Demand for solar is surging around the world as high oil and gas prices drive an unprecedented acceleration in the global energy transition.
The March data from the Chinese customs authority gives us one of the first clear signals of how the world is responding.
The direction is unmistakable.
Solar exports from China - a leading indicator for global solar adoption - surged in March, doubling to 68 GW. That's equivalent to the total installed solar capacity of Spain.
And it's the regions most affected by the unfolding energy crisis that are seeing the sharpest increases in demand.
The March data shows just how broad this surge is:
✅ 50 countries set all-time records for solar imports
✅ Exports to Africa rose 176% - in particular Nigeria +519%, Ethiopia +391% and Kenya +207%
✅ Exports to Asia doubled - in particular India +141%, Malaysia +384% and Lao PDR +108%
Records were also set in other markets exposed to high fuel costs, including Japan, Australia and the EU.
Another trend is emerging. Exports of solar cells and wafers have now overtaken exports of panels, as countries in Africa and Asia begin moving up the value chain, building their own solar manufacturing and assembly capabilities.
We're witnessing how quickly countries respond to rising fossil fuel costs and risks – accelerating solar and electrification more broadly.
Performance Management in the Age of AI: the new 3‑Dimensional Model
For decades, the 9‑box grid shaped how organizations assessed talent—mapping individuals along two familiar axes:
✔ Business performance (“what”)
✔ Behaviors or potential (“how”)
Over time, many companies moved away from this model, concluding it oversimplified the complexity of human performance and sometimes reinforced bias more than it reduced it.
AI is fundamentally reshaping work, shortening the lifecycle of skills and creating new capability demands at a pace conventional frameworks were never designed to keep up with. As a result, a new paradigm for performance management is emerging.
Organizations are starting to consider a three‑dimensional approach to performance—one that integrates not just what people deliver and how they behave, but also how they grow.
The new 3D model consists of three axis:
1. Business Results: Measures impact, delivery, and contribution to outcomes.
2. Behaviors / Ways of Working: Captures collaboration, leadership etc.
and..
3. Skills Development: Assesses capability building, learning velocity, and readiness for future roles.
The third axis reflects a simple reality:
In an AI‑driven workforce, continuous skills development is no longer optional—it’s strategic.
IBM has begun to formalize this multidimensional view in its talent and rewards model. Their approach includes:
1. Integrating skills into pay: Base pay and equity linked to skill progression.
2. Balancing objectives: Business and skills goals carry equal weight
3. Future skills visibility: Regular communication on evolving skill requirements
see: https://lnkd.in/eTDE-XmE
Not every organization can replicate this model at scale, but it illustrates where performance management is heading.
The central questions are shifting. Not just: “Did someone deliver results?”
But also: “Are they developing the skills the organization will need next?” and
“Are they learning at the speed the environment requires?”
The move from a 2D grid to a 3D, capability‑driven framework may become one of the most consequential shifts in performance management in the age of AI—signaling a future where growth, adaptability, and skill relevance stand on equal footing with results.
Global energy security faces an unprecedented range of risks & uncertainties across multiple fuels & technologies. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook’s scenarios show the synergies & trade-offs with other priorities like affordability, access & climate: https://iea.li/3JTJphc
Newer vulnerabilities like critical minerals join traditional oil & gas risks. Geographic concentration in refining has grown for nearly all key minerals since 2020. One country dominates refining of 19 of 20 strategic minerals with a ~70% average share: https://iea.li/3LWnI0A
Securing supply chains for critical minerals – vital not only for grids, batteries & EVs but also for AI chips, jet engines, defence & other strategic industries – requires looking beyond mining. Strengthened efforts are also needed to diversify refining & processing.
Oil markets look well supplied in the near term, but the outlook varies. In the Current Policies Scenario, demand keeps rising through 2035 & beyond as electric vehicle sales stall outside China & Europe. In the Stated Policies Scenario, broader EV growth flattens global oil use around 2030.
New LNG project approvals have surged in 2025, adding to the coming wave of natural gas supply in the years ahead. About 300 bln cubic metres of new annual LNG export capacity is scheduled to start operation by 2030. But questions still linger about where all the new LNG will go.
A year ago, IEA said the world was moving quickly into the Age of Electricity – it’s clear today that age has already arrived. Electricity is the key energy source for sectors accounting over 40% of the global economy & the main energy source for most households.
Renewables are set to grow faster than any other major energy source across #WEO25 scenarios, led by solar PV. And nuclear’s comeback is underway, with global capacity set to rise by at least a third by 2035. Natural gas is also poised to play a growing role in power generation.
The Age of Electricity is set to reshape the nature of power system security. Careful attention is needed to ensure the availability of dispatchable sources, boost system flexibility & resilience, and expand & modernise the world’s grid networks.
