Geographic exposure in climate planning

Climate shocks don’t stop at the property line. They ripple through markets. When Texas experienced extreme cold in 2021, over 10 million people lost power. Buildings failed. Water systems froze. Medical facilities shut down. And insurance claims skyrocketed. For real estate owners, developers, and investors, here's what's changing: Property insurance premiums are surging in climate-exposed areas, and in some cases, coverage is disappearing entirely. But the risk isn't just about direct damage anymore, it's about cascading failures that exponentially amplify losses. The cascading risk challenge: A climate shock hits your property → Building systems fail → Tenants lose services (power, water, HVAC) → Business interruption extends → Property values decline → Insurance becomes unaffordable or unavailable Where vulnerability compounds: → Urban heat islands: City centres in major markets can be 5-7°C hotter than surrounding areas, stressing cooling systems and driving energy costs up → Infrastructure interdependence: Your building's resilience depends on water, power grids, and transport networks - all increasingly stressed by climate shocks → Equity and exposure: Properties in lower-income areas often have higher density, less green space, and poorer insulation, creating both higher risk and lower adaptive capacity What this means for real estate: Traditional risk assessments that only look at direct property damage are no longer adequate. Assessments need to consider the wider system and risk of compounding failures. This is why insurers and lenders are increasingly evaluating: -> Cascading service disruptions and extended business interruption -> City scale climate exposure across entire portfolios -> Building resilience features and adaptation measures -> Neighbourhood-level vulnerability and infrastructure capacity The opportunity: Properties with integrated climate resilience strategies - green infrastructure, nature-based solutions, resilient building systems - are positioning themselves for better insurance terms, stronger tenant retention, and preserved asset values. Rotterdam's approach to interconnected resilience shows the way with planning to address ecological, energy, social, and infrastructure resilience as one integrated strategy rather than separate risk categories. If you're in real estate investment, development, property management, or insurance underwriting, I'd value your perspective. How are you seeing climate risk impact insurance availability and property valuations in your markets? What resilience strategies are proving most effective? Let's connect and share insights on navigating this rapidly evolving landscape. 🔗 to full report in comments ♻️ Repost this to help your network 👉 Follow Dr Sophie Taysom for more

New evidence is sharpening our understanding of coastal climate risk in the Asia–Pacific region. A recent study in Scientific Reports quantifies how coastal flooding already causes USD 26.8 billion in annual losses across 29 Asia–Pacific countries. Under current policies, this figure could rise to USD 518 billion per year by 2100. Even under a 1.5 °C pathway, losses still reach USD 338 billion annually. The science is unequivocal: Small island states experience the highest relative impacts. Six million people are already affected annually, with China and Bangladesh showing the largest populations at risk, and island nations the highest exposure percentages. What is particularly notable from a scientific perspective is the study’s use of: ✅ Multi-model sea-level projections from the IPCC AR6, ✅ High-resolution ocean and tide modelling, ✅ Coupled exposure–vulnerability assessments across multiple economic sectors. The authors highlight that their estimates are conservative, as indirect losses (infrastructure disruption, supply-chain impacts, migration) are not included. This suggests that total economic and social impacts are likely to be significantly higher. From the vantage point of World Meteorological Organization, these findings reinforce a central scientific message: physical climate risks are scaling faster than societal adaptation capacity in many regions. Sea-level rise, thermal expansion, storm surge intensification, and compound flooding require integrated observation systems, advanced forecasting, and climate services that can support anticipatory planning and resilient infrastructure design. The study also provides evidence for the cost-effectiveness of adaptation. Under a 1.5 °C scenario, investing USD 9 billion in coastal defence infrastructure could avert roughly USD 157 billion in projected damages—a clear signal that climate-informed planning yields high returns. As research continues to refine projections and quantify sector-specific losses, strengthening global climate observing networks, early warning systems, and climate intelligence services becomes essential. This is exactly where #WMO’s scientific coordination and operational frameworks can support countries in translating climate data into risk-informed decisions. Scientific insights such as these are critical for guiding adaptation finance, development planning, and long-term resilience strategies—especially for the countries facing the steepest climate-related inequalities. Read the article here 👇 https://lnkd.in/ecvWz_Gz

