First-of-its-kind climate vulnerability study

Building Resilient Agri-Food Systems in the Face of Climate Change The latest study by the Inter-American Development Bank delves into the relationship between climate change vulnerability and food security in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Using panel data analysis, Lina Salazar, Mario Gonzalez Flores, and Luis Álvaro Álvarez examined how economic, social, geographical, and environmental factors shape regional vulnerability and food security dimensions: availability, access, use, and stability. Key findings: - Climate Vulnerability and Undernourishment: A 1-point increase in climate vulnerability correlates with a 1.14% rise in undernourishment, particularly in the Andean, Caribbean, and Central American regions. - Food Availability: Climate vulnerability reduces food production by 4.1% per vulnerability point, with the Caribbean most affected, followed by Andean and Central American countries. In the Southern Cone, reducing drought impacts is critical. - Food Access: A 1-point increase in climate vulnerability corresponds to a 3.3% rise in monetary poverty, affecting food access across the region. - Food Use (Nutrition): Higher climate vulnerability is linked to increased child stunting, particularly in Andean (3.2%) and Caribbean (1.8%) countries. Floods and droughts exacerbate stunting in Central America and Andean nations. - Policy Implications: Investments in climate resilience, particularly in Andean, Caribbean, and Central American countries, can significantly improve food security, availability, access, and nutritional outcomes. Prioritizing actions that mitigate drought impacts and address disaster effects is essential. Link to the full study: https://lnkd.in/d6q2r28E #ClimateChange #FoodSecurity #SustainableDevelopment #Agriculture #LatinAmerica #Resilience #ResearchInsights

🌾 I'm always excited when an Acumen Resilient Agriculture Fund (ARAF) impact study crosses my desk for a review. The resilience indicators built into these scorecards always yield juicy insights -- we can see at a glance if climate vulnerability is driven by particular farming practices, like tilling, lack of access to an enabling service, like credit or extension -- to help companies identify resilience-building solutions. This new report from Acumen and ARAF brings that work to life. It draws from conversations with over 5,700 farmers across 11 enterprises to understand what climate resilience really looks like on the ground. It’s also a rare example of something we need more of in this space: ✅ Farmer-focused ✅ Practical ✅ Willing to embrace complexity without losing sight of real lives At 60 Decibels, we’ve been lucky to support this effort. 📣 Huge shoutout to Acumen + ARAF for pushing forward a smarter, more human approach to resilience. Christopher Wayne Rebecca Mincy Coco Lim Ida Mwango Luan Mans If you’re working in climate finance, ag, or measurement: this report is absolutely worth a read → https://lnkd.in/eWyTg-Ca

I am delighted to share our latest paper, “Who Bears the Burden? An Assessment of Vulnerability and Resilience to Consecutive Disasters”. In this study, we analyzed three back-to-back climate-related disasters (2020 wildfire smoke, 2021 winter snowstorm, and 2021 extreme heatwave) in the Portland-Metro region. Using data from 416 census tracts, we correlated social vulnerability (SoVI), resilience (BRIC) with hazard impacts and proximity to community-based organizations (CBOs). 1.       We find that communities already facing air pollution, heat islands, and poor infrastructure were hit hardest. 2.       Migrant workers, non-US citizens, racial minorities, and low-income households experienced disproportionate impacts due to existing vulnerability. However, affluent areas and populations in those areas had slightly lower exposure, lower social vulnerability, and higher resilience. 3.       CBOs, although concentrated in high-risk areas, lacked the resources to significantly reduce disaster impacts. 4.       Furthermore, heat-related mortality was more closely linked to social vulnerability and poor housing conditions than age alone. Less than a quarter of the region’s population lived in areas hit by two or more extreme events, compounding risks. This study is a call for multi-hazard planning and environmental justice. As climate extremes become more frequent and complex, we must build localized, equity-centered disaster-reduction strategies. Investment in infrastructure, housing retrofits, green space, and CBO capacity building will be essential to prepare communities for the growing risk of consecutive disasters. Many thanks to NSF NCAR - The National Center for Atmospheric Research for sponsoring this study and to my research team and collaborators: Jason Sauer, Matthew Walter, James Done, Ming G, Elliott Gall, Aswatha Raghunathasami, Paul Loikith, Chris Lower, Heejun Chang, Arun Pallathadka, and Mae Sowards.   Idowu Ajibade et al 2025 Environ. Res. Lett. 20 084006 Click here for a free download of the article: https://lnkd.in/eK5SQcmU