As countries face rising energy security risks, the world is falling short on universal access. 730 mln people live without power, and nearly 2 bln rely on basic cooking methods. #WEO25 shows a path to electricity for all by 2035 & clean cooking by 2040, with LPG playing a key role.
With climate risks rising, WEO25 shows global warming regularly exceeding 1.5C by 2030 in all scenarios. The CPS sees emissions rise then plateau; in the STEPS, they peak then slowly decline. Only the updated net zero scenario brings temperatures back below 1.5C in the long term.
Explore the wealth of freely available energy analysis in #WEO25: https://iea.li/3LWnI0A
And join the lead authors, Laura Cozzi & Tim Gould, and me for our LIVE launch event at 11 CET: https://iea.li/4qJGbNS
There has been much handwringing about the increasing credit problems of subprime borrowers and the fallout on the financial system and economy. Subprime borrowers are indeed suffering serious financial stress. The delinquency rate on #subprime loans (loans to borrowers with below a 660 Vantage score) jumped to 8.3% in September. This is the highest delinquency rate in September since 2010 in the immediate wake of the Global Financial Crisis. And the direction of travel is disconcerting. It is just more evidence of how hard-pressed lower and middle-income Americans are.
However, worries that losses on subprime loans will be a big blow to banks and other financial institutions are overdone. Subprime loans outstanding as of this September total $2.63 trillion, equal to 15.3% of all household debt outstanding. At their peak in 2007, they totaled $3.38 trillion, equal to 28.2% of outstanding debt. Outstanding subprime first mortgage loans are a shadow of what they were in the lead-up to the GFC, and there is about the same amount of subprime bank cards outstanding. Consistent with the recent bankruptcies in the auto sector, there are more subprime auto loans outstanding than prior to the GFC. Still, even so, they amount to just over $400 billion in outstanding. Not enough to do the financial system or the economy in. At least not yet.
This is the single most important paper to come out in our sector in recent weeks.
Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen investigate whether generative AI is leading to job losses in roles most exposed to AI – and how these effects differ by age and the way AI is used.
Key findings:
→ Young workers (ages 22-25) in high-AI-exposure jobs like software development and customer service experienced a 6% absolute drop in employment since late 2022, while employment for workers aged 35-49 grew by over 9%
→ This pattern only appears in jobs where AI automates work - jobs where AI augments human capabilities showed no employment decline for young workers
→ The changes are visible in hiring patterns rather than wages, suggesting companies are hiring fewer entry-level workers rather than cutting pay
AI may be creating a two-tier job market. I will be looking deeper into this in Exponential View in the coming days and weeks.
US$27.6 trillion moved through stablecoins last year - more than Visa and Mastercard combined. Regulators are stepping in - but their approaches are very different.
Still, 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺𝗲𝘀 are emerging:
· Reserves: stablecoins must be fully backed 1:1 by safe, liquid assets - typically cash or short-term government bonds - to preserve value and ensure redemption.
· Redemption rights: users must be able to cash out at face value, within timelines set by law - ranging from same-day (UAE, Hong Kong) to five days (Singapore).
· Independent custody: backing assets must be held separately from the issuer’s own funds, often by regulated custodians or in trust, to protect users in case of failure.
These shared principles reflect regulatory alignment on the minimum requirements for trust and stability in issuing and using stablecoins.
𝗕𝘂𝘁 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆’𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗹𝘆:
· Who can issue: some jurisdictions restrict this to banks (Japan, South Korea), while others permit non-bank fintechs (US, EU).
· Reserve rules: the US allows only cash and Treasuries; others like Japan and the UK permit a broader mix of safe assets.
· Redemption timelines: these differ significantly - affecting liquidity and user expectations.
· Cross-border limits: Some regimes block foreign-issued stablecoins unless they meet local regulatory standards (e.g. EU, UAE).
𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀:
· The US push is accelerating adoption - but puts pressure on non-US issuers to either comply with US rules or exit the market.
· Asia’s bank-led models favour control and stability but may limit openness and cross-border scale.
· UK–EU regulatory alignment will determine whether stablecoins can move freely between key markets - or remain siloed.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁:
· Stablecoin regulation is unfolding much like the early days of card networks - built jurisdiction by jurisdiction, with each market defining its own rules on issuance, custody, reserves, and redemption.
· Alignment may come, but not soon. Meanwhile, adoption is accelerating. Trillions are already flowing through stablecoins, and regulators are shifting from drafting rules to enforcing them.
· For issuers and infrastructure providers, waiting for harmonisation is a risk. Competing in this space means navigating a complex patchwork of rules, or losing access to key markets.
Opinions: my own, Graphic source and data points: EY
𝐒𝐮𝐛𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐲 𝐧𝐞𝐰𝐬𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫: https://lnkd.in/dkqhnxdg
When Mary Barra took over GM's HR department, she found a 10-page dress code policy. She replaced all 10 pages with just two words: "Dress appropriately."
The HR team panicked.
