Climate impact on security sector trends

When nature becomes a security risk Britain’s national security thinking has long focused on familiar threats. A new U.K. government assessment adds another. Global biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, it argues, now pose a direct and growing risk to national security, with implications that reach beyond conservation into food supply, economic stability, migration, and conflict. The assessment is explicit about its framing. This is not a scientific review or environmental strategy, but an intelligence-style analysis designed to inform security planning under uncertainty. Its central conclusion is delivered with high confidence: ecosystem degradation already threatens U.K. prosperity and security, and those risks are likely to intensify through mid-century. At the core of the report is the idea of cascading risk. Ecosystems underpin food production, water availability, climate regulation, and disease control. When they degrade, effects rarely remain local. Crop failures ripple through global markets. Water scarcity destabilizes fragile states. Disease outbreaks spread rapidly through interconnected societies. Biodiversity loss is framed not as a standalone environmental issue, but as a multiplier of existing economic, social, and political stresses. The assessment identifies several pathways from ecosystem decline to security risk. Degraded soils, fisheries, and pollinator populations reduce yields and increase volatility in global food markets. With roughly 40% of its food imported, the U.K. is exposed to disruption in major producing regions, particularly for fresh produce, animal feed, and fertilizers. Food insecurity and declining rural livelihoods are also major drivers of migration. Scarcity can intensify conflict and enable organized crime. Ecosystem degradation further raises pandemic risk by increasing the likelihood of zoonotic disease outbreaks. The report highlights “critical ecosystems” whose collapse would have outsized global effects, including the Amazon and Congo rainforests, boreal forests in Russia and Canada, the Himalayas, and coral reefs and mangroves in Southeast Asia. Severe degradation in any of these regions could disrupt food systems, alter weather patterns, and release large carbon stores, compounding climate risks. While confidence is high that these systems are degrading, the timing of irreversible tipping points remains uncertain. For the U.K., food security stands out as a central vulnerability. The report is blunt: under current diets and production systems, Britain cannot feed itself without imports. Ecosystem collapse abroad would translate directly into domestic inflation, dietary constraints, and political pressure. The assessment avoids apocalyptic language. It emphasizes uncertainty and limits of knowledge. Yet its implication is clear: Biodiversity loss has moved from the margins of environmental policy into the core of national security planning. ⚠️ Full piece: https://mongabay.cc/iyd8Jn

Security no longer starts at the border — it starts in nature. UK intelligence delivers a hard truth: ecosystems are now national security infrastructure, on par with energy grids and defence capabilities. Environmental degradation isn’t an “environmental issue”. It’s a threat multiplier — fuelling instability, conflict, migration, and supply-chain shocks. And here’s the uncomfortable part: Distant forests, soils and water systems are strategic assets for our own security. If they fail, our security architecture fails with them. The real risk? That we keep designing security for yesterday’s threats. If we don’t look further down the road — beyond election cycles and current crises — we will keep being surprised by predictable shocks. Ignoring nature is no longer naïve. It’s reckless. 📄 This report deserves attention. #Security #ClimateSecurity #Geopolitics #Biodiversity #Resilience #StrategicRisk #FoodSecurity #IMCCS

Defense Science Board: Climate Change and Global Security Put down your summer beach reads and pick up the substantive, serious and sobering study on Climate Change and Global Security that was recently published by the Defense Science Board. It makes the clear case that climate change is a "threat multiplier" that will enhance instability, increase likelihood of conflict, multiple infrastructure vulnerabilities and put service members' health at risk. "Time is of the essence" and DoD must act now to be able to operate effectively in a future impacted by climate change. I thought the report did a nice job of building on DoD's earlier, Climate Adaptation Plan. In addition to the key findings and recommendations, I found a few very significant items that I want to highlight: ·       Climate science is clear and the long-term models increasingly compelling – the world is getting hotter, and the adverse effects are complex, interconnected and compounding.  ·       The science will only improve as more sensors, satellites and AI driven analytics provide better insights into current and future climate change effects. ·       DoD needs to fuse and incorporate this information across the Department and major commands to achieve “climate informed decision making” and a “climate literate workforce.” ·       Service members and equipment (aircraft) are and will increasingly be operating on “the margin of safety.” ·       There is not enough money to adapt all existing DoD infrastructure and bases to the future effects of climate change – time to now start making hard decision about which bases to abandon, which missions to move and how to effectively adapt what remains.   This is sad, but necessary. ·       In anticipation of GHG mitigation efforts failing, DoD must understand all aspects of Solar Radiation Modification (geoengineering) and be prepared to both conduct this mission and to detect activities by other nations. ·       DoD has a significant national role to play in the development and fielding of advanced nuclear micro-reactors.  ·       DoD is stronger  and more capable, under all circumstances, when it works with allies and partners. Read the full report for detailed insights on the critical intersection of climate change and global security: [Link to the report](https://lnkd.in/dvWWhwxN)

