Evidence-based analysis for climate challenges

A 1°C rise in temperature is a poverty multiplier. New global evidence based on subnational data from 130 countries shows that each additional degree of warming: ✖️ Increases poverty by 0.63–1.18 percentage points ✖️ Raises inequality by 1.3–1.9% (Gini index) ✖️ Pushes 62–99 million more people into poverty by 2030 compared to a world without climate change The impacts are not evenly distributed. They are strongest in poorer countries, especially where agriculture dominates livelihoods, and are particularly acute across Sub-Saharan Africa. When we look only at national averages, much of the damage disappears. But subnational analysis reveals the real story: large, localized climate shocks interacting with poverty, inequality, and vulnerability. This matters for policy, finance, and development planning. If we underestimate climate risk by relying on national-level data, we: 1️⃣ Misprice climate risk 2️⃣ Misallocate adaptation finance 3️⃣ Miss the communities most exposed Climate change is no longer just about emissions trajectories. It is about distributional impacts, justice, and who pays the price first. This is why granular climate intelligence must sit at the heart of poverty reduction, adaptation, and development strategies. Because climate risk is not abstract. It is local, unequaland already reshaping development outcomes. read the article in Nature here 👇 https://lnkd.in/ehtBmjip

Indicators of Global #ClimateChange 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and #human #influence Abstract: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of #scientific #evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely #information on key #indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining #carbon budget, and estimates of global #temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced #warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023 This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here Please read the full article!

📢 𝗧𝘄𝗼-𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗿𝗱𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱’𝘀 𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗵𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝟭𝟬% Check out our new attribution study in Nature Climate Change led by Sarah Schöngart and co-authored by Zebedee Nicholls, Setu Pelz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, and myself. https://lnkd.in/d2Scxtgy 🔎 We link data on emissions #inequality over the period 1990–2020 to regional warming and resulting climate extremes using an emulator-based framework. We find that: ▪️ 𝗧𝘄𝗼-𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗿𝗱𝘀 (𝗼𝗻𝗲-𝗳𝗶𝗳𝘁𝗵) 𝗼𝗳 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝟭𝟬% (𝟭%) of the global population, meaning that their individual contributions are 6.5 (20) times the average per capita contribution to global warming. ▪️For extreme events, the 𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝟭𝟬% (𝟭%) 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝟳 (𝟮𝟲) 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝗹𝘆 𝟭-𝗶𝗻-𝟭𝟬𝟬-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗲𝘅𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 and 6 (17) times more to Amazon droughts. ▪️Our granular impact analysis shows that 𝗹𝗼𝘄-𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝘂𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗿𝘂𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗺 𝗰𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗲𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 concentrated among wealthier populations worldwide. While emissions inequality has long been recognized, our study is the first to 𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗳𝘆 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 for global temperature rise and extreme climate events. The findings have significant implications for climate justice, underscoring the stark disparities in responsibility for climate impacts. They provide a strong evidence base for 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗲𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀 targeting the world’s highest emitters. Nature Magazine, ETH Zürich, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