Physical climate risk data: the more we learn, the less we know? Khalid Azizuddin's recent piece in *Responsible Investor captures well what many practitioners are grappling with today: - asset-level data that remain incomplete or hard to interpret; - physical hazard exposure often disconnected from financial materiality; - little visibility on supply chains or customers; - adaptation and resilience efforts largely ignored; - and a risk of over-simplifying complex realities into a single “score.” Some three years ago, EDHEC Business School set out to address exactly these challenges, working to advance climate risk modelling and make decision-useful for investors, companies, and public authorities. In this work, we have developed: 🔹 a blueprint for a new generation of probabilistic climate scenarios; 🔹 high-resolution geospatial modeling capabilities to allow for geographic and sectoral downscaling, consistent with each scenario; 🔹 an open database of decarbonisation and resilience technologies through the #ClimaTech project, which officially launched this week. While the research is public, the new EDHEC Climate Institute has also been assisting a school-backed venture, Scientific Climate Ratings (SCR), which integrates this research to deliver forward-looking quantification of the #financialmateriality of climate risks for infrastructure companies and investors worldwide. While SCR provides a rating scale for comparability, it avoids the trap of over-simplification. Each rating is backed by probabilistic scenario modelling, analysis of physical and transition risk exposures, and explicit accounting for adaptation measures. The result is a synthesis that remains transparent, interpretable, and anchored in scientific rigour. Together, these initiatives aim to move the discussion from data abundance to decision relevance, equipping practitioners with tools that connect climate science, finance, and strategy.

France's National Climate Adaptation Plan France is preparing for 4°C of warming by 2100 🌎 France has released its third National Climate Adaptation Plan to address projected temperature increases of up to 4°C by 2100. The plan is based on scientific projections from Météo-France and outlines a gradual adaptation path: 2°C by 2030, 2.7°C by 2050, and 4°C by the end of the century. It includes more than 80 measures aimed at preparing sectors and regions for increasingly severe climate impacts. The adaptation strategy prioritizes four geographic areas particularly vulnerable to climate change: coastlines, mountains, forests, and agricultural zones. Measures are structured around five categories: protecting public health and safety, strengthening territorial resilience, adapting economic activities, preserving natural and cultural assets, and mobilizing national financial and technical resources. The plan was developed with expert input and informed by nearly 6,000 contributions from a public consultation process. Among the specific actions are the creation of a national risk exposure map, the maintenance of affordable insurance in high-risk zones, and the redesign of housing to remain functional during extreme heat. The plan also proposes adjustments to work schedules to account for more frequent and intense heatwaves, particularly in outdoor or physically demanding sectors. These measures are intended to reduce exposure and vulnerability while maintaining productivity and service continuity. A total of €1.6 billion will be allocated starting in 2025, with €1 billion sourced from water agencies and €300 million from the Barnier Fund for disaster risk prevention. However, recent studies indicate that significantly more funding—up to €4.4 billion annually for housing renovation and €1.5 billion for agriculture—may be necessary to meet adaptation needs effectively. The implementation, coordination, and evaluation of the plan remain critical challenges highlighted by civil society organizations. France’s approach highlights the growing urgency for governments and businesses to integrate climate risk into long-term planning. Rising temperatures, extreme weather, and systemic vulnerabilities are accelerating faster than existing policy and infrastructure responses. Adaptation efforts must increase significantly in both scale and speed. At the same time, mitigation work—reducing emissions at source—must accelerate exponentially to prevent even more severe climate scenarios. Both adaptation and mitigation are essential and must be pursued simultaneously to reduce risks, protect populations, and build resilient economies. #sustainability #sustainable #mitigation #adaptation #climatechange #climatecrisis

