Finance

Energy is once again dominating headlines all over the world. Gas and oil prices are volatile, key shipping routes face geopolitical pressure, and policymakers are concerned about supply risks. The renewed uncertainty is a reminder of an uncomfortable reality: the next energy crisis isn’t an if – it’s a when, and a question of how prepared we are. A defining challenge of this decade, and one that now feels more urgent than ever, is how to build a resilient energy system. One that minimises structural dependencies and is designed for rising electricity demand. The imperative of our time: The more we electrify, the less we import fossil fuels. The less we import, the more resilient we become. The course of action is clear: ▪️ Relentlessly scale renewables: Slowing the buildout will not reduce costs. Quite the opposite – delay compounds system costs for the entire economy. ▪️ Fix the grids: As fast as possible, as efficiently as possible, and at the lowest possible cost. Before they become even more of a bottleneck. ▪️ Secure 24/7 electricity supply: When the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining, renewables need reliable backup in the form of battery storage and hydrogen-ready gas fired power plants. But gas should serve only as a backup, with renewables and batteries reducing its utilisation. ▪️ Reduce gas supply dependence with infrastructure and diversification: We must not replace old dependencies with new ones. Diversification of gas supplies is key. And the physical prerequisite is an import infrastructure with buffers. We need the planned LNG terminals, complemented by a nationally held gas reserve to help ensure secure supply in winter. ▪️ Electrify everything that makes sense: The more we can power with mostly homegrown electrons, the less dependent we become on fossil imports. Other energy import-dependent countries like Japan and China have electrification rates that are around 10 percentage points higher than Germany’s. This shows where the path forward lies. Electrification reduces reliance on imported fossil fuels, which in turn strengthens overall resilience. The time to act is now.

What are the trends that will shape fintech in 2026? Here is my top 10 list. 𝟭. 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘀 as settlement infrastructure Stablecoins will be used at the settlement layer of financial services to bypass cross-border delays, cut-off times, trapped liquidity, and fee opacity in existing rails. They will sit underneath banks and payment schemes for specific B2B, treasury, and platform payout flows rather than replacing them. 𝟮. Commerce and payments become increasingly 𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁-𝗱𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗻 An increasing share of commerce and payment activity will be initiated by software agents outside of pilots, as shared protocols, governance models, and accountability frameworks compete for adoption across the value chain. 𝟯. 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵𝘀 reclaim the 𝗯𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 stack More fintechs will pursue banking licences to gain direct control over deposits, settlement, and economics, primarily to reduce dependence on sponsor banks and external balance sheets rather than to operate as full-service banks. 𝟰. The rise of 𝗔𝗜-𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 fintechs A new generation of fintechs is being built with AI embedded into core operations by default, allowing them to operate at lower marginal cost and handle higher volumes vs. legacy operating models. 𝟱. The 𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝘀 escalate As AI agents become widespread, incumbents and challengers will increasingly compete for control of the agentic layer. Incumbents will embed agents into existing platforms, while challengers will position agents above multiple services to capture distribution. 𝟲. Fintech play moves 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗼 𝗱𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗵 Fintech competition will shift from broad coverage to execution within specific industries. Advantage will come from handling sector-specific cash flows, risk, and workflows, favouring embedded vertical players over horizontal platforms. 𝟳. Increased fintech 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 activity Fintech consolidation will increase as firms acquire capabilities rather than build them internally. Infrastructure providers will add vertical functionality, scaled technology firms will fill capability gaps, and incumbents will consolidate for defense. 𝟴. 𝗙𝗿𝗮𝘂𝗱 shifts to agent manipulation Fraud will increasingly target agent-driven workflows rather than individual accounts or cards. Attackers will influence outcomes through input manipulation, synthetic interactions, and falsified context. 𝟵. Banks 𝘁𝗼𝗸𝗲𝗻𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘀' play Banks will expand focus on tokenised deposits to retain control over settlement and liquidity, particularly in wholesale and treasury contexts. 𝟭𝟬. 𝗧𝗼𝗸𝗲𝗻𝗶𝘇𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 moves to the infrastructure layer Tokenization will advance where it improves core market infrastructure, with adoption concentrated in wholesale uses such as settlement, collateral management, and fund administration. What's missing? Opinions: my own 𝐒𝐮𝐛𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐲 𝐧𝐞𝐰𝐬𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫: https://lnkd.in/dkqhnxdg

