Climate research and planetary risks

🌍 How can humanity continue to develop without destroying the foundations of life on Earth? A major new study, co-authored by the PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, charts a scientific path forward — and warns of the cost of inaction. Business-as-usual leads to ongoing deterioration in climate, biodiversity, freshwater, and nutrient cycles. But when ambitious climate policy is paired with systemic sustainability measures — like shifting to a low-meat diet, halving food waste, reforesting land, and managing water and nutrients efficiently — the damage can be halted, even reversed. By 2050, the planet can return to 2015-level conditions. By 2100, Earth systems could begin to recover significantly. 🧭 This study combines the planetary boundaries framework with integrated climate models to create a navigation system for decision-makers. At the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), we emphasize the power of climate services — turning science into actionable policy — to help countries and companies manage these risks, anticipate disruptions, and build long-term resilience. We need coordinated global action, driven by data and grounded in science. Because protecting our future means safeguarding the systems that sustain life. The tools are here. The science is clear. The time is now. https://lnkd.in/eVuR9yDu

Important new paper – Climate extremes, food price spikes, and their wider societal risks Maximilian Kotz Markus Donat Tom Lancaster Miles Parker Pete Smith Anna Taylor Sylvia Vetter “2024 was the hottest year on record, with global temperatures exceeding 1.5 ◦C above preindustrial #climate conditions for the first time and records broken across large parts of Earth’s surface. Among the widespread impacts of exceptional #heat, rising #food prices are beginning to play a prominent role in public perception, now the second most frequently cited impact of #climatechange experienced globally, following only extreme heat itself. Recent econometric analysis confirms that abnormally high temperatures directly cause higher food prices,as impacts on agricultural production translate into supply shortages and food price #inflation. These analyses track changes in overall price aggregates which are typically slow-moving, but specific food goods can also experience much stronger short-term price spikes in response to #extremeheat. In this perspective, we document numerous examples from recent years in which food prices of specific goods spiked in response to #heat, #drought and heavy precipitation extremes. By evaluating the extremity of the associated climate conditions, we thereby build a global and climatological context for this phenomenon. We further review the knock-on societal #risks which these effects may bring with the ongoing intensification of extremes under climate change. These range from increasing economic #inequality and the burden on #health systems, as well as destabilising monetary and political systems. We discuss challenges and priorities for research and #policy to address these risks.” Maximilian Kotz et al 2025 Environ. Res. Lett. 20 081001. DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ade45f Read more here: https://lnkd.in/eC4-B7pz

Every fraction of a degree materially changes climate risk 🌎 Climate impacts do not increase proportionally with temperature. As warming advances, risks escalate faster and become more difficult to manage. Comparisons across 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C show how higher levels of warming amplify pressure across ecosystems, food systems, public health, and infrastructure. 👉 Biodiversity The share of species at high extinction risk increases from 14% at 1.5°C to 29% at 3°C, a 2.1× increase driven by ecosystem destabilization. 👉 Water stress and drought Population exposed to combined heat and water stress rises from 0.95 billion to 1.29 billion people, intensifying regional vulnerability. 👉 Food systems Annual adaptation and residual damage costs increase from $63B to $128B, with direct effects on food prices, supply reliability, and fiscal pressure. 👉 Wildfires In Mediterranean Europe, burned area increases by up to 187% at 3°C, roughly three times higher than at 1.5°C. 👉 Extreme heat Days above 35°C become more frequent. In Southern Africa, heatwaves rise from 2–4× to 8–12×, affecting health outcomes and labor productivity. 👉 Sea level rise By 2100, global mean sea level rise reaches up to 0.76 m, increasing long-term exposure for coastal assets and communities. 👉 Coral reefs Losses reach 70–90% at 1.5°C and around 99% at 2°C, indicating near-complete ecosystem collapse. Source: World Resources Institute, based on IPCC AR6.

While current conversations about global heating tend to center around a few well-established pieces of science, we don’t often hear about the scientists and leaders working at the frontier of what is still unknown about Earth’s systems. This includes unpredictable tipping points and cascading effects of our rapidly changing climate, as well as the unconventional adaptation strategies that might help us maintain a stable planet. What is the newest climate science being researched right now, and what areas are we still needing to explore as we fight for a livable future? In this episode, I'm joined by climate philanthropist Kelly Erhart to discuss the urgent state of climate science and emerging response strategies beyond traditional mitigation and adaptation. Kelly explains the climate research that reveals increasingly alarming risks, including natural feedback loops such as glacier collapse, declining albedo (the reflectivity of Earth), and methane release from melting permafrost. We also discuss frontier emergency climate interventions such as oceanic carbon sequestration, atmospheric methane removal, and glacier stabilization strategies, among others – while emphasizing that none of these replace the need for the drastic reduction of emissions. What are the biggest climate questions that are currently being researched? How can an interdisciplinary approach help us better understand the climate mitigation and adaptation options available to us? And finally, how do we, especially the youngest among us, maintain hope and motivation to continue working towards better outcomes for humanity and the planet? https://lnkd.in/gqXg9-yC

