Future implications of climate experiments

This could be one of the most important papers to be published since James Hansen’s Pipeline paper a year ago. Climate change will continue to get worse for centuries after net-zero is achieved. It had been assumed that net-zero would halt further temperature rise and with it climate impacts, since the relationship between CO2 loading and temperature was thought to be near-linear. The models used to support the IPCC 1.5 special report were based on transient climate states, assumed scenarios and time sampling. They looked at global averages rather than regional effects and stop at 2100. Critically they tended also not to include triggered tipping points. The new paper from Andrew King et al from University of Melbourne but with co-authors from Reading, Seoul and 4 other Australian centres, ran coupled climate models for 1000 years into the future with different net-zero achievement points from 2030 to 2060. SSP5-8.5 was used up to the net-zero point to simplify the experiment but also to clearly illustrate the criticality of reaching net-zero as soon as possible, with as low a starting temperature as possible. In all cases mean surface temperature continued to rise after net-zero, but the later net-zero was achieved, the higher the temperature at the start, the faster the continued rise. All showed considerable slowdown of rise rate, but not uniformity or overall stability. Regional climate change continued, especially in the southern hemisphere with Australia continuing to rise by a further +1C if net-zero is delayed to 2060. The Southern Ocean temperature would also continue to rise significantly with continued reduction in Antarctic Sea Ice. This combination would likely lead to the continued melting of the West Antarctic Ice Shelf. Meanwhile the Arctic sea-ice would stabilise but likely see years of ice-free summer conditions. Rainfall patterns and ENSO change during stabilisation. Weather extremes are locked in, but the relative difference in levels greatly increases with net-zero delay. Even a 5 year delay still has influence 1,000 years into the future. The key takeaway for me is the graph below. Things may continue to get slowly worse even after net-zero, but the point at which it is achieved is critical. We can’t get back to the climate of my youth, but we can control how bad it gets for people born today. The faster we decarbonise, the least bad the future will be, for humanity and nature alike. Story: https://lnkd.in/ev5QK5bg Paper: https://lnkd.in/eaKkeHN7 #climatechange #netzero

New research brings important clarity to one of the most pressing hydrometeorological questions for Central Europe: How will short-duration rainfall extremes respond to continued warming? A recent open-access study by Peleg et al., 2025 provides a high-resolution, physically grounded analysis of how 10-minute and 1-hour convective rainfall extremes may evolve across Switzerland under different global warming levels. What makes this work particularly relevant is the application of the TENAX model, which directly links extreme rainfall intensity to temperature — enabling robust projections even when sub-daily data are not available from climate models. This approach captures the thermodynamic scaling of extreme precipitation with warming and combines it with projected changes in rainfall occurrence. 🛑 Key scientific insights 👉 Extreme short-duration rainfall intensifies strongly with warming. +3 °C global warming (~+3.3 °C in Switzerland) leads to: ➡️ ~40% increase in 10-min extremes ➡️ ~20% increase in 1-hour extremes These magnitudes align with Clausius–Clapeyron scaling and with CPM-based studies for the Alpine region. 👉 Alpine regions show the strongest response. Higher elevations warm faster and show steeper rainfall–temperature scaling, resulting in local intensification up to 20% higher than in lowlands. 👉 Event frequency shifts dramatically. What is today a 100-year 10-minute rainfall event could recur: ➡️ every ~16 years in high Alpine regions ➡️ every ~29 years on the Swiss Plateau 👉 Dynamics vs. thermodynamics: Even though climate models project a reduction in the number of rainy days, extreme events still intensify. This confirms that thermodynamic effects dominate over dynamic constraints in shaping future sub-daily precipitation extremes. 🛑 Implications for risk, infrastructure, and adaptation The findings underscore a growing risk landscape for Switzerland: ➡️ Urban areas (Zurich, Bern, Basel): Increased pluvial flooding potential as short, high-intensity events exceed drainage capacity. ➡️ Mountain regions: Higher likelihood of debris flows, landslides, and runoff-driven hazards amplified by glacier retreat and permafrost degradation. ➡️ Critical infrastructure: Transport networks, hydropower assets, and protective structures will require updated design standards that explicitly incorporate sub-hourly intensification patterns. Short-duration extremes — often responsible for flash floods and severe damage — are not sufficiently captured in many traditional climate assessments. This study fills a crucial gap by providing duration-specific, spatially detailed projections that are directly relevant for: hydrological modelling, risk assessments, engineering design (IDF curves, stormwater capacity), early-warning systems and climate adaptation. Source: https://lnkd.in/dc4CNZma