It might not feel like it, but Britain is not unique in facing difficult budget choices. France and Germany have also seen governments destabilised or fall over attempts to pass budgets. Low growth, ageing populations and rising demands on the welfare state are putting pressure on public finances right across the continent. What is striking, however, is how some of the countries that were once held up as cautionary tales during the eurozone crisis (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) have responded. They undertook painful reforms: raising retirement ages, restructuring their welfare systems, making labour markets more flexible and, in some cases, linking pensions to life expectancy. As a result, they are now seeing stronger growth and lower borrowing costs than many of their northern neighbours. By contrast, there has been less urgency in the UK this past year. We are already on course to spend far more on benefits and debt interest in the next decade, even before additional pressures on the health and welfare systems are factored in. Simply opting for higher spending without confronting the underlying structure of the state is not a sustainable strategy. The lesson from Europe is not that reform is easy or popular. It rarely is. But it is better to confront these choices on your own terms than to wait for markets or external shocks to force them upon you. That is the debate we need to have in Britain: how to protect the most vulnerable while reshaping the welfare state and public spending so that our economy can grow and our finances remain credible. Read more in my column for today's Sunday Times here: https://lnkd.in/eTuWcNBK

Should regulators certify agents like pilots or doctors? Doctors and pilots can’t take a single step without a license. Yet AI agents, increasingly making medical judgments or piloting decisions in simulations, face zero checks. That contrast keeps me up at night. I’ll be honest: I use AI every single day. It makes me faster, smarter, and more productive. But here’s the thought that gnaws at me: if my AI agent makes a mistake, do I own it? Or does no one? That gap—between power and accountability—is what worries me most. Licensing is more than bureaucracy. It’s a social contract. → A pilot’s license means: “You can trust me to carry 200 lives safely.” → A doctor’s license means: “You can trust me to act in your best interest.” → But when an AI agent makes a decision, who signs that contract? Here’s the deeper challenge people overlook: AI doesn’t stand still. A doctor retrains every few years. A pilot re-certifies on new aircraft types. An AI agent changes with every update, every dataset, every fine-tune. That means a license can’t be a one-time stamp. It has to be continuous, dynamic, evolving. Otherwise, yesterday’s “safe” agent could be tomorrow’s liability. In my opinion, here’s the only way forward: ✅ Extend human licenses in high-stakes domains. A doctor can vouch for their medical AI. A pilot can vouch for their cockpit assistant. Accountability flows through them. ✅ Require continuous certification of agents—not every decade, but every update. ✅ Guarantee human override. People must always have the right to say: “I want a human.” For me, this isn’t about slowing progress. It’s about protecting trust—the one currency we can’t afford to lose in the agentic era. Do we copy old licensing systems, or invent a new, living framework for AI accountability? #AI #Leadership #AIagents #FutureOfWork #Regulation #Ethics

The European Parliament has officially passed Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) legislation that fundamentally shifts the responsibility for textile waste management to fashion brands and retailers – with far-reaching global implications. This new law requires all producers, including e-commerce platforms, to cover the full cost of collecting, sorting, and recycling textiles, regardless of whether they are based within or outside the EU. The financial burden of Europe's textile waste now falls squarely on the brands that create it. What are the critical business implications? UNIVERSAL SCOPE: The legislation applies to all producers selling in the EU market, including those of clothing, accessories, footwear, home textiles, and curtains. No company is exempt based on location. FAST FASHION PENALTY: Member states must specifically address ultra-fast and fast fashion practices when determining EPR financial contributions, creating cost penalties for unsustainable business models. GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION: As the world's largest textile importer, the EU's new rules will ripple across global supply chains, particularly impacting exporters from Bangladesh, Vietnam, China, and India who supply much of Europe's fast fashion. TIMELINE PRESSURE: Officially adopted September 2025, this creates immediate operational and financial planning requirements. COMPETITIVE RESHAPING: Brands and retailers will inevitably pass increased costs down their supply chains, fundamentally altering supplier relationships and pricing structures globally. What are the implications for various stakeholders? For CEOs and board members: This represents more than regulatory compliance – it's a complete business model transformation. Companies must now integrate end-of-life costs into product pricing, rethink supplier partnerships, and accelerate circular design strategies. For sustainability and decarbonisation executives: This creates unprecedented opportunities for circular economy solutions, sustainable material innovation, and traceability system development across global supply chains. Link: https://lnkd.in/dTyHtHuD #sustainablefashion #circulareconomy #textilwaste #epr #fashionindustry #sustainability #supplychainmanagement #fastfashion #environmentalregulation #businessstrategy #decarbonisation #textilerecycling #fashionceos #boardgovernance #climateaction #wastemanagement #producerresponsibility #fashionsustainability #textileindustry #greenbusiness