🌧️⚠️ New Research Published! Proud to share our latest work in the Journal of Earth System Science (Springer). 📘 Full Article: https://lnkd.in/dpZykFCA 📄 Title: Analysis of flash flood incidents triggered by cloudbursts and heavy downpours over Jammu and Kashmir, India: Spatiotemporal characteristics and implications 🌍 What Our Study Reveals ✔️ 68 extreme rainfall-triggered flash flood incidents analysed across J&K (2011–2022) ✔️ Strong monsoon dominance, with most cloudburst events between May–August ✔️ Distinct elevation control, with peak occurrence between 3,100–4,100 m ✔️ High-susceptibility districts: Ganderbal, Pulwama, Kishtwar, Poonch & Doda ✔️ Basin-scale hotspots identified for targeted mitigation and preparedness ✔️ Provides a first-of-its-kind spatiotemporal dataset for Himalayan flash-flood research 🔎 Why This Matters Flash floods triggered by cloudbursts are emerging as one of the most destructive hydro-meteorological hazards in the Himalayas. Our findings offer: • Better understanding of risk zones • Inputs for early warning and forecasting systems • Scientific support for climate-resilient planning • A baseline for future hydrological and hazard modelling Grateful to my mentors Dr Harish Bahuguna Sir, co-authors and colleagues for their support throughout this work. Excited to continue contributing to Himalayan geohazard research and sustainable mountain development.

RISKTHINKING.AI RELEASES GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK RANKINGS FOR THE WORLD’S LARGEST CORPORATIONS Today, RiskThinking.ai revealed the first quantitative ranking of corporate climate vulnerabilities. This analysis includes 13,000 global companies, representing over $80 trillion in market capitalization, and is based on scenario-driven modelling of six million material physical assets worldwide. The rankings provide companies, as well as their investors, lenders, insurers, and regulators, with a robust foundation to assess climate risk, identify their most exposed physical assets, and pursue science-based evaluations to guide critical adaptation investments amid accelerating climate change.   Based on millions of sophisticated climate simulations, these rankings are presented through intuitive, open-source reports that are publicly accessible. Users can look up any company to view its overall ranking and a detailed asset-level breakdown across four escalating risk categories: Low Risk, At Risk, Stressed, and Stranded. Stranded assets may face projected damages exceeding their value. RiskThinking.ai is deeply committed to highlighting climate risk and revealing hidden vulnerabilities that, if left unaddressed, could destabilize markets, businesses, and communities,” says Dr. Ron Dembo, Founder and CEO of RiskThinking.ai. “After years of collaboration with leading corporations, financial institutions, and regulators, we believe it’s time for the public to access these insights and raise awareness of this urgent risk.” The rankings are powered by RiskThinking.ai’s Climate Digital Twin (CDT™). This global risk platform merges the world’s most comprehensive physical asset database with high-resolution global hazard data and a robust stochastic analytics engine.   To search for companies and their climate vulnerability rank, please visit: https://lnkd.in/geBEc2wX #physicalrisk #ranking #vulnerability #insurance #banking #climate

Happy to share a recent working paper, "Physical Climate Risks, Firm Defaults, and Supply Chain Network Propagation," led by Daniel (Dong) Dao, PhD, CFA. This is part of our research in the India Transition Finance Programme and the Environmental Stress Testing and Scenarios project at the Oxford Sustainable Finance Group at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment - University of Oxford. Background: - The impacts of physical climate risks could be significant in supply chain networks.  - This paper develops a forward-looking framework to quantify expected systemic economic losses from physical climate risks. - Our sample consists of 1,874 publicly listed Indian firms, connected through 28,164 mapped supply-chain relationships from 2019 to 2023. Results: - Physical climate risks can threaten macroeconomic stability, particularly under high-risk scenarios. - A 1% increase in the composite physical risk score is associated with a 2% reduction in a firm’s distance to default,  - The failure of a single firm with the highest systemic risk could disrupt production equivalent to roughly 13% of the entire economy. - The power sector supply chain accounts for nearly 30% of aggregate output losses across scenarios. Implications: - There is a need for low-risk climate pathways and proactive supply chain management to mitigate systemic economic losses. - Regulators and policymakers should treat climate vulnerability as a macroeconomic and financial stability concern. - Policymakers should adopt climate-resilient infrastructure norms for firms in power sector supply chain. #climaterisk #physicalrisk #defaultrisk #economiclosses #india #supplychain #powersector #regulators #policymakers https://lnkd.in/g6yt2JrD

Researchers have simulated what Valencia's flood would have looked like without climate change. Valencia saw extreme rainfall in October 2024. To identify the contribution of anthropogenic climate change, they applied conditional attribution - a method that replays the exact storm under pre-industrial climate conditions - to isolate climate change's contribution. Using 15 climate models to perturb temperature and moisture fields, then re-running the event at 1-km resolution, the authors compare what happened against what would have happened without human emissions. This approach reveals storm mechanics invisible to statistical methods. Warmer Mediterranean seas loaded the atmosphere with excess moisture, driving stronger convective instability, more vigorous updrafts, and denser ice formation - pushing rainfall intensity well beyond what thermodynamics alone would predict. The next step is connecting these physical insights to adaptation planning for Mediterranean cities. By Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Javier Díaz Fernández, Juan Jesús González Alemán, Amar Halifa-Marín, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and more.

