Peer reviewed climate emergency studies

𝐀𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐖𝐚𝐫𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐓𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤: 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐥-𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝 𝐄𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐏𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐇𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 Peer-reviewed research in One Earth assesses whether the Earth system is approaching self-reinforcing tipping dynamics. Observations now align with modeled risks. 1. Temperature & emissions reality 🔹12 consecutive months above 1.5°C in 2024 🔹Warming rate increased to ~0.31°C per decade 🔹CO₂ at ~422.5 ppm in 2024 (~50% above pre-industrial) 🔹Energy-related CO₂ emissions: 37.8 Gt in 2024 Declining aerosol masking may add up to ~0.5°C additional warming. Observed signals: record heatwaves, wildfire extremes, marine heatwaves, global coral bleaching. 2. Ice sheet instability 🔹 Greenland Ice Sheet vulnerable between 0.8–3.4°C 🔹 Risk may materialize below 2°C & before 2050 🔹 The West Antarctic Ice Sheet, including Thwaites (“Doomsday”) Glacier, structurally vulnerable to ocean warming; Thwaites alone holds enough ice to raise global sea level by ~65 cm, and broader WAIS destabilization could commit the planet to ~3 meters of long-term sea-level rise. Observed: accelerating Greenland mass loss, Arctic sea-ice decline, Antarctic ice shelf weakening, increasing the risk of irreversible ice loss, rising sea levels. Mechanism: ice loss → lower albedo (sunlight reflection)→ additional warming. 3. Biosphere stress 🔹 Amazon rainforest identified as tipping element 🔹 Low-latitude coral reefs likely already beyond ~1.2°C threshold Observed: repeated coral bleaching, Amazon drought, fire, reduced carbon sink capacity. Impact: carbon release amplifies warming. 4. Ocean circulation and cascades 🔹AMOC shows signs of weakening Cascade pathway: Warming → Arctic melt → freshwater input → AMOC weakening → rainfall shifts → Amazon dieback → carbon release → further warming. Tipping elements are interconnected, effects not regional. 5. Sensitivity and overshoot risk 🔹 Climate sensitivity likely 2.5–4°C per CO₂ doubling, possibly >4.5°C 🔹 Long-term Earth system sensitivity may approach ~8°C 🔹 Current policies point toward ~2.8°C by 2100 🔹 Temporary overshoot increases tipping cascade risk by up to 72% 🔹 By 2300, projected median global temperatures range from ~1.5°C (low pathway) to ~3.3°C (middle) and up to ~9.6°C (high) In Trump Speak: Levels not seen before, for over a million years. 6. Trajectory vs. state A hothouse trajectory means self-reinforcing warming even if emissions later decline. 7. Climate–biodiversity coupling Permafrost thaw, forest dieback, coral collapse and weakened carbon sinks interact. Climate & biodiversity are one system. Scientific implication Acceleration, ice instability, coral loss, Amazon stress & ocean circulation changes are consistent with tipping-cascade mechanisms. Uncertainty in thresholds does not reduce risk. It increases exposure. We are approaching irreversible system-level change.

UK winters are becoming significantly wetter due to warming driven by human burning of fossil fuels. Our new study published in #GeophysicalResearchLetters by a team at Newcastle University and WTW led by James Carruthers reveals that for every degree of global or regional warming, winter rainfall increases by a compounding 7%, increasing the #risk of flooding. And it is happening much faster than most global climate models predict - we’re already experiencing changes in UK winter rainfall that global climate models predict for the 2040s. The extra water that falls every winter across the UK from fossil-fuel induced warming fills 3 million Olympic sized swimming pools, predisposing the country to flooding as the ground is more generally saturated. Winter rainfall will continue to increase every year with additional #globalwarming. We can only stop these increases in #flooding by stopping the burning of #fossilfuels. Our results show that current severe flooding, with more than 100 flood warnings across the UK, will become more frequent. There is a widening gap between growing climate risks and action on adaptation, identified by the UK's Climate Change Committee. It is vitally important that we overhaul our planning and adaptation strategies, with increased investment being directed towards addressing the growing challenges from extreme weather. Without increased resource there will be substantial economic damage, and rising casualties from severe floods. https://lnkd.in/ewvVEYTN Selma Guerreiro Daniel Bannister National Emergency Briefing

Ripple et al. (2023). 'The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territory', BioScience is out now. In this comprehensive report, the authors showcase a wide range of drivers of climate change and climate-related responses. With more than 15,000 scientist signatories, this is declared a 'climate emergency'. The trends display all-time climate-related records and very concerning patterns of climate-related disasters. The authors also report 'minimal progress by humanity in combating climate change'. 'It is the moral duty of us scientists and our institutions to clearly alert humanity of any potential existential threat and to show leadership in taking action. This report is part of our series of concise and easily accessible yearly updates on the state of the climate crisis' assert the author team. Some deeply important warnings include: "Many models assume that GDP growth can be mostly decoupled from emissions and other consumption-related environmental impacts (a) and that carbon capture methods can be quickly scaled up (b). If these assumptions are not realistic and the use of coal and other fossil fuels is not immediately curtailed (c), then Earth system feedback loops (d) could lead to rapidly accelerating climate impacts, including undernourishment (e) and climate disasters, which will be especially severe in less wealthy countries that have had little historical emissions (f)." Open-access report can be seen here: https://lnkd.in/gjbEDVUJ William J Ripple,  Christopher Wolf,  Jillian W Gregg,  Johan Rockström, Thomas M Newsome,  Beverly E Law,  Luiz Marques,  Timothy M Lenton,  Chi Xu, Saleemul Huq,  Leon Simons,  Sir David Anthony King #climatechange #climatedisaster #climateemergency #science #justice