I’ve posted often about the growing investment focus on resilience — and the evolution of “climate investing” into a broader, more strategic resilience lens. Since interning at NOAA early in my career, running climate models to predict water-scarcity stress in Colorado, these themes have always been inseparable for me. Great to see the discourse (and capital) increasingly focusing on this. J.P. Morgan’s new publication is a great example of this shift, bringing welcome clarity to the intersection of climate and security. Highly recommend giving it a read: https://lnkd.in/e4JdT5Uz The report highlights resilience as a strategic asset — with several investment areas gaining momentum: • Resilient infrastructure & distributed energy: microgrids, adaptive architecture, and systems built for extreme weather • Supply-chain security & resource resilience: critical minerals, essential manufacturing, reducing systemic fragility • Smart data + tech-enabled resilience: sensors, AI, secure data infrastructure, and cyber technologies to anticipate and respond to climate-driven risks This isn’t about watering down climate action. It’s about recognising that climate readiness is now central to economic and national security — and that resilience investing is both a risk mitigant and a driver of long-term innovation and growth. Curious how others are seeing this shift toward resilience and security in their work.

“Climate” is a word that is not ‘en vogue’ these days, to put it mildly. On Thursday, as I stood in line to get my MSC2026 badge another participant asked me what I did, “I am the climate envoy”. He started laughing. “Good luck with that” And indeed, during the many discussions over the past few days, climate was not mentioned often. And yet, in a poll commissioned by the Munich Security Conference Kekst, CNC showed that while G7 nations worried greatly over disinformation campaigns from enemies, climate change generally was consistently top of the worries. And for Brazil, India, China and South Africa, climate change generally was top of bill since 2021 through 2025 as ‘top concern’. One can stop talking about climate change, but it is still happening and wreaking havoc. And as the discussions deepened, it came up without fail. There was general agreement that climate change negatively impacts our economy, our infrastructure and our public health. But it also has a direct link with peace, security and defence. Nobody knows this better than the military. Military bases and military missions have to deal with rising seas and what that means for ports, extreme temperatures in which soldiers cannot train or fight. Increased salinity in oceans hampering sonar, less air density hampering lift for heavy planes and helicopters due to high temperatures. The increased geopolitical jostling over the Arctic is because rising temperatures are opening up sea lanes and changing the constellation of power. And conflicts over arable land, critical minerals and water On the battlefield, fossil fuel convoys are vulnerable, expensive and inefficient. ‘Energy on spot’ is becoming important and Ukraine is showing the way. Renewable energy, microgrids and in the future Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) should help power our bases. These bases must be hardened against hurricanes and flooding. Investment upfront saves money that otherwise would have to go into eventual repairs instead of defence spending. I came away re-energised, meeting so many kindred spirits from the military, think tanks, policy makers, and businesses who get this. People who understand that the old way of thinking “climate action is for the planet, industrial policy is for the economy, and defence is about the borders” must be shed. It is time this analysis turns into a paradigm shift and into action. As we unleash billions of taxpayers euros to increase our deterrence, it is imperative that we do so jointly in the EU where we can, and also with a view to dual use technology, strengthening our industrial base, and piggyback riding on a clean transition. Because talking about climate change and the clean transition is talking about energy sovereignty, economics and security. I am grateful for MSC 2026 offering the space for these important discussions. Erin Sikorsky Tom Middendorp Benedikt Franke Benedikta von Seherr-Thoss Louise van Schaik Peter Hulshof Bob Deen

Climate risks don’t act alone, especially in vulnerable regions. They combine with political tensions, livelihood stress, and weak institutions to create complex, fast-moving challenges for peace and human security. And so, we need tools that can answer critical questions faced by practitioners today: 🔹 Where is climate amplifying conflict and insecurity? 🔹 How do shocks to food, water, and livelihoods drive tension? 🔹 How can we integrate community knowledge with data for early warning? 🔹 What gaps in policy or institutions stall effective response? This is why my colleagues and I developed the Integrated Climate Security Framework (ICSF) - a tool to inform real-world decisions in fragile and climate-vulnerable settings. So what can our integrated framework do in the field? ✔️ Help target interventions in climate-security hotspots ✔️ Profile vulnerable groups with layered socio-economic and exposure data ✔️ Understand how food and nutrition insecurity mediates conflict risk ✔️ Reveal policy and institutional gaps that shape (or stall) adaptation ✔️ Build shared understanding across stakeholders—from local to national The ICSF was applied in many countries across the globe, but was designed to be adapted. If you’re a practitioner, implementer, or policymaker working on climate and security, it may offer a useful structure for your context too. 📄 We published the framework on PLOS Climate. Read here: https://lnkd.in/e8djSPUG

“With the scarcity of rain and destruction of forests, we started having conflicts over resources. When the rains did arrive, they caused flooding as the cliffs that protected us eroded due to deforestation," I believe there are no stronger words than those of the people most affected to convey the realities they face and the responses required. This story from Mali provides a rare glimpse. "We re-established our traditional laws for sustainable use of forests. Since then, trees and forests have begun to regenerate, reducing conflicts and floods. Now, people in towns like Djénné and Mopti are also following our model.” – Salif Aly Guindo, President of Barahogon, a traditional Dogon institution revitalised to protect forests and natural resources In Mali, the impacts of climate change are not only environmental but also profoundly interlinked with peace and security. This new story illustrates how integrated climate action can strengthen resilience, support livelihoods and ease pressures that exacerbate fragility. The voices of Mali’s communities – from forest guardians and women leaders to farmers – remind us that when climate responses are tied to adaptation, governance, and peacebuilding, they can become powerful pathways to stability and prosperity. #ClimatePeaceSecurity (Story from UNDP & UNDP Mali) Parth Joshi, Adam Maiga, Jennifer Baumwoll, Catherine Wong, Serge Ndjekouneyom, Pierre Célestin BENGONO, Jean de Dieu Djasnan DJERAIBAYE, Roland Seri, Aimee Brown, Mehmet Erdogan, Kate Jean Smith, Lieneh Modalal, Dr. Charles Nyandiga, Daisy Mukarakate, Dorine Jn Paul, Valentin Hervouet, Nazanine Moshiri https://lnkd.in/e5agPQ5v

🪖🌍 In the latest episode of America Adapts, I talk with Erin Sikorsky , Director of the The Center for Climate and Security and author of a new book Climate Change on the Battlefield: International Military Responses to the Climate Crisis. We explore why climate change is no longer just a humanitarian issue—it’s a full-blown national security threat. Erin breaks down: 🔥 Climate stress is eroding global military readiness 🗺️Why national adaptation plans are critical tools for strategic resilience 🇨🇳And how China is actively integrating climate risks into its geopolitical playbook—while the U.S. backpedals under political pressure She also highlights which countries are leading the way—and what happens when nations ignore the threat. 🎧 Podcast here: https://lnkd.in/gSJjUXzn #ClimateSecurity #China #ClimateChange #MilitaryReadiness #ClimateRisk #Adaptation

Update: This past year, I had the opportunity to serve as a Fellow with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's Climate Change and Security Center of Excellence. The results of that work are now out: a manuscript on climate change, sea level rise and coastal erosion in the Arctic, and their security implications for NATO and its partners. Climate change, sea level rise and coastal erosion are critical issues in high latitudes. The Arctic is warming about 2-4 times faster than the global avearge. As the Arctic warms, sea ice melts, changing the dynamics of the region. Shipping across the Arctic Ocean will expand, creating economic benefits for shippers, but also increasing the need for patrols, for search and rescue and environmental clean-up. A thawing ocean will also lead to more coastal erosion, as more open water leads to more waves. This will lead to challenges for structures, like runways or radar stations, that are located across the coast. These issues become even more important in areas of permafrost melt. As many in the coastal field know, resilience is possible, and often practical. There are things operators of coastal infrastructure, including NATO and its partners, can do to strengthen coastal infrastructure during these times of change. Want to learn more. You can find the full research here. https://lnkd.in/g9ru2QxX #climate #arctic #nato #climatechange #coastal #sealevel NATO Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence (CCASCOE) NATO The Center for Climate and Security

The United States Department of Defense has released the Defense Science Board study on Climate Change and Global Security, on which I served. It uses the term I coined and title of my forthcoming book, to state " Climate change acts as a "#threatmultiplier," amplifying existing vulnerabilities, enhancing regional instability, and generally fostering conditions conducive to conflict." The study also recommends how to prepare to operate in a climate-changed world through more resilience, improved defense decision making tools, and engaging with allies and partners on #climatesecurity cooperation. Thanks to Michael Franken Tomas Diaz de la RubiaEric Evansand Kevin Doxey and the DSB team for leadership and vision. https://lnkd.in/eYca-2V2