Evaluating international climate resilience efforts

Physical climate risk data: the more we learn, the less we know? Khalid Azizuddin's recent piece in *Responsible Investor captures well what many practitioners are grappling with today: - asset-level data that remain incomplete or hard to interpret; - physical hazard exposure often disconnected from financial materiality; - little visibility on supply chains or customers; - adaptation and resilience efforts largely ignored; - and a risk of over-simplifying complex realities into a single “score.” Some three years ago, EDHEC Business School set out to address exactly these challenges, working to advance climate risk modelling and make decision-useful for investors, companies, and public authorities. In this work, we have developed: 🔹 a blueprint for a new generation of probabilistic climate scenarios; 🔹 high-resolution geospatial modeling capabilities to allow for geographic and sectoral downscaling, consistent with each scenario; 🔹 an open database of decarbonisation and resilience technologies through the #ClimaTech project, which officially launched this week. While the research is public, the new EDHEC Climate Institute has also been assisting a school-backed venture, Scientific Climate Ratings (SCR), which integrates this research to deliver forward-looking quantification of the #financialmateriality of climate risks for infrastructure companies and investors worldwide. While SCR provides a rating scale for comparability, it avoids the trap of over-simplification. Each rating is backed by probabilistic scenario modelling, analysis of physical and transition risk exposures, and explicit accounting for adaptation measures. The result is a synthesis that remains transparent, interpretable, and anchored in scientific rigour. Together, these initiatives aim to move the discussion from data abundance to decision relevance, equipping practitioners with tools that connect climate science, finance, and strategy.

Scientists from PIK have delivered a groundbreaking evaluation of climate policy measures covering the last two decades. The study unveils the first comprehensive global evaluation of 1,500 climate policy measures from 41 countries across six continents, providing a detailed impact analysis of the wide range of climate policy measures implemented. The findings reveal a sobering reality: many policy measures have failed to achieve the necessary scale of emission reductions, with only 63 instances of successful climate policies, leading to average emission reductions of 19%, identified. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the key characteristic of these successful cases appears to be the inclusion of tax and price incentives in well-designed policy mixes. An accompanying interactive website, the “Climate Policy Explorer,” offers a comprehensive overview of the results, analysis and methods, and is available here: https://lnkd.in/efTeQBPb. Paper here: https://lnkd.in/eJu5vMuy

🌍 Disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation strategies are increasingly urgent. To meet this challenge, the 𝐂𝐑𝐌-𝐍𝐛𝐒 Toolkit has been developed to help countries embed nature-based solutions. It brings together environmental knowledge, policy alignment, practical interventions, inclusive governance, and integrated planning. Through this approach, it provides a clear pathway for building resilience while safeguarding ecosystems and human well-being. 𝘌𝘢𝘤𝘩 𝘵𝘰𝘰𝘭 𝘪𝘴 𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘰𝘸. 𝐓𝐨𝐨𝐥 1: 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 - Countries collect and compile data on environment, climate, hazards, and vulnerabilities to build a risk profile. - Using IPCC’s risk approach and Indigenous knowledge, the stocktake highlights where NbS can deliver the strongest impact. 𝐓𝐨𝐨𝐥 2: 𝐍𝐛𝐒 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠: - National plans and strategies are screened for NbS references through targeted keyword checks. - This process identifies entry points, exposes policy gaps, and ensures new NbS reinforce existing frameworks. 𝐓𝐨𝐨𝐥 3: 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐍𝐛𝐒 𝐒𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 - The toolkit provides categories and options for selecting NbS tailored to hazards and ecosystems. - Selected measures balance risk reduction with co-benefits such as biodiversity, resilience, and livelihoods. 𝐓𝐨𝐨𝐥 4: 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐄𝐧𝐠𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐆𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 - Countries are supported to mobilize stakeholders across institutions, sectors, and governance levels. - It promotes transparent participation that empowers communities and ensures NbS are inclusive and fair. 𝐓𝐨𝐨𝐥 5: 𝐍𝐛𝐒 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 - Countries are guided to embed NbS within DRR strategies, adaptation plans, and cross-sector policies. - Global examples and templates illustrate how integration turns scattered efforts into coherent strategies. 𝐒𝐮𝐦𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐂𝐡𝐞𝐜𝐤𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐭 - A checklist aligns the five tools in sequence to help countries track their progress. - It ensures a logical, stepwise approach that moves from risk profiling to policy integration. In essence, the CRM-NbS Toolkit is a structured pathway to mainstream nature-based solutions in #disaster and #climaterisk management. By moving from stocktake to integrated planning, countries can build resilience, safeguard ecosystems, and protect people’s well-being against climate change.