𝙃𝙖𝙫𝙚 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙢𝙖𝙥𝙥𝙚𝙙 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙘𝙡𝙞𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙠 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙤𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙚? Most companies haven't. And I don't mean the direct risks – the flooding of your own facilities or heat stress on your workforce. I mean the hidden vulnerabilities within your supply chain. Here's what we know: extreme weather events are intensifying. At just 1.3°C of warming, the effects are clear: prolonged heatwaves, intensifying droughts, more frequent wildfires, and severe storms that bring heavier rainfall. These events have already caused thousands of deaths and displaced millions. But here's the part most boardrooms miss: you don't need to be in a flood zone to be flood-affected. Your Tier 2 supplier in South Asia might be. The agricultural inputs you depend on might come from regions experiencing consecutive crop failures. The transport routes you've used for decades might now face seasonal disruptions you haven't priced in. So what can you actually do? 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗺𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴. Look beyond your own operations: 🔹 Where are your critical suppliers located, and what climate hazards are intensifying there? 🔹 Which materials or components have concentrated geographic sources? 🔹 What alternative routes, suppliers, or materials could build resilience? 𝗘𝗻𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻. Your suppliers are living these realities daily. Ask them what they're seeing, what's changing, what support they need. 𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱 𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗽𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆, not just ESG reports. This isn't about compliance – it's about business continuity. Climate adaptation needs finance, planning, and cross-functional ownership. The 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗔𝘁𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 makes something else clear: these impacts fall hardest on those with the least protection. Communities facing poverty, fragile infrastructure, and limited services bear disproportionate burdens. Globally, #women carry an unequal burden, due to their underrepresentation in leadership and unpaid caring responsibilities. The data gaps mirror the protection gaps, especially in the Global South, where impacts are severe but monitoring and modeling remain under-resourced. And here's the critical point: 𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗽𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗲𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵. Rapid emission reductions remain essential to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. We need both. 𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗶𝘀 𝗯𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸. And it's already here.

Wau, great job! A new paper in Earth System Science Data introduces the GlobalBuildingAtlas (GBA) — a remarkable new dataset that provides a global inventory of building footprints, estimated building heights, and simple 3D building models (LoD1) for nearly the entire world. The dataset integrates multiple open building footprint sources with satellite imagery and machine-learning–based height estimation to create a consistent global representation of the built environment. In total, it contains billions of buildings worldwide, with height information available for the vast majority of them and a spatial resolution of around 3 × 3 m for height estimation. This means that, for the first time, researchers and practitioners have access to a globally consistent dataset describing both the horizontal and vertical dimensions of urban structures. Why is this important? Having globally available building footprints combined with height estimates and simple 3D models opens many new possibilities for research and planning, such as: • urbanisation and global settlement analysis • exposure and risk assessments (floods, earthquakes, heat waves) • estimation of built-up volume and urban density • energy demand modelling and urban climate studies • population and infrastructure vulnerability analyses Potential applications in flood risk modelling One particularly interesting use case is urban flood analysis. When combined with terrain models and flood simulations, datasets like GBA can help estimate: • which buildings may be affected by flooding • how many floors could potentially be inundated • the exposed built-up volume in urban areas • spatial patterns of vulnerability within cities Even though local engineering studies still require high-precision terrain and hydraulic data, a global dataset like this is extremely valuable for large-scale screening, early risk assessment, and cross-country comparisons. For countries where detailed 3D building data are not available, datasets like GlobalBuildingAtlas can significantly improve global and regional risk modelling workflows. Great example of how AI, Earth observation, and open data can be combined to better understand the built environment at planetary scale. Paper: https://lnkd.in/dPs-zit5 #Geospatial #GIS #RemoteSensing #EarthObservation #SpatialData #OpenData

