Connecting climate analytics to real-world adaptation

Physical climate risk data: the more we learn, the less we know? Khalid Azizuddin's recent piece in *Responsible Investor captures well what many practitioners are grappling with today: - asset-level data that remain incomplete or hard to interpret; - physical hazard exposure often disconnected from financial materiality; - little visibility on supply chains or customers; - adaptation and resilience efforts largely ignored; - and a risk of over-simplifying complex realities into a single “score.” Some three years ago, EDHEC Business School set out to address exactly these challenges, working to advance climate risk modelling and make decision-useful for investors, companies, and public authorities. In this work, we have developed: 🔹 a blueprint for a new generation of probabilistic climate scenarios; 🔹 high-resolution geospatial modeling capabilities to allow for geographic and sectoral downscaling, consistent with each scenario; 🔹 an open database of decarbonisation and resilience technologies through the #ClimaTech project, which officially launched this week. While the research is public, the new EDHEC Climate Institute has also been assisting a school-backed venture, Scientific Climate Ratings (SCR), which integrates this research to deliver forward-looking quantification of the #financialmateriality of climate risks for infrastructure companies and investors worldwide. While SCR provides a rating scale for comparability, it avoids the trap of over-simplification. Each rating is backed by probabilistic scenario modelling, analysis of physical and transition risk exposures, and explicit accounting for adaptation measures. The result is a synthesis that remains transparent, interpretable, and anchored in scientific rigour. Together, these initiatives aim to move the discussion from data abundance to decision relevance, equipping practitioners with tools that connect climate science, finance, and strategy.

New paper – Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts Abstract “In an interconnected world, #climatechange impacts can cascade across sectors and regions, creating #systemicrisks. Here we analyse cascading climate change impacts on the EU, originating from outside the region, and identify critical intervention points for #adaptation. Using network analysis, we integrate stakeholder-co-produced impact chains with quantitative data for 102 countries across #foreignpolicy, human security, #trade and #finance. Our archetypal impact cascade model reveals critical intervention points related to water, livelihoods, agriculture, infrastructure and economy, and violent conflict. Livelihood instability, with violence exacerbating conditions in conflict-prone regions, tends to amplify risks of cascading impacts emerging from low-income countries. High-income countries can trigger cascading impacts through, for example, reduced crop exports. Our findings highlight the importance of policy coherence in addressing interconnected vulnerabilities rather than isolated risks. Thus, agricultural intensification without integrated water management may exacerbate scarcity, whereas safeguarding livelihoods alleviates cascading risks related to forced migration, violent conflict and instability.” Read more below. Auer, C., Reyer, C.P.O., Adamczak, W. et al. Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts. Nat. Clim. Chang. 15, 1226–1233 (2025). https://lnkd.in/eGg9vitS

𝙃𝙖𝙫𝙚 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙢𝙖𝙥𝙥𝙚𝙙 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙘𝙡𝙞𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙠 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙤𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙚? Most companies haven't. And I don't mean the direct risks – the flooding of your own facilities or heat stress on your workforce. I mean the hidden vulnerabilities within your supply chain. Here's what we know: extreme weather events are intensifying. At just 1.3°C of warming, the effects are clear: prolonged heatwaves, intensifying droughts, more frequent wildfires, and severe storms that bring heavier rainfall. These events have already caused thousands of deaths and displaced millions. But here's the part most boardrooms miss: you don't need to be in a flood zone to be flood-affected. Your Tier 2 supplier in South Asia might be. The agricultural inputs you depend on might come from regions experiencing consecutive crop failures. The transport routes you've used for decades might now face seasonal disruptions you haven't priced in. So what can you actually do? 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗺𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴. Look beyond your own operations: 🔹 Where are your critical suppliers located, and what climate hazards are intensifying there? 🔹 Which materials or components have concentrated geographic sources? 🔹 What alternative routes, suppliers, or materials could build resilience? 𝗘𝗻𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻. Your suppliers are living these realities daily. Ask them what they're seeing, what's changing, what support they need. 𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱 𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗽𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆, not just ESG reports. This isn't about compliance – it's about business continuity. Climate adaptation needs finance, planning, and cross-functional ownership. The 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗔𝘁𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 makes something else clear: these impacts fall hardest on those with the least protection. Communities facing poverty, fragile infrastructure, and limited services bear disproportionate burdens. Globally, #women carry an unequal burden, due to their underrepresentation in leadership and unpaid caring responsibilities. The data gaps mirror the protection gaps, especially in the Global South, where impacts are severe but monitoring and modeling remain under-resourced. And here's the critical point: 𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗽𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗲𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵. Rapid emission reductions remain essential to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. We need both. 𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗶𝘀 𝗯𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸. And it's already here.