📢 Fit-for-55 Climate Scenario Analysis The European Supervisory Authorities (ESAs) and the European Central Bank (ECB) have released a groundbreaking report, "Fit-for-55 Climate Scenario Analysis," assessing the EU financial sector's resilience to climate change under various scenarios. Key Takeaways: 1️⃣ Limited First-Round Impact of Transition Risks, a sudden repricing of assets due to transition risk (a "run on brown") has a limited initial impact on financial stability. 2️⃣ Combining climate risks with adverse macroeconomic factors significantly increases financial institutions' losses, potentially hindering their lending capacity and the green transition's financing. 3️⃣ Banks face the largest losses, primarily due to credit risk, but their capital and hedging positions help mitigate the impact. They also have the potential to contribute to green financing under less severe scenarios. 4️⃣ Insurers and Institutions for Occupational Retirement Provision (IORPs) face moderate losses, mainly driven by changes in fixed-income asset values. Long-duration bond portfolios are particularly vulnerable to interest rate shocks. The report notes that its static balance sheet approach overestimates losses by not considering the impact on liabilities or mitigating hedging strategies. 5️⃣ Investment funds are most exposed to market risk, with equities bearing the effect of initial losses.  6️⃣ Contagion effects and liquidity stresses from initial shocks amplify losses, highlighting the importance of interconnections within the financial system. Opportunities: 📚 Despite challenges, banks show the potential to support green financing, particularly under the orderly transition scenario. 📚 IORPs and Insurers Role in Green Transition: As major long-term investors, IORPs and insurers can contribute significantly to the green transition by increasing investments in green bonds and other sustainable assets. 📚 The exercise provides valuable insights into climate-related vulnerabilities and their concentration, aiding future supervisory actions and risk management strategies. Challenges: ✴️ The report highlights the heterogeneity of data and methodological challenges in capturing all transmission channels of climate shocks. This underlines the need for improved data quality and methodologies. ✴️ Adverse macroeconomic developments amplify the negative impact of climate risks, posing a significant challenge to the financial system's stability. This report serves as a vital tool for policymakers, supervisors, and financial institutions in understanding climate-related financial risks. While highlighting vulnerabilities, it also underscores the opportunity for the financial sector to support the green transition and contribute to a more sustainable future. #ClimateRisk #FinancialServices #Sustainability #GreenTransition #Fitfor55 #Banking #Insurance #InvestmentFunds #ESG #EU

I’m really happy to share our recently published paper on detection and attribution of climate change impacts in natural-human systems across the Andes in South America, in Nature Communications Earth & Environment: https://lnkd.in/eJPrNYT8   Our study attributes observed changes in climatic variables, cryosphere, water, hazards, ecosystems, food security, human health, migration, tourism and culture to anthropogenic climate change – to different extents, accounting for multiple drivers of change. It thus provides evidence of observed (mainly negative) substantial impacts of anthropogenic climate change across a ca 8000 km long North-South transect of the Andes region. Particularly noteworthy, and unique for the Andes, is the assessment of cascading impacts from climate to cryosphere to ecosystems and eventually affecting human systems, and their attribution to anthropogenic climate change. My favorite is Figure 4 – have a look at it! We also included local and indigenous knowledge in the analysis. The study contributes to improved evidence of climate change impacts in the region which is essential to take urgently needed action on climate change adaptation and mitigation.   The paper is led by Ana Ochoa Sánchez and a product of the Mentoring and Training Programme in IPCC processes for Early Career Mountain Researchers, supported by the University of Zurich, Mountain Research Initiative (MRI), Helvetas, and ICIMOD, funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), where we trained a number of great early career researchers from developing countries during the past 6th Assessment Cycle of the IPCC. This was a great experience, and our colleagues are now ready to make a great contribution to the 7th Assessment Cycle of IPCC, by assessing the state of science and building highly needed bridges between science and policy. Ana Elizabeth Ochoa Sánchez, Dáithí Stone, Fabian Drenkhan, Daniel Mendoza, Ronald Gualán Geographisches Institut UZH, University of Zurich, NIWA, Universidad del Azuay