Slightly late but here: Excited that this paper that examines the impact and cost-effectiveness of 40 commonly used interventions in #foodsecurity #nutrition and #climate #resilience is finally out. We did this paper jointly with the @Innovation Commission for Climate Change and I led the team from International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), while also being an advisor overall. The nice thing about the paper is that for the first time (I think) there's an analyses of available causal evidence to understand and measure impact as well as cost-effectiveness in the food, climate resilience space. We reviewed more than 600 papers to understand and measure these. The analysis includes studies with experimental designs–such as randomized control trials–or high-quality quasi-experimental designs, as well as meta-analyses. To be included, studies had to measure primary outcomes associated with food security (yield, profit, income, consumption, etc.), nutrition (BMI, prevalence of anemia, etc.), and climate (reforestation, resilience to shock, etc.). We also distinguished between 'Great Evidence', Good evidence and make operational recommendations that can be used by funders to design high impact programmes. Here's the paper https://lnkd.in/eE2_3iVD and this is the ''money slide'' where the axes refer to the consistency and quantity of evidence. Cash and in-kind transfers and graduation programmes are great bets.... University of Chicago, Tilman Brück, Kyle Murphy, Jess Rudder, Maximo Torero, Karen Macours, Paul Winters, Joshua W. Deutschmann Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), Tisorn Songsermsawas, Lenyara Fundukova and many others.

By 2050, climate change could cost companies $1.2 trillion a year 🌍 Resilience is becoming a central pillar of economic strategy. A new interim report prepared for COP30 presents a clear case. Investing in resilience protects value, strengthens financial performance, and supports economic stability. While some figures are still under refinement, the available evidence already points to a decisive direction. At the national level, climate and nature shocks are affecting productivity, credit ratings, and fiscal space. Heat stress is projected to reduce global labor productivity by 2 to 3 percent by 2030. That translates into 80 million jobs lost and 2.4 trillion dollars in GDP impact. Countries that improve their resilience can reduce borrowing costs. A 10-point increase in a country's adaptation score is linked to a 37.5 basis point drop in sovereign bond spreads. This reduces financial pressure and improves debt sustainability. For companies, the risks are increasing. Physical climate risks could lead to 1.2 trillion dollars in annual costs for the world’s largest firms by the 2050s. This includes asset losses, disrupted operations, and declining earnings. Business leaders are responding. McCain Foods increased crop yields by 25 percent in New Zealand through regenerative agriculture. AstraZeneca avoided 2.5 billion dollars in potential output losses at a facility in Sweden by investing 4 million in adaptation measures. These results are not isolated. In the United States, homes built with wind-resistant standards had 50 percent fewer mortgage delinquencies after hurricanes. Resilience is directly protecting financial performance. Despite the clear economic case, investment in resilience remains low. Current flows into resilience finance are estimated at 54 billion dollars per year. The actual need is closer to 280 billion dollars annually. This gap limits preparedness and increases exposure. Delayed action is driving up costs across infrastructure, insurance, and public spending. The private sector is also exposed through disrupted value chains and rising capital losses. The report frames resilience as a financial strategy. It focuses on how to reduce volatility, protect physical and natural assets, and increase credit performance across both public and private sectors. While this version is interim, the structure is strong. It provides clear insights into how resilience can support growth, stability, and competitiveness across economies and industries. For decision makers in finance, policy, or business, this is essential reading. It outlines where the risks are rising, where capital should be directed, and how resilience investments generate measurable returns. This is a moment to move from reaction to preparation. The opportunity is clear. The question is how to scale it. #sustainability #sustainable #business #esg #climatechange