💡 Has science been helpful in providing measurement tools, especially indicators and metrics, to assess urban climate adaptation? Not yet. 🚀 While in Oslo for the Lead Authors Meeting of the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Cities, I’m pleased to share our latest article, now published in npj Urban Sustainability https://lnkd.in/eG2WT9J4 🪅 “Conventional approaches to indicators and metrics undermine urban climate adaptation” systematically examines how current measurement practices fall short of capturing real progress on adaptation in cities worldwide. Through a review of nearly 140 studies and more than 900 indicators and metrics, we uncover a highly fragmented measurement landscape that often fails to meet the needs of adaptation decision-making. Key findings include: 🧱 The dominance of input- and output-focused metrics that track effort and immediate results rather than long-term impact. 🏚️ A strong bias toward city-scale indicators, with far less attention to neighbourhood and household scales. 📜 Limited integration of governance, social, and economic dimensions in measurement frameworks. 🧠 A lack of theoretical grounding and practical guidance amid a sea of highly technical, uncontextualised proposals. 🫵 Insufficient attention to units of measurement, intended users, and real-world applications. This research is essential reading for scientist, practitioners, policymakers, and climate (adaptation) professionals seeking more meaningful urban adaptation, and more meaningful ways to measure it, for learning, accountability, and impact. Let's discuss. 💡 Indicators matter. In every field. But it’s not only about the indicator itself, it’s about the ecosystem of actors, applications, and interpretations around it. Global efforts such as the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) can help clarify measurement needs, but urban adaptation challenges are complex, cross-sectoral, and deeply interconnected. Much more work is needed to support practitioners, policymakers, and researchers in applying and learning from ongoing urban adaptations. 👉 https://lnkd.in/eG2WT9J4 #openaccess 🙏 This work has been a long time in the making, from early ideas, through a lengthy review process, to finally seeing it out. Huge thanks to all the co-authors (Andressa V. Mansur, Samraj Sahay, Ph.D, Laura Helmke-Long, Massimiliano Granceri Bradaschia, Ane Villaverde García, Leire Garmendia Arrieta, Prince Dacosta Aboagye, PhD, PISEP, Patricia Mwangi (PhD, MISK), William Lewis, Obed Asamoah, Patricia Mwangi (PhD, MISK), borja izaola, Dr Ellie Murtagh and Ira Feldman ) for their dedication, patience, and collaboration, and to International Platform on Adaptation Metrics for planting the seed that made this work possible. IMAGINE adaptation European Research Council (ERC) BC3 - Basque Centre for Climate Change 💭 Dr. Diana Reckien Dr Stacy-ann Robinson A/Prof Johanna Nalau Emilie Beauchamp Sean Goodwin

CMIP7 climate model data will start to roll out soon and will ultimately feed into the next IPCC AR7 report expected around 2028. This new round is a big step forward in making data application‑ready for users across society, including financial institutions. A key shift is that CMIP7 is explicitly designed around Impacts & Adaptation (I&A) Opportunities: 60 variable groups that bundle what is needed to run impact models or derive climate indicators, for example for Agriculture and Food Systems Impacts or Energy System Impacts. Instead of treating bias‑correction and downscaling as second-class components, CMIP7 plans for them from the start, with more standardised, archive‑wide access to sub‑daily data, higher spatial resolution and the variables needed for bias‑adjusted and downscaled products. This should make it easier to build robust climate services, local risk assessments and asset‑level analyses on top of the same data. Compared with CMIP6, CMIP7 aims to reduce methodological fragmentation by standardising variables and by explicitly connecting Earth system outputs to real‑world decision needs, including those of regulators and financial institutions. In practice, that means better hazard inputs for heat, drought, flood and wind risk models, and in addition more comparable products across providers. In general, we should see a smoother pipeline from global climate scenarios to portfolio‑ and asset‑level insights. CMIP7 remains a complex, protocol‑based global community effort, but with a much stronger focus on decision‑relevant variables for sectors such as energy, agriculture, water, ecosystems, cities, health and finance. For anyone interested in how this is being set up, this paper is an excellent overview of the initiative and its priorities: https://lnkd.in/evjrpxYz

