollination, clean water, and climate regulation. 💡 Why This Matters for Health, Safety & Environment (HSE) As HSE professionals, we must move beyond reactive approaches and adopt proactive climate risk management strategies: ✔ Risk assessment beyond immediate hazards ✔ Climate-resilient infrastructure planning ✔ Sustainable supply chain practices ✔ Emergency preparedness and adaptation planning Key Takeaway: What’s invisible today could become tomorrow’s biggest crisis. Organizations that understand the full climate risk iceberg will be better prepared, resilient, and sustainable. #ClimateChange #ClimateRisk #Sustainability #HSE #EnvironmentalManagement #ClimateResilience #OccupationalSafety #ESG #SustainableDevelopment #GlobalWarming #EnvironmentalAwarenessCampaign UET Lahore Master's in Safety, Health and Environment (SHE) Mohsin Kazmi

Cleaner Air, Warmer Planet? China’s Emissions Cuts Reveal a Climate Trade-Off Introduction China’s aggressive air pollution reforms have delivered dramatic public health gains, cutting particulate matter by more than 50% and sulfur dioxide by two-thirds since 2013. But new research shows that these successes are also altering the planet’s energy balance in unexpected ways, slightly accelerating global warming. The Public Health Victory • China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan modernized heavy industry and installed scrubbers on coal plants. • Atmospheric particulate matter fell by over 50%. • Sulfur dioxide emissions dropped by roughly two-thirds. • The reforms represent one of the most significant air-quality improvements of recent decades. The Hidden Climate Effect • Sulfur dioxide forms sulfate aerosols that reflect sunlight back into space. • Aerosols have offset roughly one-third of warming from greenhouse gases. • As sulfur emissions decline, fewer reflective particles form. • More solar radiation reaches Earth’s surface, contributing to warming. Measured Climate Impact • Modeling suggests China’s sulfur reductions added approximately 0.06–0.07°C of global warming between 2007 and 2025. • That accounts for about 12% of observed warming during the period. • Net radiative forcing increased by around 0.10–0.15 watts per square meter globally. • Regional effects, especially over the North Pacific and tropics, were significantly stronger. Regional and Atmospheric Complexity • Sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere persist longer and influence broader regions. • Most radiative impact stems from shortwave effects, including cloud interactions. • While China reduced emissions, India increased sulfur output, creating shifting regional balances. • Changes in one country can affect atmospheric chemistry and climate across Asia and beyond. Why Emissions Cuts Still Matter • Aerosols are short-lived; greenhouse gases persist for decades or centuries. • The cooling from pollution is temporary and comes at severe health and environmental costs. • Long-term climate stabilization depends primarily on reducing carbon dioxide and methane. • Accurate climate forecasting requires models that account for declining aerosol cooling alongside greenhouse warming. Conclusion China’s experience underscores the complex interplay between air quality policy and climate dynamics. Cleaner air improves lives but removes a temporary cooling shield that masked part of global warming. The lesson is not to slow pollution cuts, but to accelerate greenhouse gas reductions while refining climate models to capture these interconnected effects. Environmental progress must now be paired with deeper decarbonization to avoid unintended temperature acceleration. I share daily insights with tens of thousands of followers across defense, tech, and policy. If this topic resonates, I invite you to connect and continue the conversation. Keith King https://lnkd.in/gHPvUttw

New coverage from CBC/Radio-Canada reinforces a challenge we continue to see globally: a significant share of flood risk remains unaccounted for in official maps. In collaboration with a CBC reporter, we analyzed every property in Quebec using the First Street Global Flood Model and compared those results to the province’s administrative flood maps. The findings are striking: • ~2.8x more properties exposed to 100-year flood risk than currently mapped. For context, similar work in the U.S. identified ~2.2x more risk than FEMA maps The gap is not about “errors” in existing maps, but about structural limitations. Regulatory maps tend to rely on historical flood patterns and standardized thresholds, the First Street model incorporates high-resolution elevation data, advanced hydrologic modeling, a broader definition of exposure, and the impacts of a non-stationary clomate. The result is a more forward-looking, and exhaustive, view of flood risk, especially along floodplain edges and in previously unmapped areas. The broader takeaway is clear: As climate conditions shift, backward-looking maps alone are no longer sufficient. Across geographies, we are consistently finding that a meaningful portion of risk remains hidden from traditional frameworks. This is important evidence that hidden climate risk is not just a US story... It’s a global one. CBC coverage here: https://lnkd.in/e_3bv9E2

The escalating physical impacts of climate change are hidden in plain sight. Last week UK-based whistleblower organisation Inside Track published a joint memo from a group of professionals working in the UK food supply chain to draw attention to mounting climate-induced food security risks for the country and beyond. Addressed to "Our investors, directors, owners and creditors", the memo highlights deteriorating supply chains, inability to source and an absence of seeing systems and interconnectivity as key components of the problem. It also states that "wishful strategy" is pervasive, where: "companies are increasingly alluding to a strategy of simply finding new sourcing regions as our current ones become untenable. This strategy is light on detail and fails to appreciate that multiple actors will be attempting to make the same transition in order to source multiple crops. It also misses the need for huge investment in order to develop new sourcing regions." The memo concludes with recommended next steps for investors, including a suggestion that portfolio risk assessments consider the implications of "global shocks to the food supply system". This is highly recommended reading for all.