🌍 Climate change is not just an environmental crisis, it is a nutrition crisis. We are pleased to share that the Baseline Report for Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition (GAIN)'s flagship programme #I-CAN (Initiative on Climate Action and Nutrition) is now available in the public domain. Thank you #GAIN-Pakistan team, especially Faiz Rasool and Hamna Sohail, for the opportunity to contribute to this important exercise. Thank you Zaki Ullah, Dr. Umar Farooq, Dr Samreen Babar, Muhammad Ismail and Zainab Jamil for making it possible. #Pakistan faces a growing convergence of climate shocks, food insecurity, and high levels of child malnutrition. This study provides critical #evidence on how well climate and nutrition priorities are connected, and where the gaps remain. The report, “Climate and Nutrition Integration: Evidence Generation, Stakeholder Mapping, and Policy Landscape Analysis in Pakistan,” provides a comprehensive assessment of how climate change and nutrition priorities intersect within Pakistan’s policy and program landscape. What the report covers: - #Mapping of national and provincial climate, nutrition, agriculture, and food security policies - Assessment of the level of climate–nutrition integration using the global I-CAN framework (Levels 1–4) - Stakeholder mapping and analysis of institutional coordination gaps - Review of climate–nutrition initiatives, investments, and data systems - A comparative vulnerability analysis highlighting regions facing the highest combined climate and nutrition risks - Actionable recommendations to strengthen integrated, cross-sectoral responses Methodology in brief: The study adopted a mixed-methods approach, including a comprehensive desk review of national and provincial policy documents, key informant interviews (KIIs), focus group discussions (FGDs) and a national stakeholder validation workshop. Why this matters: Pakistan faces some of the world’s highest levels of child malnutrition alongside increasing climate shocks. The findings highlight that while policy awareness of the climate–nutrition link is growing, operational integration, financing, and coordinated action remain limited, pointing to a clear agenda for policymakers and development partners. This work reflects GLOW’s commitment to generating policy-relevant evidence that connects climate resilience, food systems, and human development outcomes. 📖 Access the full report here: [https://lnkd.in/d-PPvh59] #ClimateAction #Nutrition #FoodSystems #Resilience #EvidenceForPolicy #ICAN #GAIN #ClimateChange #Pakistan #GLOWConsultants Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition (GAIN) GLOW Consultants (Private) Limited IrishAid Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) Movement UNICEF UNICEF Pakistan FAO Ministry of Climate Change, Pakistan Faiz Rasool Hamna Sohail Zaki Ullah @Umar Farooq Dr Samreen Babar Muhammad Ismail Zainab Jamil

Earth's cloud cover is rapidly shrinking and contributing to record-breaking temperatures, according to new research involving the Monash-led Australian Research Council Center of Excellence for 21st Century Weather. The research, led by the United States' National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), analyzed satellite observations to find between 1.5-3% of the world's storm cloud zones have been contracting each decade in the past 24 years. The trend has been linked to changing wind patterns, the expansion of the tropics and storm systems shifting toward the North and South poles, which are all well-documented responses to climate change. With fewer clouds reflecting sunlight back into space to keep the planet cool, the warming effect of greenhouse gas emissions is being amplified and driving up global temperatures. Reduction in cloud cover is now understood to be the largest contributor to Earth's increased absorption of solar radiation. We've long known that changes in atmospheric circulation are affecting clouds. For the first time, we now have research showing those shifts are already driving major changes in how much energy the Earth absorbs. It's an important piece in the puzzle of understanding the extraordinary recent warming we observed, and a wake-up call for urgent climate action. Being able to more accurately predict where clouds form and how much sunlight they reflect will be critical to anticipating the speed and scale of future warming. It is critical that world-leading climate science research is adequately supported across international borders. If you want to understand the climate, and prepare for its impacts, you need this kind of data and this kind of analysis. It is important for all of us to realize that our climate does not care what people wish it to be, it only responds to our actions! Eliminating science that informs those actions is a perilous strategy. Future climate resilience requires a shift in thinking from climate change to weather change. It's not just long-term averages that matter, but how the day-to-day and season-to-season conditions we all rely on are changing. Our goal is to provide the knowledge and tools needed to help governments, businesses and communities prepare for what lies ahead.