✋ Climate risk is no longer a distant threat — it’s now a core investment decision. 👉 The new report, “Assessing Climate Risk, Framing Resilience, and Reporting Impact: A Guide for Climate Finance Practitioners” by Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) highlights this. ✋ Key takeaways: 🌍 Climate risk must be embedded in finance: Intensifying hazards such as floods, heatwaves, droughts, and storms increasingly threaten infrastructure, supply chains, and livelihoods. Integrating climate risk into financial decision-making is now essential for resilient investments. 📊 Three-step framework for climate finance: The guide proposes a practical approach for climate finance vehicles: 1️⃣ Assess and manage climate risk 2️⃣ Define a clear adaptation and resilience investment thesis 3️⃣ Measure and report climate resilience impact. 🧭 Risk assessment strengthens investment resilience: Mapping beneficiaries, assets, supply chains, and climate hazards helps investors identify vulnerabilities and avoid maladaptation while protecting financial performance. 💰 A strong adaptation thesis unlocks capital: Investors increasingly require a clear link between climate risks, vulnerabilities, and how investments reduce those risks to qualify as adaptation finance. 📈 Impact measurement is critical: Tracking resilience outcomes—such as water availability, agricultural productivity, and reduced climate-related disruptions—helps demonstrate real-world impact and attract funding. 💬 As climate risks intensify, should every investment strategy incorporate climate risk assessment and resilience planning as a standard practice? #ClimateFinance #ClimateRisk #ClimateAdaptation #Resilience #SustainableFinance #ClimateAction #ImpactInvesting #EnergyTransition ✋ Follow my substack, 'The Monthly Global Energy & Climate Transition Roundup', covering top developments in clean energy and climate. 👉 Subscribe for free at https://lnkd.in/d-6Efimt

📚 Excited to share the white paper from the World Economic Forum, in collaboration with Boston Consulting Group, on "Climate Adaptation: Unlocking Value Chains with the Power of Technology". This report provides crucial insights into how businesses can leverage technology to build resilience against the escalating impacts of climate change. Key Takeaways: 1️⃣ Urgency: Climate change is no longer a distant threat. 2024 was the hottest year on record, exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation. 2️⃣ Value Chain Focus: Climate risks impact entire value chains, not just individual businesses. Collaboration is essential for building resilience and realizing collective benefits. 3️⃣ Technology as an Enabler: Frontier technologies like AI, Earth observation, IoT, and drones are crucial for understanding, anticipating, and responding to climate impacts. 4️⃣ Collaboration Platforms: Investing in collaborative platforms allows businesses to share data, technologies, and capabilities, maximizing the impact of adaptation efforts. 5️⃣ Economic Case for Adaptation: Investing in adaptation, while requiring upfront costs, significantly reduces the long-term economic losses associated with climate change. Benefit-to-cost ratios are estimated to be as high as 43:1 in some sectors. The report highlights several specific opportunities for businesses to leverage technology for climate adaptation across three key value chains: ❇️ Precision farming, digital agriculture platforms, agri-biotech, and novel farming systems can enhance yields, optimize resource use, and build resilience against extreme weather. ❇️ Climate impact modeling, real-time energy management, early warning systems, and microgrids can enhance grid stability, optimize energy use, and ensure power continuity during disasters. ❇️ Digital supply chain platforms, predictive maintenance, advanced cooling/heating systems, and automatic protection systems can minimize disruptions, optimize operations, and protect assets. Despite the opportunities, the report acknowledges several challenges: ✴️ Businesses need to better quantify and communicate the return on investment for adaptation projects to secure funding. ✴️ A lack of standardized metrics and regulations for adaptation makes it difficult to measure progress and ensure interoperability. ✴️ Limited access to climate and value chain data hinders effective planning and decision-making. The report calls for global leaders to take six key actions to set up collaborative adaptation platforms: 1) Come together and engage in dialogue; 2) Align under a shared purpose; 3) Establish clear standards; 4) Unlock and share data; 5) Invest in technological foundations; and 6) Deploy locally and scale-up globally. #ClimateAdaptation #Technology #Sustainability #Collaboration #ValueChains #Resilience #Decarbonization #EnergyTransition

𝐌𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐬𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥-𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐦𝐬. 𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐚𝐝𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. In this article, I ponder a question that interests me a lot: How can we build climate risk solutions for the real economy and actually aid climate adaptation on the ground? My argument is: Climate risk analytics software is conceptually rooted in finance: built for insurers, large banks, and asset managers. It is strong at portfolio screenings, risk exposure dashboards, and statistical modeling. But this focus misses the needs of most real-economy firms. For them, software must offer practical asset-level information, integrate into existing workflows, and offer decision-ready outputs. Because climate adaptation happens on the ground in the real economy, I think we need to address this gap to accelerate adaptation.