What if recovery could begin immediately after disaster strikes? For the children of Madagascar, cyclones are not mere weather events; they are frequent disruptors of life, shaping an uncertain future with over 50 tropical storms hitting since 2000. Pictured below is the destruction of the Manambery bridge following Tropical Cyclone Gamane in March 2024. Through the innovative Today & Tomorrow initiative, UNICEF in partnership with the Government of Madagascar and local civil society, is pioneering ways to safeguard our children from these devastating storms. The Today funding is directed toward immediate, child-centered actions like strengthening schools and shelters to withstand cyclones and training children in safety protocols. These efforts not only aim to reduce cyclone risks now but also build long-term resilience in communities. By focusing on prevention and preparedness, the initiative seeks to deliver a higher return on investment compared to the cost of responding to disasters after they occur. Tomorrow's strategy utilizes parametric insurance, which provides rapid funding within 72 hours of a cyclone, allowing for swift, effective responses that are crucial in preventing further crises such as disease outbreaks or malnutrition. Together, we're not just responding to natural disasters—we're proactively building a more resilient future where Madagascar’s children can thrive, no matter the climate challenges they face. Read the report here: https://lnkd.in/gWMFF3_6 #ClimateAction #ClimateResilience #DisasterResponse UNICEF Climate, Climate, Environment, Energy & Disaster Team including Jen Stephens, Dr. Tamara Plush, Sophie Lee UN Environment Programme

#ClimateAdaptation is moving from side project to balance-sheet priority. McKinsey estimates climate-resilience technologies could represent $600B–$1T in addressable markets by 2030, across building hardening, grid resilience, water systems, wildfire and flood mitigation, supply-chain protection, and risk transfer. We’re already seeing the demand signal that feeds those markets:  premium hikes and FAIR-plan growth push owners toward risk transfer and upgrades; outage spikes drive backup power and grid/storage spend; and code-plus retrofits (impact-rated roofs, debris-resistant openings, WUI) funnel capital into building hardening—the very categories McKinsey sizes. Climate isn’t one more risk... it’s a risk multiplier. First Street’s 11th National Risk Assessment: Portfolio Pressures documents how “idiosyncratic” events are giving way to same-year, multi-hazard hits across regions, lifting portfolio tail losses. To reflect that reality, we incorporate cross-peril and cross-property correlations when producing portfolio loss curves—showing that ≤1% AEP outcomes can be materially higher than single-peril views, which is exactly where capital planning is most exposed. How exposure becomes financial stress. After a hazard, the credit channel runs through a few tight mechanisms: non-renewals and lender-placed insurance raise escrow and DTI; deductibles and sublimits shift more loss to borrowers; unrepaired damage and appraisal haircuts erode equity and push LTV higher; and refi frictions (overlays, comp scarcity, proof of coverage) slow prepayments. These effects are most acute for LMI households with thin buffers, accelerating roll rates and raising LGD. Because they cluster geographically, localized shocks become correlated loss periods at the portfolio level. Why this points to adaptation and resilience. If climate amplifies losses, targeted resilience is a return-on-avoided-loss strategy: flood management that reduces depth and downtime; wildfire mitigation that lowers damage severity and insurance frictions; water and grid upgrades that cut business interruption; building hardening that preserves collateral value and speeds appraisals. The financial translation is straightforward—lower expected loss and tighter tails, better cash-flow durability, improved cure rates, and more stable LTV/DSCR. Connecting market opportunity to portfolio need. The adaptation categories McKinsey highlights line up with where portfolios experience the largest stress multipliers. The job now is to direct capital to site-specific measures with measurable payoff—prioritizing assets and geographies where resilience most improves cash flows, collateral values, and loss distributions while reducing the chance that local shocks scale into portfolio-level credit stress. The aim is simple: quantify climate-to-credit pathways, target interventions with measurable payoff, and finance resilience at scale, so portfolios get stronger while communities face fewer disruptions.