Potential impact of physical climate risks 🌎 By 2050, if global warming is not kept well below 2°C, the global economy could face significant challenges, with up to 4.4% of the world’s GDP at risk of being lost annually. This projection, highlighted in recent research by S&P (2023), underscores the profound economic impact that unchecked climate change could have. The stakes are particularly high for nations with economies heavily reliant on climate-sensitive sectors, where the effects of rising temperatures could ripple across industries, leading to widespread economic instability. The ability of countries to adapt to these changes will be crucial, especially for lower-income nations that are disproportionately exposed to climate risks. These countries often lack the resources and infrastructure needed to effectively prevent or mitigate permanent losses. As the climate crisis intensifies, these vulnerabilities may lead to more severe and lasting impacts, further widening the economic disparity between nations. Strengthening adaptation plans and ensuring that vulnerable countries have the support they need will be vital to minimizing these risks. One of the key challenges in addressing physical climate risks lies in the increasing likelihood of compound climate events, where multiple climate hazards occur simultaneously or in quick succession. These events complicate climate analytics and make it more difficult to predict and respond to specific risks. Understanding these non-linear dynamics is essential for assessing the unique vulnerabilities of each country, enabling policymakers to develop more targeted and effective adaptation strategies. However, the adaptation gap is widening due to slow progress on preparedness and the tightening of financing conditions. As the impacts of climate hazards worsen, the cost of adaptation is expected to rise, making it even more difficult for countries, especially those with limited financial resources, to implement necessary measures. Source: S&P Global #sustainability #sustainable #business #esg #climatechange #climateaction #GDP #climaterisks

Physical climate risk data: the more we learn, the less we know? Khalid Azizuddin's recent piece in *Responsible Investor captures well what many practitioners are grappling with today: - asset-level data that remain incomplete or hard to interpret; - physical hazard exposure often disconnected from financial materiality; - little visibility on supply chains or customers; - adaptation and resilience efforts largely ignored; - and a risk of over-simplifying complex realities into a single “score.” Some three years ago, EDHEC Business School set out to address exactly these challenges, working to advance climate risk modelling and make decision-useful for investors, companies, and public authorities. In this work, we have developed: 🔹 a blueprint for a new generation of probabilistic climate scenarios; 🔹 high-resolution geospatial modeling capabilities to allow for geographic and sectoral downscaling, consistent with each scenario; 🔹 an open database of decarbonisation and resilience technologies through the #ClimaTech project, which officially launched this week. While the research is public, the new EDHEC Climate Institute has also been assisting a school-backed venture, Scientific Climate Ratings (SCR), which integrates this research to deliver forward-looking quantification of the #financialmateriality of climate risks for infrastructure companies and investors worldwide. While SCR provides a rating scale for comparability, it avoids the trap of over-simplification. Each rating is backed by probabilistic scenario modelling, analysis of physical and transition risk exposures, and explicit accounting for adaptation measures. The result is a synthesis that remains transparent, interpretable, and anchored in scientific rigour. Together, these initiatives aim to move the discussion from data abundance to decision relevance, equipping practitioners with tools that connect climate science, finance, and strategy.

Important new report — Climate change has arrived, with severe impacts emerging at lower temperatures than expected. The distribution has shifted – historic tail risks are now expected. ‘Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail’ is the IFoA’s third report in collaboration with climate scientists. It shows that climate risks are complex, interconnected, and could threaten the basis of our society and economy. It calls for a realistic risk assessment of climate change as a matter of urgency, taking into account the full range of outcomes, including tipping points, realistic worst-case scenarios, and the risk of ruin – the point beyond which our global society can no longer successfully adapt to climate change. It introduces the concept of Planetary Solvency to support long-term policy decisions. Just as financial solvency assessments assess the ability of a financial entity to pay claims, Planetary Solvency would combine nature, climate, and societal risk assessments to assess risks to the ecosystem services that underpin our society, both now and in the future. Sandy Trust, Lead author and Past-Chair, IFoA Sustainability Board, said: “There is an urgent need to provide policymakers with realistic assessments of climate risk if we want to see long-term policy and decisive action to accelerate the energy transition. Alongside considerations of these risks, we need to invest in educating both the public and policymakers on the positive tipping points or behavioural change which would support a more rapid transition. “As actuaries, we have a responsibility to play an active role in addressing the sustainability challenge. Our core expertise is the analysis of data to understand the range of uncertainty around future assumptions, considering risks and worst-case scenarios. The advice we provide informs the level of activity and urgency required to avoid those scenarios. In this report, we explore the idea of Planetary Solvency because we believe these techniques, most commonly used in the financial sector, could and should be adapted to manage climate risk more effectively.” https://lnkd.in/eBGXHhSJ