Climate models have long struggled with coarse resolution, limiting precise climate risk insights. But AI-driven methods are now changing this, unlocking more detailed intelligence than traditional physics-based approaches. I recently spoke with a research scientist at Google Research who highlighted a promising new hybrid approach. This method combines physics-based General Circulation Models (GCMs) with AI refinement, significantly improving resolution. The process starts with Regional Climate Models (RCMs) anchoring physical consistency at ~45 km resolution. Then, it uses a diffusion model, R2-D2, to enhance output resolution to 9 km, making estimates more suitable for projecting extreme climate events. 🔥 About R2-D2 R2‑D2 (Regional Residual Diffusion-based Downscaling) is a diffusion model trained on residuals between RCM outputs and high-resolution targets. Conditioned on physical inputs like coarse climate fields and terrain, it rapidly generates high-res climate maps (~800 fields/hour on GPUs), complete with uncertainty estimates. ✅ Why this matters - Offers detailed projections of extreme climate events for precise risk quantification. - Delivers probabilistic forecasts, improving risk modeling and scenario planning. - Provides another high-resolution modeling approach, enriching ensemble strategies for climate risk projections. 👉 Read the full paper: https://lnkd.in/gU6qmZTR 👉 An excellent explainer blog: https://lnkd.in/gAEJFEV2 If your work involves climate risk assessment, adaptation planning, or quantitative modeling, how are you leveraging high-resolution risk projections?

Superb report published today from Green Futures Solutions (University of Exeter) on the inadequacy of current corporate and financial risk models in accommodating climate risks. At its most fundamental, I see the failure of these risk models as the core assumption that our systems of the future - whilst dynamic - will retain the same basic structures, functions and features as they do today. The assumption that our social, economic, and environmental reality will march onward into a flat, linear, tabula rasa which extends infinitely into the future. Tipping points science shows us that this isn't true. With increased temperatures and continued ecosystem degradation, tipping points will be reached, and system collapses will follow. And with system collapses come cascade failures, and often unforeseeable (and catastrophic) consequences. These consequences and radical uncertainties have to be - as far as they can be - factored into a new generation of risk governance approaches, fit for the future that lies before us. In the Ecologi | B Corp™ team, we're spending a lot of time thinking about risk management strategies as a core component of - and motivator for - corporate climate action. On our project assessments, we use sensitive risk models which take into account extreme climate scenarios and the significant uncertainty that comes with them - so that we can bake-in precaution, prevention and resilience from the start. Risk assessment and management has become a huge part of the work we do, both internally and for our clients. It's not lip service to say that climate risk management is business critical. Climate change impacts are arguably the most foundational, most all-encompassing of all risk factors affecting businesses today. And many current risk approaches in use by businesses and investors just aren't up to the task. Read the report 👉 https://lnkd.in/evipkQNX Good write-up in The Guardian 👉 https://lnkd.in/eXPeYjt5 📸 : John Towner via Unsplash

There are always two Davos.   There’s the headline Davos—the one you see online, where attention gravitates to geopolitics, AI, conflict, and macro shocks. And then there’s the working Davos: smaller rooms, closed sessions, and side conversations where executives are actually pressure-testing assumptions about risk, capital, and the next decade. Climate shows up very differently in each. If you’re watching from the outside, climate can look like it’s “off the table" compared to the peak-hype years of net-zero pledges and splashy announcements. But that’s mostly a false comparison. People are measuring today against the peak of the hype cycle, not against reality. Inside the working rooms, climate hasn’t disappeared. It’s been absorbed. One of the clearest signals is the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2026, released annually ahead of #WEF26 and based on insights from leaders and experts across business, government, academia, and civil society. The signal is consistent—and nuanced: 1️⃣ In the short term (next ~2 years): Geopolitical and economic risks dominate immediate attention. But climate hasn’t dropped out. Extreme weather still ranks fourth, ahead of many financial and technological risks. 2️⃣ In the long term (next ~10 years): Environmental risks again dominate the severity rankings. Extreme weather is the top global risk for the third consecutive year, alongside biodiversity loss and Earth-system change. For CSOs, this matters because it explains the disconnect. Climate no longer shows up as a standalone agenda item or a headline theme. Instead, it’s embedded inside conversations about: 🔹Insurance availability and pricing 🔹Capital durability and asset risk 🔹Supply-chain exposure 🔹Product- and market-level regulation   That doesn’t mean climate is losing relevance. It means it’s moving from visibility to inevitability. ➡️ Short-term risks are noisy and reactive. ➡️ Long-term environmental risk is stable, compounding, and persistent.   If you’re comparing today to the peak of the hype cycle, it can feel like a retreat. If you’re looking at where CEOs are actually planning for the next decade, it’s anything but.   That’s the difference between the two Davos. Stephen Dunbar-Johnson (The New York Times), Dominik Asam (SAP), Maud Thuaudet (Saint-Gobain) | Photos: NYT, WEF