Insightful 💡 "Three to five billion people – or up to two-thirds of the world’s population – are set to be affected by projected rainfall changes by the end of the century unless the world rapidly ramps up emissions reduction efforts, according to new research(1) by myself and colleagues. To date, the effects of climate change on global rainfall has been uncertain. This has hampered our capacity to adapt to climate change and prepare for natural disasters. Our method overcomes this uncertainty. We identified the regions where multiple climate models make similar projections about future rainfall impacts, and so reveal the global hot spots for drier and wetter conditions in future. Our findings have deep implications for a large proportion of the world’s population – including millions of Australians." 1) https://lnkd.in/eu5N69qF 2) https://lnkd.in/e3Sfhggp #future #environment #health #climatechange #extremeweather #rainfall Learn more https://lnkd.in/eb3KuK4m

“Fifty years into the project of modeling Earth’s future climate, we still don’t really know what’s coming. Some places are warming with more ferocity than expected. Extreme events are taking scientists by surprise. Right now, as the bald reality of climate change bears down on human life, scientists are seeing more clearly the limits of our ability to predict the exact future we face. The coming decades may be far worse, and far weirder, than the best models anticipated… This is a problem. The world has warmed enough that city planners, public-health officials, insurance companies, farmers, and everyone else in the global economy want to know what’s coming next for their patch of the planet… Today’s climate models very accurately describe the broad strokes of Earth’s future. But warming has also now progressed enough that scientists are noticing unsettling mismatches between some of their predictions and real outcomes… Across places where a third of humanity lives, actual daily temperature records are outpacing model predictions… And a global jump in temperature that lasted from mid-2023 to this past June remains largely unexplained… Trees and land are major sinks for carbon emissions, and that this fact might change is not accounted for in climate models. But it is changing: Trees and land absorbed much less carbon than normal in 2023, according to research published last October… The interactions of the ice sheets with the oceans are also largely missing from models, Schmidt told me, despite the fact that melting ice could change ocean temperatures, which could have significant knock-on effects… The models may be underestimating future climate risks across several regions because of a yet-unclear limitation. And, Rohde said, underestimating risk is far more dangerous than overestimating it.” #ClimateRisk #TransitionRisk https://lnkd.in/eiSRvUeF

The latest State of the Cryosphere Report presents deeply concerning evidence of accelerating ice loss and its cascading impacts on global water resources and climate systems. Let me highlight several critical findings: We are witnessing unprecedented rates of cryosphere decline. Mountain glaciers globally set record losses in 2023-2024, with some regions like Sweden showing the highest melt in 80 years of observations. The Arctic is warming 3-4 times faster than the global average, while Antarctic sea ice reached historic lows for three consecutive years. These losses have severe implications for water security. Over 2 billion people depend on glacier-fed rivers for water, agriculture and hydropower. Many glacier-dependent regions have already passed "peak water" - the point where meltwater supply begins declining. The Hindu Kush Himalaya region saw record low snowfall this winter, threatening water supplies across South Asia. The global impacts extend far beyond mountain and polar regions. Sea level rise has doubled in the last 30 years. If current emissions continue, we risk triggering irreversible melt of parts of Antarctica and Greenland that could raise seas by multiple meters over centuries. Ocean circulation patterns are showing concerning changes, with potential disruption of critical systems like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. That means every fraction of a degree matters!! At 1.5°C warming, we can still preserve significant mountain glacier ice and limit sea level rise to more manageable levels. But current policies put us on track for over 2°C warming, which would lead to catastrophic and irreversible ice loss. We face a critical choice. Strong emissions reductions this decade could still prevent extreme loss and damage. But the window for action is closing rapidly. We must strengthen climate commitments in 2025 NDCs to credibly limit warming to 1.5°C through: - At least 40% emissions cuts by 2030 - Net zero emissions by 2050 - Increased support for adaptation in vulnerable regions The cryosphere cannot wait. We cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice. The decisions we make this decade will determine the future of Earth's ice and snow - and the billions who depend on them. Green Climate Fund, Asian Development Bank (ADB), #ClimateAction #ClimateEmergency, #GlobalWarming, #NetZero2050, #GlacierMelt #SeaLevelRise, #WaterSecurity, #PolarIce #ArcticAmplification