*Edited to reflect new articles in comments* The Southern Ocean around Antarctica is undergoing an unexpected and alarming transformation: instead of becoming fresher from melting ice, it's rapidly getting saltier. Since 2015, sea ice has shrunk by an area the size of Greenland and hasn't returned, suggesting a major shift in the climate system. Saltier surface water draws heat from the deep ocean, making it harder for sea ice to regrow and triggering a feedback loop that accelerates warming, intensifies storms, threatens wildlife, and raises global sea levels. Scientists warn this may mark a climate tipping point. ⚠️ Implications for Business Risk 1. Global Supply Chain Disruption 🔍 Sea-level rise and extreme weather may worsen, particularly in Asia-Pacific and coastal hubs. 🔍 Antarctic changes may alter storm tracks, increasing shipping risks, insurance premiums, and port disruptions. 2. Carbon Price Volatility 🔍 If oceanic carbon sinks fail, carbon markets will tighten. Carbon-intensive companies may face higher offsets or penalties. 🔍 Climate policy could move faster and more severely than anticipated. 3. Asset Revaluation 🔍 Physical assets (real estate, infrastructure, agriculture) in vulnerable regions will face write-downs or stranded asset risks. 🔍 Water-intensive industries will suffer from changing freshwater availability and ocean acidification. 4. Investor and Regulatory Scrutiny 🔍 Climate transition and physical risks are increasingly priced into ESG frameworks, TCFD/ISSB reporting, and investor expectations. 🔍 This new data will likely accelerate regulatory demands for climate scenario planning and risk disclosure. 5. Reputation and Resilience 🔍 The narrative has shifted: climate impacts are no longer distant or abstract. Stakeholders are watching how companies respond to planetary tipping points. 🔍 Businesses seen as slow to adapt may face loss of social license or talent, especially from younger generations. 🧭 What Can Business Leaders Do Now? ➖ Reassess climate risks using worst-case scenarios. The models are evolving, so must your resilience planning. ➖ Review your exposure to supply chain bottlenecks, insurance liabilities, and vulnerable assets. ➖ Accelerate decarbonization, not just for compliance but for long-term viability. ➖ Engage in collective action, especially in sectors like finance, shipping, food, and mining that shape global climate dynamics. The UN Global Compact Network Australia is creating a climate reporting community of practice, the content and discussions will respond to the demands of the businesses participating in the community. Deep dives into climate risks and scenario planning have already been raised as areas to explore.

As 'Heat' becomes the hot topic globally, we have something meaningful to share. Tamil Nadu as a state is gaining international attention for its evolving heat governance model—a proactive, science-based approach to tackling rising temperatures. Along with other nodal departments, the Tamil Nadu State Planning Commission and the Tamil Nadu State Land Use Research Board TNSLURB have been supporting this effort through evidence-based research and analytics to mainstream Heat Action at the sub-national level. Released by the Hon’ble Chief Minister on 07.07.2025, this recent report is part of Tamil Nadu’s continuum of work on heat mitigation, UHIE analysis, and climate resilience. It was conceived to move beyond state-wide averages and bring attention to localized heat stress trends at the block level, where governance and adaptation efforts can be most impactful. The study covered 389 blocks, using high-resolution data on: — Land Surface Temperature (LST) – day & night — Air Temperature (ERA5) – max, min, mean — Building footprint changes — Urban growth patterns — Universal Thermal Comfort Index (UTCI) Two layers of analysis were undertaken: 🔹 Decadal Heat Stress: Blocks showing consistent warming over decades 🔹 Current Heat Stress: Blocks currently experiencing above-average exposure (2018–2023) The Key findings highlight a list of blocks showing significant heat rise over time and some facing high current exposure while some blocks fall under both categories which are in the priority zone for immediate interventions. This kind of detailed, spatially disaggregated analysis is helping Tamil Nadu to identify and prioritise heat-vulnerable geographies, support Heat Action Plans at block and city levels, to promote sustainable cooling and nature-based solutions. The full report is available at: www.spc.tn.gov.in Swipe through this carousel to explore the highlights. #HeatResilience #UrbanPlanning #ClimateGovernance #SustainableCooling #SmartCities #TamilNadu #SPC #TNSLURB #SDGs #ClimateAction #UrbanHeat