What do countries most affected by climate-related security risks consider the greatest threats? What are the biggest gaps in addressing them? We asked them in a first-of-kind capacity gap assessment drawing on first-hand survey data from the #ClimatePeaceandSecurity Experts Academy. We share here for the first time analysis of this data set, drawing on unique insights from 245 climate change negotiators, policymakers, regional organization officials, peacebuilding practitioners, youth leaders and financing experts from 80 countries including those most affected by climate, fragility, conflict and violence. The data shows: - 74% of policymakers identified #climatesecurity as a high or very high priority - 39% identified increased resource scarcity and competition as the greatest challenge in their country/region, 19% climate-related displacement and forced migration - Just 1/3 of policymakers and experts working on climate/environment reported that they know and/or collaborate with colleagues on peace and security, and vice versa - Surprisingly, more policymakers identify capacities as the most critical gap (81%) compared to financing (70%). See breakdowns by risk groups, regions, thematics, disaggregated by youth and gender here: https://lnkd.in/erTXkTS7 With thanks Cairo International Center for Conflict Resolution, Peacekeeping and Peacebuilding (CCCPA) Sida and #ClimateSecurityMechanism, all our co-collaborators and participants who contributed their perspectives to this dataset, its collection and curation. UNDP Climate UNDP Crisis Action UNDP Egypt UNDP Resilience Hub for Africa

📢 New Publication Alert! Our latest paper, just published in Biology and Environment, presents the first systematic review of how extreme weather events (EWEs) impact ecosystems in Ireland. 🌧️🔥🌊 We synthesized 251 global studies, including 22 focused on Irish ecosystems, to evaluate how floods, droughts, heatwaves, and storms are altering biodiversity and ecosystem health across freshwater, terrestrial, and marine environments. 🔍 Key insights: EWEs often lead to declines in species richness, abundance, and function. Some species with adaptive traits show resilience, especially in high-biodiversity or refuge areas. There’s a pressing need to integrate EWE projections into conservation and management planning, especially in protected areas. 📍 This is the first study of its kind in Ireland and was funded by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Ireland through the research project “The Impact of Extreme Climatic Events on Ecosystems – Scoping Study (2022-CE-1152)”. 📖 Read the full paper here: https://lnkd.in/gBmmRSPe #Biodiversity #ClimateChange #ExtremeWeatherEvents #Ireland #MarineEcosystems University College Dublin UCD Civil Engineering UCD EngArch UCD School of Biology and Environmental Science Elke Eichelmann Mary Kelly-Quinn

🔴 🌎 More than 2 billion people live in the 65 most at-risk #RedZone nations! A new study by the Columbia Climate School, supported by the The Rockefeller Foundation, has developed a powerful new tool: the Climate Finance Vulnerability Index (CLiF Vi) that ranks 188 countries by their climate risk assessments and funding allocations, and could transform how we monitor adaptation finance while informing indicators like the Global Goal on Adaptation (#GGA). As someone working and deeply invested in #climateadaptation, the findings aren’t a surprise, but I really value the approach of this study. The index goes beyond climate exposure, integrating financial accessibility, governance structures, and multidimensional risk factors to tell a more complete story of a country’s vulnerability. Why does this matter? Because the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is rising, and equitable adaptation financing, especially through global concessional finance, remains critical for the most at-risk nations. Yet, the numbers are sobering: 📉 UNEP (2024) estimates #adaptationfinance needs at USD 215–387 billion/year. 💰 Actual international public adaptation finance in 2022 was just USD 27.5 billion (a record high, but far from enough), most of it from MDBs and bilateral donors, but 62% in the form of loans. 🔄 Meanwhile, mitigation still receives the bulk of international climate finance (53%), with adaptation trailing at 34%. This imbalance leaves the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries trapped in a cycle of high risk and low access to capital. Tools like CLiF Vi help sharpen global dialogues by spotlighting very high-risk nations and informing more effective strategies for adaptation financing. 💡 Personally, I found the multidimensionality of the tool most compelling, especially its integration of governance structures into the assessment. After all, financial support is only as impactful as the systems in place to use it. Also, did not expect to see #Tuvalu at rank 14! Definitely worth digging deeper into the reasoning. 👉 Explore the index: clifvi.org 📑 Read the full paper: https://lnkd.in/gGDnPFqK