Over the past few days I’ve been reading the Stockholm Resilience Centre’s new report AI for a Planet Under Pressure.  It’s a very comprehensive examination of how AI can support sustainability research, climate science and planetary resilience. It’s an important contribution at exactly the moment when society needs clarity on both the opportunities and the risks of advanced digital technologies. A few reflections from me: AI is already accelerating scientific discovery The report shows that AI is helping researchers uncover patterns in climate, biodiversity, freshwater and urban systems that were previously too complex or computationally demanding to analyse. From high-resolution climate downscaling to modelling Earth system tipping points, AI is opening new windows into how the planet is changing and where intervention is most urgent.  This is not just for relevant for scientific discovery. Climate science is becoming more predictive, more integrated, and more accessible One of the strongest messages is that AI is enabling a shift from isolated models to integrated cross-system understanding. For example, foundation models trained on vast geophysical datasets can support multiple climate-related tasks, from cyclone tracking to air quality forecasts, with far lower computational costs. This has real implications for researchers and public agencies that previously lacked the resources to run such models. But the benefits will depend on how responsibly we apply these tools The report is refreshingly balanced. It highlights very real concerns: the environmental footprint of compute, bias in data and models, uneven global representation in AI research, and the risk of over-reliance on systems that may still contain blind spots. Crucially, it argues that AI must support, not substitute, scientific judgement and local knowledge. What I find most compelling is the call for an “AI for sustainability science” agenda. This means moving beyond pilots and experiments and investing in the infrastructures, skills and governance frameworks that allow AI to strengthen climate research while remaining aligned with planetary boundaries and social equity. In other words: more capability, yes but also more responsibility, transparency and inclusion. For those of us working at the intersection of digitalisation, sustainability and resilience, this report is a timely reminder: AI’s contribution to climate action won’t be measured by novelty, but by whether it helps societies anticipate risks, steward ecosystems, and make better collective decisions under pressure. Well worth a read! https://lnkd.in/eMheXkkx #AI #Sustainability #ClimateScience #DigitalTransformation #Resilience #Research #TechForGood

A new study, supported by the European Union’s Horizon research and innovation programme, shows that the climate impacts we often associate with the distant future — from water stress to crop failures and heat extremes — are already emerging across multiple sectors. By applying the concept of Time of Emergence (TOE), the study identifies when climate-related changes become statistically distinct from historical variability. The results are striking: In many regions, TOE occurred before 2020 for several key indicators. 👉Tropical areas face the greatest burden of early and compounding stressors, 👉including rising heat extremes and declining crop yields. 👉In contrast, northern latitudes may experience beneficial changes, such as increased agricultural productivity — highlighting a deepening inequality in climate impacts. These cumulative shifts, both positive and negative, are projected to peak before 2050. For anyone working in foresight, policy, resilience, or sustainability, this is a crucial reminder: The future is already underway — and its effects are not evenly distributed. #Foresight #StrategicPlanning #ClimateJustice #FutureStudies

*Edited to reflect new articles in comments* The Southern Ocean around Antarctica is undergoing an unexpected and alarming transformation: instead of becoming fresher from melting ice, it's rapidly getting saltier. Since 2015, sea ice has shrunk by an area the size of Greenland and hasn't returned, suggesting a major shift in the climate system. Saltier surface water draws heat from the deep ocean, making it harder for sea ice to regrow and triggering a feedback loop that accelerates warming, intensifies storms, threatens wildlife, and raises global sea levels. Scientists warn this may mark a climate tipping point. ⚠️ Implications for Business Risk 1. Global Supply Chain Disruption 🔍 Sea-level rise and extreme weather may worsen, particularly in Asia-Pacific and coastal hubs. 🔍 Antarctic changes may alter storm tracks, increasing shipping risks, insurance premiums, and port disruptions. 2. Carbon Price Volatility 🔍 If oceanic carbon sinks fail, carbon markets will tighten. Carbon-intensive companies may face higher offsets or penalties. 🔍 Climate policy could move faster and more severely than anticipated. 3. Asset Revaluation 🔍 Physical assets (real estate, infrastructure, agriculture) in vulnerable regions will face write-downs or stranded asset risks. 🔍 Water-intensive industries will suffer from changing freshwater availability and ocean acidification. 4. Investor and Regulatory Scrutiny 🔍 Climate transition and physical risks are increasingly priced into ESG frameworks, TCFD/ISSB reporting, and investor expectations. 🔍 This new data will likely accelerate regulatory demands for climate scenario planning and risk disclosure. 5. Reputation and Resilience 🔍 The narrative has shifted: climate impacts are no longer distant or abstract. Stakeholders are watching how companies respond to planetary tipping points. 🔍 Businesses seen as slow to adapt may face loss of social license or talent, especially from younger generations. 🧭 What Can Business Leaders Do Now? ➖ Reassess climate risks using worst-case scenarios. The models are evolving, so must your resilience planning. ➖ Review your exposure to supply chain bottlenecks, insurance liabilities, and vulnerable assets. ➖ Accelerate decarbonization, not just for compliance but for long-term viability. ➖ Engage in collective action, especially in sectors like finance, shipping, food, and mining that shape global climate dynamics. The UN Global Compact Network Australia is creating a climate reporting community of practice, the content and discussions will respond to the demands of the businesses participating in the community. Deep dives into climate risks and scenario planning have already been raised as areas to explore.