Is your district prone to climate risk? Explore the 'District-Level Climate Risk Assessment for India' report to find out. 𝐾𝑒𝑦 𝑡𝑎𝑘𝑒𝑎𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠: 𝖱𝗂𝗌𝗄 𝖬𝖺𝗉𝗉𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖥𝗋𝖺𝗆𝖾𝗐𝗈𝗋𝗄:    - Methodology is based on the #IPCC framework, ensuring comparability across districts by assessing risks through hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components.   - By mapping risks at the district level, it provides granular insights, enabling targeted interventions tailored to local conditions and administrative units. 𝖯𝗋𝖾𝗏𝖺𝗅𝖾𝗇𝖼𝖾 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝖣𝗂𝗌𝗍𝗋𝗂𝖻𝗎𝗍𝗂𝗈𝗇 𝗈𝖿 𝖱𝗂𝗌𝗄𝗌:    - #Floods and #droughts are the most prevalent climate hazards, affecting 87% and 30% of districts, respectively, with many regions experiencing both.   - Very high flood risk is concentrated in Assam and West Bengal, while drought risk is prominent in Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, UP, and Maharashtra. 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝖣𝗋𝗂𝗏𝖾𝗋𝗌 𝗈𝖿 𝖱𝗂𝗌𝗄:    - High risk doesn’t solely stem from hazard intensity; exposure (e.g., population density) and vulnerability (e.g., poverty) can amplify impacts.   - For Ex. in Patna, high exposure and vulnerability elevate flood risk despite a lower hazard index. 𝖣𝗎𝖺𝗅 𝖱𝗂𝗌𝗄 𝖢𝗁𝖺𝗅𝗅𝖾𝗇𝗀𝖾𝗌:    - 11 districts, including Alappuzha, and several in Assam, face dual risks of floods and droughts, driven by erratic rainfall patterns and geographic vulnerabilities.   - These districts require integrated adaptation strategies to address overlapping hazards, such as managing monsoon floods and subsequent dry spells. 𝖢𝖺𝗉𝖺𝖼𝗂𝗍𝗒 𝖡𝗎𝗂𝗅𝖽𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝖯𝗈𝗅𝗂𝖼𝗒 𝖱𝖾𝗅𝖾𝗏𝖺𝗇𝖼𝖾: - The project conducted workshops for ‘state climate change cells’ fostering the ability to replicate risk assessments and develop state-specific risk maps.   -Findings support the integration of climate risk into State Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCCs) for securing #climatefinance. 𝖴𝗍𝗂𝗅𝗂𝗍𝗒 𝖿𝗈𝗋 𝖣𝖾𝖼𝗂𝗌𝗂𝗈𝗇-𝖬𝖺𝗄𝗂𝗇𝗀:    - District-level risk maps enable policymakers to identify and prioritize interventions in high-risk areas, optimizing resource allocation for adaptation measures.   - Risk indices empower local communities to advocate for compensation or insurance, enhancing grassroots resilience against climate impacts. 𝖥𝗎𝗍𝗎𝗋𝖾 𝖣𝗂𝗋𝖾𝖼𝗍𝗂𝗈𝗇𝗌:  - The report suggests developing risk indices for sectors like agriculture and urban water supply to address specific vulnerabilities.   - It recommends extending assessments to future climate scenarios and other hazards-e.g., landslides and heat stress.

🚨 Flood Risk Mapping Meets Infrastructure Planning in Costa Rica🌊🛣️ Using GEE, to assess the Flood Risk Index combining key factors as: slope, rainfall, elevation, land use, and proximity to rivers — each weighted based on its influence. 🗺️ The result? A dynamic risk surface showing where floods are most likely to occur. But here's the insight that matters most: 📍 Several critical roads intersect high-risk flood zones — exposing communities, emergency routes, and logistics corridors to potential isolation. This kind of spatial analysis helps us anticipate risk, prioritize interventions, and build resilience — especially in the face of increasing climate extremes. 📌 Why This Matters This type of geospatial modeling provides critical foresight — especially valuable in regions exposed to seasonal storms and climate extremes. It enables: Smarter urban and infrastructure planning 🏗️ Faster, more strategic emergency response 🚒 Greater long-term resilience for both people and assets 🤝 ✅ In conclusion: The integration of flood risk mapping with infrastructure overlays empowers us to make proactive, data-driven decisions. It’s a step toward building safer, more climate-resilient communities — where no one is left behind when disaster strikes. #GEOLUXcs #GIS #RemoteSensing #ClimateResilience #DisasterRiskReduction #GoogleEarthEngine #GeospatialAnalysis #FloodMapping #SustainablePlanning