The inventor of the SAFE note Adeo Ressi just eliminated the $150,000 and 6-month tax on starting a VC fund. This is huge, so we need to talk about it. Traditionally: ⏱️ Time: Launching a fund can take 6-12 months from thesis to first investment. 💸 Money: The VC setup cost ranges from $50,000 to $150,000+, with annual operations adding another $50,000+. 😵💫 Complexity: Requires three separate entities (LP, GP, and ManCo), complex legal agreements, and multiple regulatory filings. 🏦 Fund Size: There is a minimum fund size averaging $10M to make the fund economically viable. Each LP typically needs to invest $100K+ minimum because smaller checks are unprofitable due to per-LP administrative costs. 📊 Track Record: In order to raise this type of fund, new managers need larger LPs, and these larger LPs often need to see an existing successful investment track record, which some new managers don't have. These barriers have created a venture ecosystem where only those with established networks, significant resources, and/or institutional backing can participate. In 2025: Adeo came up with the Start Fund, a vehicle addressing all of the above head-on: ⏱️ Time: Set up a fund in ONE DAY vs. 6-12 months. 💸 Money: ZERO setup fees vs. $50K-$150K+. 😵💫 Complexity: ONE Delaware series vehicle vs. three separate entities, with an LPA just 1/3 the size. 🏦 Fund Size: Viable with just $250K+ vs. $10M minimum, and can accept smaller LPs (as low as $25K) because administration is streamlined 📊 Track Record: Fully portable track record that counts as fund one when you move to fund two. The benefits for emerging managers are clear: the barriers to entry are lower, giving a much wider pool of candidates a chance to create impact and shape the future. But here's why this matters for... LPs - The Start Fund allows LPs to participate with smaller check sizes, making it easier to diversify their portfolio - More of their capital actually goes to startups rather than overhead fees Startups: - This means more availability of capital from a wider range of sources - Access to a more diverse pool of venture investors with specialized expertise The Start Fund could fundamentally could change WHO gets to allocate capital to the next generation of startups, and WHO will benefit financially from it. I want to know what you all think. ------------- ✍️ Myrto Lalacos Follow for more content on launching and investing in VC firms

If you want to buy a business in 2025, here’s what you need to know: There are plenty of deals out there. Good deals will always find the money to get across the finish line, via... • Cash • Investors • Seller financing • Conventional loans • Sweat equity •SBA loans But, SBA loans are getting a giant overhaul. I read through the new rules. Here are 5 new policy changes that stood out to me: First, lil disclaimer: SBA rules are crazy complicated. This is a high-level overview, but ALWAYS double-check info you find online before applying it to your situation. Now, let's get our business nerd on... Rule change #1: Seller financing limits You can't use seller notes for your entire down payment anymore. Only 5% of the required 10% can come from a seller note. And, the 2-year seller note option is going away. Starting June 1, seller notes must be on FULL standby for the ENTIRE loan term to count toward equity. Bottom line: Buyers need more cash upfront if you want an SBA loan. A seller-financed acquisition is always still possible but whenever policy changes happen, people get antsy. Rule change #2: Citizenship requirements 100% US owners ONLY. Every single owner, direct AND indirect, must be a U.S. citizen, national, or permanent resident. No exceptions. Rule change #3: Franchise directory Your franchise MUST be listed in the SBA Franchise Directory. If your franchise isn't on the official list, you won't qualify for SBA financing. The only exception? If the franchise agreement is "non-critical" AND contributes 50% or less of your revenue. Even then, specific conditions apply. Rule change #4: Guaranty fees New upfront fees for loans with maturity over 12 months: • Loans <$150K: 2% of guaranteed portion • $150K-$700K: 3% • $700K-$5M: 3.5% on first $1M + 3.75% on remainder No change to loans with maturity <12mos. Rule change #5: Credit not available elsewhere SBA now wants concrete evidence you can't get conventional financing – not just general statements. Lenders need to specifically explain why you don't qualify for non-SBA loans. This’ll mean: • Approvals are tougher • Paperwork increases • Fewer marginal applications get through 🤔 Why is this crackdown happening? The SBA's 7(a) loan program - the main one for acquisition financing - went into the red for the first time in over a decade. Now they're tightening the belt to make the program financially sustainable again. 💡 What ELSE is up with SMBs in 2025? So glad you asked... We actually put together a report on that. It's got something for everyone – current owners, biz buyers, startup founders, anyone who touches Main Street. Read it for $Free.99 right here → https://lnkd.in/gxAeQmPY