In this week's column, I look at NVIDIA's new generative foundation model that it says enables simulations of Earth’s global climate with an unprecedented level of resolution. As is so often the case with powerful new technology, however, the question is what else humans will do with it. The company expects that climate researchers will build on top of its new AI-powered model to make climate predictions that focus on five-kilometer areas. Previous leading-edge global climate models typically don’t drill below 25 to 100 kilometers. Researchers using the new model may be able to predict conditions decades into the future with a new level of precision, providing information that could help efforts to mitigate climate change or its effects. A 5-kilometer resolution may help capture vertical movements of air in the lower atmosphere that can lead to certain kinds of thunderstorms, for example, and that might be missed with other models. And to the extent that high-resolution near-term forecasts are more accurate, the accuracy of longer-term climate forecasts will improve in turn, because the accuracy of such predictions compounds over time. The model, branded by Nvidia as cBottle for “Climate in a Bottle,” compresses the scale of Earth observation data 3,000 times and transforms it into ultra-high-resolution, queryable and interactive climate simulations, according to Dion Harris, senior director of high-performance computing and AI factory solutions at Nvidia. It was trained on high-resolution physical climate simulations and estimates of observed atmospheric states over the past 50 years. It will take years, of course, to know just how accurate the model’s long-term predictions turn out to be. The The Alan Turing Institute of AI and the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, are actively exploring the new model, Nvidia said Tuesday at the ISC 2025 computing conference in Hamburg. Bjorn Stevens, director of the Planck Institute, said it “represents a transformative leap in our ability to understand, predict and adapt to the world around us.” The Earth-2 platform is in various states of deployment at weather agencies from NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration in the U.S. to G42, an Abu Dhabi-based holding company focused on AI, and the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction in Taiwan. Spire Global, a provider of data analytics in areas such as climate and global security, has used Earth-2 to help improve its weather forecasts by three orders of magnitude with regards to speed and cost over the last three or four years, according to Peter Platzer, co-founder and executive chairman.

Happy to share a recent working paper, "Impact of Climate Scenario Choices on Climate Financial Risk Assessment," with colleagues at the Oxford Sustainable Finance Group, UK Centre for Greening Finance and Investment (CGFI), and Theia Finance Labs. Key takeaways: 1.    Widespread heterogeneity in climate scenario providers and trajectories indicate large uncertainty for financial institutions in assessing corporate climate transition scenario pathways. 2.    This has significant implications for climate financial stress testing that are premised on climate scenario pathways to meet certain temperature targets and policy ambitions. 3.    A consistent, bottom–up, climate financial stress test is applied to 3,419 power companies using different scenario trajectories and provides two main impacts: net present value (NPV) and probability of default (PD). 4.    Five scenarios are compared under a goal of reaching a global average surface temperature increase of below 2°C, and four scenarios are compared under a goal of reaching global Net Zero by 2050. 5.    Distribution of NPV changes under the stress test show that there are significant differences based on the climate scenario. This can impact the assessment of market and credit risk for companies. 6.    Analysis of individual power technologies indicate that the heterogeneity in company performance is technology specific and likely driven by assumptions in Integrated Assessment Models. 7.    Renewable power companies show improvement in NPV under any stress scenario, but there is some disagreement on the extent to which coal, gas, and oil companies show reduction in NPV. 8.    Hydro and nuclear technology power companies show the greatest uncertainty in financial performance (i.e., NPV) depending on the climate scenario being used. 9.    Results of probability of default (PD) change show similarly conflicting results with high variation in a company’s PD, however we observe higher levels of agreement between scenarios compared to NPV change. 10. Further research is needed to address both the uncertainty and assumptions in climate scenario trajectories as they are applied to financial climate risk analysis. #climaterisk #transitionrisk #stresstests #scenarioanalysis #integratedassessmentmodel #powergeneration #netpresentvalue #probabilityofdefault https://lnkd.in/gV2swsNr