For countries supported by The World Bank's International Development Association (IDA), which supports the world’s poorest countries, the path to progress is often a tightrope walk, balancing ambitious development goals against the ever-present threat of disasters. When we finance a country to build a road that connects markets with the manufacturer it should be of a quality that can withstand floods. And when we finance a country to build schools they ought to be built so heat or cold or the next cyclone do not impact learning. When development solutions require coordination across multiple sectors and agencies, as is almost always the case for integrating disaster risk management with development objectives, many low income countries need technical assistance to help them enable this to happen. Trust fund partnerships like Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) enables this essential support. Without them, many countries would finance less resilient development and be unable to finance risk reduction objectives. Our mission at the World Bank is to create a world free of poverty on a livable planet. This means prioritizing investments that create jobs and drive economic growth even as the climate continues to change. Development needs stability. Our latest publication showcases practical examples of how countries, with financing from the IDA and technical assistance funded by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), are turning this vision into reality one project at a time through:  ✅ Strategic infrastructure investments that not only connecting communities and boosting economies but are also designed to withstand future shocks, protecting livelihoods and ensuring business continuity  ✅ Innovative financing mechanisms that are enabling countries to respond rapidly and effectively to disasters, minimizing economic disruption and safeguarding essential services  ✅ Approaches to create jobs and safeguard livelihoods that are putting local knowledge and participation at the heart of resilience-building.   When done well, integrating disaster and climate risk management into development unlocks new opportunities for growth and prosperity for all.  Learn more: http://wrld.bg/5i1E50XcuSo   Akihiko Nishio Sebastian Molineus Maitreyi Bordia Das Ming Zhang

What does resilience look like when drought becomes the norm? In Madagascar, where five severe droughts have hit in just two decades, smallholder farmers are navigating climate extremes with little margin for error, and even less access to support. But a new $150 million program aims to change that. Backed by the International Fund for Agricultural Development and the Green Climate Fund, this effort is scaling what has already worked: climate-resilient practices, better seed stock, smarter water management, and access to market systems that truly include rural producers. It’s not just about crops - it’s about dignity, planning, and possibility. Farmers are getting real-time weather data. They’re using organic fertiliser, growing their own seed banks, and connecting with buyers beyond their village borders. They're turning livestock and manure into circular systems of survival. And the impact? Up to 75% of participating farmers have already lifted themselves out of poverty. Of course, challenges remain: poor roads, broken infrastructure, and persistent communication gaps. But when support is designed to be practical, inclusive, and grounded in the realities of rural life, change is not only possible - it's inevitable. In a world of climate volatility, Madagascar is reminding us that adaptation isn't passive. It's courageous, deliberate, and deeply local. #ClimateResilience #SmallholderFarming #Madagascar Source - https://lnkd.in/g2NzP2Qj

Climate change is the defining challenge of our time. Its impacts are felt in every corner of the globe, but the world's most vulnerable are bearing the brunt. Pakistan is a stark example. The devastating floods of 2022 affected 33 million people and caused an estimated $30 billion in damages and economic losses. Extreme weather events will only become more frequent and severe as the climate crisis escalates. Given this reality, #EWS are critical for protecting lives and livelihoods. They enable communities to anticipate hazards, take action to minimize their impact, and build resilience. Yet, despite their proven effectiveness, one in three people globally still need to be covered by early warning systems. In Pakistan, coverage is even lower, especially in remote and mountainous areas like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Green Climate Fund B.39 supported Pakistan in strengthening climate information and early warning systems for anticipatory actions and risk-based decision-making. This project focused on the highly vulnerable districts of Buner and Shangla in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where flash floods and landslides regularly hit communities. By improving the capacity to forecast these hazards, disseminate warnings, and take anticipatory action, the project will build the resilience of over 1.7 million people. Notably, the project takes a people-centered approach. This holistic approach - linking early warnings to early action and long-term resilience - is needed as we confront the climate crisis. It reflects the transformative vision of the UN's Early Warnings for All initiative (#EW4ALL). As we rally behind this call, let us scale up investments in these life-saving systems, focusing on the most vulnerable communities like those in Pakistan. And let us do so with the urgency that the climate crisis demands. More about the funding here https://lnkd.in/gAidfimD