A senior director sent an angry email demanding more detailed rules.
But Barra held firm.
When the director called to complain that his team wore jeans to government meetings, she didn't cave.
Instead, she told him: "Have a conversation with your team."
Two weeks later, he called back excited.
His team had solved it themselves...they'd keep dress pants in their lockers for important meetings.
Here's what happened across GM:
1. Managers started making decisions instead of following rulebooks
2. Employee engagement improved as people felt trusted
3. Bureaucracy dropped as leaders focused on outcomes, not compliance
Barra realized: "If they can't handle 'dress appropriately,' what other judgment decisions are they not making?"
She built a culture where thinking mattered more than rule-following.
Most companies write longer policies to avoid problems.
Mary wrote shorter ones to create leaders.
How tech workers really feel about work right now
With insights from over 8,000 of you (possibly the largest survey of its kind), Noam Segal and I are excited to share the results of our first-ever large-scale tech worker sentiment survey.
What we discovered is that tech professionals are experiencing a fascinating mix of emotions about their careers in 2025.
Our biggest takeaways:
1. Burnout is at critical levels: Almost half of our respondents are experiencing significant burnout.
2. Tech workers are more optimistic than we expected—but optimism is declining: 58.5% of tech workers remain optimistic about their roles, and 54.8% remain optimistic about their careers. However, there has been a significant negative sentiment shift over the past year.
3. Startup founders are the happiest people in tech: They’re the only group growing more optimistic while consistently outranking everyone else in workplace well-being.
4. Managers need help: Only 26% of tech workers consider their managers highly effective, while over 40% view them as ineffective.
5. Where people work makes little difference in how they feel about work—on the surface. But dig deeper, and hybrid workers are the happiest, remote workers are doing well, and in-office workers are experiencing hidden frustrations.
6. Small-company employees are doing the best: They outperform their large-company counterparts on nearly every work sentiment measure, from job enjoyment to sense of belonging.
7. The mid-career slump: Mid-career workers are struggling the most with burnout, lower job enjoyment, and the most pessimism about the future.
8. A widespread gap in career clarity: Many tech workers don’t know what they should be doing to continue developing in their careers.
Two bonus takeaways you'll find at the end of the report:
1. Women are more burned-out (but more engaged) than men
2. AI is keeping tech workers up at night
Don't miss the full report: https://lnkd.in/g8RZeFja
We reviewed 800+ health startups in India this year. Met 200+ founders in person. These are entrepreneurs building across health tech, fitness, nutrition, software for doctors, diagnostics, healthy food, longevity, sports, elder care, women health, lifestyle management & more.
This is a long post on everything we've seen and observed in 2024 at Rainmatter by Zerodha. If you're an entrepreneur, investor of health enthusiast, this is for you.
1) There is a telemedicine fatigue- The post-pandemic boom in telemedicine has plateaued. While accessibility improved, sustainable consumer engagement still remains a challenge due to weak doctor-patient relationship and lack of differentiation. Patients want emotional and personalised engagement. Most companies are overusing AI in the disguise of scale. Opportunity is to solve for depth (chronic disease management) rather than breadth (generic consultation marketplaces).
2) Overload of premium fitness and wellness Apps- Apps targeting high-income urban users are oversaturated. Most startups overestimate the willingness of users to pay for digital fitness content. Opportunity is to focus on communities, hybrid models (offline + online), or affordable mass-market solutions. India is still not ready for Peloton content. We breathe YouTube.
3) Selling SaaS tools to Doctors- Doctors in India are notoriously price-sensitive. Most SaaS products fail due to limited willingness to adopt technology and low ROI visibility. Maybe companies should emphasise on simplicity and immediate value delivery. Job of a Doctor is to deliver treatment to patients and not learn how to use software. Need to humanise software in primary and secondary health care
4) Longevity buzz- Longevity startups sound exciting but cater to a niche. Everyone loves the idea of a pill or device that adds 50 years to life. But longevity is 80% lifestyle and 20% intervention. Startups chasing the 20% often overpromise and underdeliver. Without a strong clinical base or mass appeal, they will remain limited to aspirational urban elites. Opportunity is in integrating into broader wellness solutions rather than standalone ventures
5) Healthy food & nutrition- Overcrowding of “healthy snacks” and “superfoods” where differentiation is low and margins are squeezed by Quick commerce and logistics. Maybe companies should move beyond buzzwords like “organic” or “keto” and solve for authentic, local, and culturally aligned nutrition. India is a country of a million palates
6) Chronic disease management- Diabetes, hypertension, Weight loss and mental health requires long-term engagement and behaviour modification. While the space is competitive, there is room for solutions that prioritise patient journeys and retention over time. Driving outcome has to be the focus. Everything else is a vanity feature that doesn’t earn trust. Paid marketing will get expensive customers who won’t stick around
Sharing the remaining notes in the comments section. Read below