Climate Risks Are Financial Risks An alarming USD 1.14 trillion in corporate value, linked to the world's largest stock markets is exposed to severe socio-economic impacts from #climatechange by 2050. Data from the Climate Hazard and Vulnerability Index (CHVI) highlights a critical blind spot for many businesses: 📌 48 countries will be highly vulnerable to socio-economic climate impacts by mid-century, double today’s figure. 📌 Major emerging markets are expected to face significant climate-related disruptions. 📌 India alone accounts for over USD 1 trillion of the at-risk corporate assets, dramatically impacting global markets and supply chains. 🚨Companies must place dedicated climate leadership at the highest level to proactively identify risks, anticipate market disruptions, and strategically invest in long-term resilience. 🚨 Businesses should move beyond physical hazards to systematically report and manage socio-economic climate vulnerabilities. Transparent, detailed disclosures help stakeholders understand risks and encourage informed investments. 🚨 Corporates must prioritize investment in resilient infrastructure, diversified supply chains, and sustainable practices, particularly in vulnerable regions. This strategic foresight protects operational continuity and market valuation. The globalized nature of corporate operations means that climate vulnerability anywhere becomes a financial risk everywhere. 🌱 Is your company equipped with climate leadership at board level? Read more here 👇 https://lnkd.in/eFnsnjyY #ClimateRisk #ClimateLeadership #SustainableGovernance #ESG #BoardGovernance #InvestmentStrategy #Resilience #ClimateAction

There’s a missed opportunity in the investment world: over 95% of capital remains allocated to non-diverse funds. This leaves diverse-led funds undercapitalized, despite their proven ability to outperform. This disparity isn’t just about fairness — it’s about untapped potential. A report from the National Association of Investment Companies (NAIC) highlights systemic barriers: smaller commitments to diverse-managed funds, higher asset requirements and inconsistent support from corporate and union pension funds. These challenges restrict market growth and limit wealth creation in communities that could benefit most. Addressing these disparities is critical to building a more dynamic and equitable financial ecosystem. When diverse leaders manage funds, they bring unique perspectives, broader networks and innovative strategies that drive returns and create lasting economic impact. This mission is personal to me. Throughout my career, I’ve championed initiatives to expand opportunities for underrepresented entrepreneurs and fund managers. By supporting diverse leadership in finance, we not only unlock growth but also help close the #racialwealthgap and foster sustainable change. It’s time to reimagine how we allocate capital — embracing equality as both a value and a strategy. Together, we can fuel innovation, empower communities and strengthen our economy.

Introducing the Music Tech Ownership Ouroboros, 2025 edition ✨ The music-tech sector has come of age. What started as a relatively niche investment thesis five years ago has matured into a powerhouse market segment, drawing tens of billions in capital since 2020. For five years, we at Water & Music have been mapping these shifting power dynamics through our “Music Tech Ownership Ouroboros” — a living document that traces the complex web of investments, ownership stakes, and strategic acquisitions shaping music and tech. Our latest update adds over 30 new relationships to the map, primarily from growth investments and M&A deals in 2024. The takeaway: Private equity firms and major labels are locked in a battle for control over independent music infrastructure. As indie market share keeps climbing, owning the tech backbone is becoming as valuable as owning the actual rights. Highlights from 2024 include: - Hellman & Friedman's majority stake in Global Music Rights — making GMR the third PRO owned by a private equity firm - Virgin Music Group's acquisitions of Downtown Music ($775M), [PIAS], and Outdustry - Flexpoint Ford's growth investments in Create Music Group ($165M) and Duetti ($34M) - KKR's acquisition of Superstruct Entertainment ($1.4B) and debt financing in HarbourView Equity Partners ($500M) - EQT Group and TCV's co-ownership of Believe (alongside CEO Denis Ladegaillerie), as part of taking Believe private - Vinyl Group's acquisitions of Serenade, Mediaweek Australia, Funkified Events, and Concrete Playground Link to the full interactive chart with sources is in the comments. Would love to hear what you think, and if any of these deals feel particularly standout or surprising to you! #musicbusiness #musicindustry #musictech #privateequity #musicinvestment #musicrights