The World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2025, launched today, offers critical insights into the most consequential risks facing the world over the next two years and beyond. #wef25 In the short term, challenges such as misinformation, extreme weather events, societal polarization, and cyber threats dominate the risk landscape. These issues are reshaping economies, governance, and communities worldwide, demanding immediate, coordinated action. Over the next decade, #environmental risks are projected to intensify, with extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and disruptions to Earth's systems emerging as the most severe challenges. These risks underline the urgent need for long-term strategies to safeguard ecosystems, secure resources, and mitigate climate-related impacts. Addressing these challenges requires a global commitment to sustainability and innovative approaches. This report serves as a vital resource for understanding the interconnected nature of global risks and the need for collaboration to build resilience in a rapidly changing world. It also provides timely context as we prepare for discussions at #Davos, where global leaders will convene to address these pressing challenges. Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/e7cReNiH #risks25

Earth’s resilience is diminishing. Yesterday, the Planetary Boundaries Science initiative unveiled the Planetary Health Check, revealing that Earth is drifting further from the boundaries that define its safe operating space for humanity. According to the report, six of nine planetary boundaries—thresholds that help maintain Earth's stability—have already been crossed. Climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution, and the disruption of biogeochemical cycles are among the areas where transgressions are worsening, while ocean acidification is on the verge of crossing its own threshold. The diagnosis? A planet under increasing strain, with mounting risks to the vital systems that support life. “We’re not seeing improvement,” said Levke Caesar, co-lead of the report, pointing to the escalating risk of irreversible tipping points. The consequences of breaching these boundaries are already evident—more frequent extreme weather events, declining crop yields, and accelerating biodiversity loss. These developments paint a grim picture of a world entering a “dangerous new era” of environmental instability. The report, however, does more than merely document the planet's ailments. It advocates for an integrated approach, recognizing the interconnectedness of Earth’s systems. Ocean acidification, driven by rising CO2 levels, is a prime example. As this process intensifies, marine ecosystems face dire consequences, threatening the global fisheries that millions depend on. Yet the report also points to potential solutions that could address multiple boundaries at once. Reforming global food systems, for example, could not only help protect biodiversity but also mitigate climate change and alleviate freshwater stress. This health check will be updated regularly, providing policymakers and business leaders with an evolving diagnostic tool. But as the data make clear, without significant course correction, we are edging ever closer to environmental thresholds that could fundamentally alter life as we know it. The Planetary Boundaries Science initiative is led by Johan Rockström and the PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. 📰 Reporting by Sean Mowbray Planetary Health Check: https://lnkd.in/gu5iZfuZ

Understanding "systemic risk" is essential. But we need to be clear about which systemic risks we mean—and what it will take to address them. In a recent blog, my co-authors and I distinguish among climate-related planetary risks, real economy risks, and financial risks (each of which has systemic characteristics). That distinction is not academic—it is foundational to effective strategy. A new report by UKSIF, Scottish Widows and Canbury on systemic risk and portfolio resilience is better than most: it avoids the common mistake of assuming that once asset managers and asset owners understand systemic risks, they’ll naturally take actions that mitigate climate change. That’s not how capital markets work—and it’s not how economic/energy/sectoral systems change happens either. For instance: building resilience to systemic financial risks into portfolios may (appropriately) emphasize corporate-level investments in resilience and adaptation—investments that are critically important for individual firms facing physical climate risks and often far more strategic for those firms that cannot, on their own, shift global emissions trajectories. But these actions—however rational and necessary—will not mitigate planetary risk. They may protect corporate assets (which is important - both financially and for corporate stakeholders) and reduce a portfolio's exposure, but they do not reduce the underlying climate threat itself. That’s because systemic planetary risks—like climate tipping points, biodiversity collapse, and global water stress—operate on different time scales, affect different populations, and require different levers than systemic financial risks. And those levers sit primarily with governments, regulators, and international institutions—not with individual asset managers or company boards. This is not to discount the importance of financial institutions understanding systemic financial risks. They should—and must—do so to fulfill fiduciary duties and safeguard long-term value. But we should not conflate that task with the much larger, more urgent and oft-neglected one: mobilizing bold public policy, institutional reform, and large-scale public and private capital flows to mitigate planetary risk. Understanding this distinction is critical. For each goal (energy sector transformation, systemic resilience, etc.), It's critical to consider what systems change is required, what the necessary policies or investments are, what the barriers are, and which actors can drive solutions. Clarity here is the only way to align actions with the scale of the crisis. 👉 here's the full (short) blog on the importance of distinguishing among planetary, economic and financial risks: https://lnkd.in/ej6kpcDD Denise Hearn Matt Goldklang Perrine Toledano Darius Nassiry Cam Brewer Diana Best Linda-Eling Lee Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment