Holiday Marketing Tips

🎁 I'm delighted to launch our latest research in partnership with Vinted which reveals a fascinating shift in Christmas shopping behaviour. Second-hand gifting is set to hit £2bn, accounting for over 10% of all gift spending. ➡️ Key Findings: 💠£2bn expected to be spent on 2nd hand gifts 💠Nearly 2/3rds (63%) of 2nd hand shoppers have bought pre-loved items as Christmas gifts before, rising to 79% of those aged 25 to 34 💠43% are selling items to fund their Christmas shopping 💠63% are comfortable receiving 2nd hand gifts What fascinates me about our research isn't just the scale - it's the profound implications for retail's future operating model. ♻️ Category Disruption There's virtually no stigma attached to buying pre-loved. It's a badge of honour for many. When 63% of consumers are comfortable receiving second-hand items, it fundamentally challenges the traditional retail model. I think this is especially the case in luxury and children's wear. Luxury retailers need to rethink their value equation - when scarcity and uniqueness can be achieved through pre-loved channels, what becomes their differentiator? 🌐 The Parallel Consumption Economy Traditional retailers are operating in parallel with a rapidly growing secondary market that's becoming increasingly mainstream. With 53% of under-45s buying second-hand monthly, we're not witnessing simple channel shift - we're seeing the emergence of a sophisticated parallel economy with its own rules, behaviours and value drivers. It's a fundamental expansion of how retail value is created and captured. Product attributes that support strong residual value - quality, durability, timeless design - are becoming a more important as consumers account for future resale potential. The vast majority (84%) of Vinted buyers said that they find the quality of second-hand items bought on Vinted as good or even better than new items.  Here's where it gets really interesting. 🔄 The Pre-loved Market Multiplier Products are becoming value multipliers through repeated resale cycles. A single item can generate value many times over as it changes hands. Take a luxury handbag - it might be resold 10 times or more in its lifetime, with cumulative transaction values potentially exceeding the original price. This creates a fascinating dynamic where: ➡️ Product provenance becomes a critical value driver ➡️ Provenance data become strategic assets ➡️ Recoverable value becomes a purchase driver ➡️ Brands have opportunities to capture value from secondary sales (Think 2nd hand cars) The implications are clear: retailers need to stop viewing the second-hand market as a separate ecosystem and start seeing it as an integral part of their customer's journey. Successful retailers won't just sell products once - they'll capture value throughout a product's entire lifetime journey. (Research findings covered in the BBC, The Guardian, Independent, Retail Week, Retail Gazette, Drapers and others).

How healthy is the U.S. consumer? So far through 2023, consumers’ spending has defied expectations and remained robust despite high rates of inflation. This then raises the question: how much will the consumer spend at retailers as we move into the critical Q4 period? The chart below attempts to provide some guidance by adjusting the monthly retail sales data for inflation using the CPI for commodities (a permanent FRED link to the data used in this chart can be found at https://lnkd.in/gDADwQSD). Data run through August of this year. Thoughts. •In this chart, I’ve plotted seasonally and inflation adjusted retail trade sales and included the 2014 – 2019 trendline (estimated using SOLVER in Excel using Ordinary Least Squares). •Looking at the pattern, we see the surge above the trendline starting June 2020 when consumers came out of COVID-19 lockdowns with stimulus money and fewer chances to spend on services, so America goes shopping. That behavior was supercharged starting March 2021 with stimulus round 3. Subsequently, retail sales have flatlined since about July 2021, which is a substantial change from the upward pre-COVID trendline.  •In terms of forecasting Q4 2023, my expectation would be for inflation adjusted sales to come in around the levels we saw last year given the flat trend (and possibly down a percent or two given the economic uncertainty, resumption of student loan payments, and higher interest rates). •There is no evidence yet of a collapse of retail sales like we saw in Q4 2008, where inflation adjusted retail sales dropped ~8% from Q4 2007 levels (see https://lnkd.in/gFWeC9fm). •These data likely explain, in part, why containerized imports remain above 2019 levels (https://lnkd.in/gcacg7Kf). Implication: there are no signs yet that consumer spending at retailers is set to fall sharply (certainly nothing like we saw in 2008). All data points towards this holiday season having sales volumes around where they were last year (and maybe down one or two percent). #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #shipsandshipping #ecommerce #freight #trucking

How can brands and retailers stand out this Holiday season amid judicious spending and unabated inflation? the race to launch even earlier #Holiday deals has created one long, continuous promotional cycle. It also trains customers to wait for sales and only buy at reduced prices, significantly impacting brand equity and profits. Here are some holiday promotion strategies to avoid this race to the bottom: 💶 Commit to price transparency as shoppers become increasingly weary of price gouging. Rather than helping overcome consumer scepticism about the discounts offered, they can lead to more of it. Look to 2023's viral TikTok hashtag #BlackFridayIsAScam. Similarly, Amazon customers found that merchants inflated their prices ahead of Black Friday 2023 to promote steeper discounts, driving down trust 💬 Have the confidence to hold sales until peak periods. While last year’s earlier start saw some retailers begin their promotional cycles as soon as August, a spike in sales didn’t actually occur until a few days before Black Friday and Christmas. Target saw its first visit peak of the 2023 season the day before Thanksgiving (up 22.1%) while department stores experienced a 183.6% spike in visits two days before Christmas. This year, two-thirds of shoppers say they’re holding out on making big purchases until #CyberWeek, according to Salesforce 📊 Double down on dynamic pricing. Use data and AI to develop an innovative promotion and discount strategy. Utilise time-sensitive models and a differentiated merchandising mix to more easily adjust to Holiday market conditions and shopper preferences in real-time 📌 Rather than appeal to all shoppers, target promotions to your most loyal customers. Salesforce predicts two out of five purchases over the 2024 Holiday season will be from a repeat buyer. Coupled with the fact that 77% of US consumers who have retail subscriptions buy more from brands they have relationships with, Holiday loyalty schemes will have a big impact 🎊 Create limited-time product bundles or gift sets that combine complementary items, offering convenience and savings without sacrificing perceived value 💰 Launch deals consumers actually want. To cut through the discounting noise, retailers must deliver more individualised discounts. 83% of US consumers are interested in receiving personalised offers Any other advice for brands and retailers ramping-up their #BlackFriday and #Christmas promotions?

The future of holiday marketing comes down to a new equation. And most brands aren’t solving for it. When I look at how consumer behavior has shifted, the holiday path to purchase no longer resembles a funnel. It is an intricate mix of: Searching  Scrolling Streaming Shopping  …happening all at once. Last season, 64% of U.S. shoppers blended these behaviors, moving across tabs, apps, and platforms constantly. On average, people now engage with over 130 mobile touchpoints every day. That complexity is changing how purchases happen. Spontaneous holiday buys dropped from 30% to 26% year over year, while researched purchases went up. And 61% of shoppers now say they are more choiceful with how they spend, largely due to economic uncertainty. Google calls this the “new value equation.” To feel confident, today’s shoppers validate their decisions on three fronts: 1. The right price – Nearly half will actively compare prices and wait for promotions. 2. Product confidence – 66% say quality and durability matter most, with YouTube now ranked the #1 source for product reviews. 3. Purchase convenience – 92% of in-store visits begin with an online search, and checkout friction can instantly kill momentum. Holiday success will depend on showing up across the 4S behaviors with accurate product data, trusted creator content, and frictionless purchase experiences. Strategies around this value equation will convert cautious researchers into confident buyers. Those who adapt to the new value equation will capture more market share and build lasting trust when it matters most.

Santa just sent a memo: 🎅 “2025 holiday growth will be… meh.” Deloitte’s fresh forecast isn’t the shiny gift we wanted under the tree. Total US holiday sales are expected to rise only +2.9–3.4%, the slowest pace since the pandemic. Last year we had +4.2%, so yes, the punch bowl is a little emptier. But there’s still sparkle. Ecommerce is set to grow +7–9% while physical stores crawl along at +2–2.2%. Translation: Amazon, Walmart, Target and TikTok Shop are where the holiday magic still happens. Why it matters: 🎯 More elbows in the aisle → same shoppers, more brands fighting for share 🛒 Digital carts first → sloppy PDPs or weak SEO will cost you dearly 💸 Shoppers want deals → too much discounting will kill your margin faster than fruitcake 📦 Ops stress test → late cutoffs mean late gifts, and nobody wants that What to do before the rush: 🔍 Polish your hero SKUs with flawless keywords, images and A+ content 📊 Spend smarter, not bigger, by focusing ads on proven high converters 🎁 Use bundles and multipacks to hit price points without bleeding margin ⏱️ Stage promotions around peak weeks instead of one desperate push 🚚 Lock logistics early so cutoffs and returns are smooth and predictable This holiday season is not about surfing a demand wave. It is about execution while everyone else scrambles at checkout. So tell me, what’s your secret move to stay profitable in a slower Christmas? #Ecommerce #Marketplaces #HolidaySales #Amazon #TikTokShop #Walmart #ChannelMojo

Margins are a real-life thing, and discounting isn’t always the way x So I pulled together a few ideas for how you can still make the most of this season and keep your community engaged without being in the red right after Christmas 👇 1. Bundles (that make sense please) Not just random bits thrown together. Check your data. What do people actually buy together? Or what’s their first and second purchase combo? That’s your bundle. 2. BOGOF (check your margins) Still gives people that “deal” feeling without slicing your profits. You could also do a gift-with-purchase like “spend £250, get an item worth £30.” We’ve done this for jewellery clients and it works every single time. 3. Limited edition products or scents If you’re manufacturing, go for it. If not, maybe a small seasonal twist or collab drop. People love a theme. 4. Run a charity or give-back campaign If you don’t want to get sucked into BFCM chaos but still want purpose, link up with a charity that aligns with your brand and your customers. Tell that story. 5. Early access for loyal customers Turn exclusivity into loyalty, but make sure it’s actually for your loyal customers. cough why am I getting VIP emails from brands I’ve never bought from cough 6. Experiential gifting I loooove this one. Pair your product with a playlist, a note, or even a mini ritual. Make it feel like an experience, not just a purchase. 7. Community giveaway If you’re not discounting, give back another way. A small giveaway for your existing customers goes such a long way. We always focus so hard on new customers and forget the ones already here. 8. Christmas partnerships Creators, small brands, other businesses, collaborate. It’s fresh energy and new eyes without discounting a thing. 9. Gift cards in exchange for info Offer a small voucher for answering a few questions. It’s worked so well with our clients. You get data, they get something useful. 10. Highlight ways to pay Klarna, Clearpay, ShopPay. They’re basically built-in discounts for your customers. Make them obvious. Don’t hide them till checkout. Discounts have their place, but connection lasts way longer 🍀

𝗬𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗝𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗦𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗮 ₹𝟵𝟵𝟵 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 ₹𝟮,𝟰𝟵𝟵. 𝗬𝗼𝘂'𝗿𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗥𝘂𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟮𝟬% 𝗢𝗳𝗳. 𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲'𝘀 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘆'𝗿𝗲 𝗪𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴. Most D2C brands treat December as "clear inventory with discounts." Meanwhile, MyFlowerTree reports consumers are increasingly moving towards stylish, premium, and experience-oriented gifting this Christmas 2025. IGP just launched 30-minute personalized gift delivery across 30+ cities in September 2025. What's happening? Indians aren't buying cheap gifts. They're buying meaningful ones. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐬 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐮𝐦 𝐓𝐞𝐬𝐭 Here's something counterintuitive: Christmas is when people are most willing to pay premium prices – not because they're feeling generous, but because emotional stakes are high. A ₹500 gift feels cheap. A ₹2,000 thoughtfully curated gift feels appropriate. This is your window to test premium positioning without heavy marketing spend. If your regular product is ₹999, bundle it with complementary items and sell at ₹2,499 as a "Christmas Gift Hamper." No discount needed. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 2025 𝐈𝐬 𝐓𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 MyFlowerTree's data shows the most ordered categories this Christmas include premium chocolate and dry fruit hampers, personalized keepsakes with festive themes (custom mugs, photo frames, calendars), and candle and home decor gift sets. The insight? Personalization drives purchases – consumers add custom notes, names, and photographs, creating gifts that build lasting emotional memories rather than fleeting moments. IGP understood this. Their growth isn't from cheaper products – it's from faster, more personalized delivery. Premium service, premium price, premium perception. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐃2𝐂 𝐅𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬 Stop discounting in December. Instead, reposition your products as gifting solutions. Bundle your ₹800 product with ₹200 worth of items and sell at ₹1,500 – higher margins, premium positioning. Add simple personalization options – gift wrapping, custom notes, festive packaging. Create urgency around emotional deadlines ("Order by Dec 23 for Christmas delivery"), not discount timers. Test your premium positioning now. If customers pay ₹1,500 for your ₹999 product during Christmas, that's your real market price – you've just been underpricing it all year. The brands winning this December aren't racing to the bottom with discounts. They're using gifting psychology to prove their products deserve premium positioning. Merry Christmas! May your brand discover its true premium potential this season. #christmas #D2C #premium #branding #gifting #strategy 

Black Friday has evolved from panic at the disco store chaos to 24/7 online browsing, but this year marks a different shift: it's the first holiday season where AI is officially part of the shopping ritual. 🛒🤖 Simon-Kucher reported that 54% of consumers plan to use AI for holiday shopping, mostly for product reviews, comparisons, price tracking, and gift ideas. At the same time, 46% say they won’t use AI because they still want a human touch in gift-giving. https://lnkd.in/e97HQKcF That tension is fascinating with tech efficiency colliding with emotional intent. The adoption gap also follows a predictable pattern: Gen Z and Millennials lean in, while Gen X and Boomers hold back. No surprises there. Here's what's interesting to me: 1️⃣ Holiday shopping is now a stress test for retail AI. The past month of reporting shows retailers’ recommendation engines, AI search layers, dynamic pricing systems, and optimization models are all under heavy strain during this holiday shopping season. This is the first real-world trial of whether their AI infrastructure can handle both the volume and the expectations. 2️⃣ The purchase funnel is quietly being rewritten. In IAB Research published in October on AI x shopping, we found 57% of consumers use AI for product comparisons, 53% for product-specific questions and 53% for price tracking and deals. https://lnkd.in/euUFnFGW Deloitte's recent study on AI's effect on holiday shopping also noted price tracking highly at 56% of their study. https://lnkd.in/eT8NkjbT Awareness ➡️ Consideration ➡️ Conversion now sees the consideration phase being collapsed with AI. 3️⃣ The center of gravity is shifting from traditional ads to product data. The most meaningful change isn’t a new ad unit. It’s that brands are now optimizing product data, metadata, structured content, images, and reviews to ensure brand visibility in AI platforms. Visibility now depends on how “AI-ready” your catalog is. 4️⃣ Yes, AI-driven shopping is up, but spending patterns are more complicated. Consumers plan to spend 6% more this year, but Simon-Kucher says this is mostly due to tariffs and higher prices, not because they’re buying more. 5️⃣ And with AI in the mix, trust matters even more. This season is already seeing issues with price camouflage, deal inflation, and scams, a reminder that “AI-powered shopping” needs transparency and consumer protections to scale responsibly. ⭐️ The BIG PICTURE ⭐️ Black Friday 2025 isn’t just about commerce. It’s a preview of what AI-mediated shopping will look like when agents become the default discovery interface. And the brands that win won’t necessarily spend the most on ads...they’ll be the ones whose product data is structured cleanly enough for AI systems to understand and recommend. #ai #shopping #blackfriday

TJX Raises Outlook as Consumer Shifts Shape a Divided Retail Economy The TJX Companies, Inc., the parent of T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, delivered another strong quarter and raised its full-year earnings forecast after a 7 percent revenue gain and double-digit profit growth. Comparable sales rose 4 percent and net income topped a billion dollars, with management saying the quarter is “off to a strong start.” Shares moved higher in early trading as investors rewarded the company’s ability to offset tariffs and capture value-seeking consumers. The results highlight how uneven the retail landscape has become. Off-price chains are thriving as households search for bargains, while department stores continue to close locations and struggle with shrinking margins. Mass-market retailers remain cautious in their guidance, unsure how much cost pressure they can absorb. Luxury is also split: the very top tier of brands that sell scarcity and timeless icons remain resilient, but broader luxury sales have cooled as global uncertainty weighs on demand. This divergence reflects a consumer who is engaged but selective. Spending remains positive, but the mix has shifted. Essentials like groceries and gas are absorbing more of the wallet, while discretionary categories such as apparel and dining are more volatile. Consumer sentiment has slipped in recent months, reflecting concern about tariffs, inflation, and the labor market, yet wages and disposable incomes are still providing support. Households are adapting (not retreating) by trading down on everyday goods, rewarding clear value, and reserving splurges for categories that feel indispensable. The outlook points to more of the same. Off-price retailers and select luxury labels are likely to keep outperforming, while mid-tier players remain under strain. Walmart’s earnings later this week will offer a key test of how the middle of the market is holding up, especially in grocery. The holiday season will then serve as the real stress test, as consumers balance steady incomes with softer confidence, rising credit usage, and tariff uncertainty. At Havas Edge we track these shifts because they reveal how consumer behavior intersects with economic pressure. Understanding where households spend, where they pull back, and how they navigate uncertainty helps us anticipate the sectors and strategies best positioned to succeed. #RetailEarnings #ConsumerBehavior #KShapedEconomy

✨ Beauty Brands: Here’s Why Your Holiday Strategy Must Be Value-Led, with Stats (and Examples) to Back It Up Holiday 2025 will be tougher than usual. Consumers are holding the purse strings tighter but what about beauty? 💄 Beauty remains resilient Despite financial pressures, real-term spending on beauty & personal care is still growing, the famous “lipstick effect.” Many consumers now regard beauty as a “non-negotiable”, even reprioritising spend away from other categories. The UK beauty industry has risen dramatically, now worth £30.4bn, growing 4× faster than the economy, and even outpacing spend on leisure. ⏰ Consumers Are Starting Holiday Shopping Earlier. Especially for Beauty Last year stats: - 34.8% of UK consumers began Christmas shopping earlier in 2024 than the year before. - 48% had bought most of their presents by early December, up from 43% the previous year. - Women & Gen Z lead the charge: 77% of women start in November or earlier; 29% of 18–24-year-olds start even earlier. 🏷️ Real Brand Examples of Value-Led Holiday Campaigns ALLIES OF SKIN stretched Black Friday into a month-long campaign, reducing urgency but building trust, delivering 80%+ YoY growth. P Louise launched gifting early, with payment plans for its £110 & £250 advent calendars, making them more accessible to younger, budget-conscious buyers. Liberty. staged holiday beauty into three phases: July pre-sales for loyalists, editorial storytelling to build hype, & a September full launch. GLOSSYBOX offered an £85 advent calendar (worth £585) - a 6× value multiplier that drove subscriber loyalty. Boots UK released £20 “little luxury baubles” stuffed with minis valued up to £68, perfect value stocking fillers. 📧 What This Means for Beauty Marketers Beauty remains a priority spend. Campaigns should lean into value while preserving perceived quality. Holiday shopping starts earlier. Launch gift sets, bundles, and content well before Black Friday. Value sensitivity is high. Highlight payment plans, smaller curated sets, and discount messaging strategically. 🚀 Why esbconnect & Optivo Are the Q4 Power Channel Retarget those anonymous high-intent browsers and trigger urgency in real time via email : “Only 250 advent calendars left, secure yours now.” Target new customers & encourage them to subscribe ahead of Q4 with early access to sales or added perks Promote value clearly to new customers and avoid discounts with payment plan messaging and curated bundles delivered to inboxes. Get into the inbox of new customers & build anticipation early: Use teasers and countdown flows ahead of social or retail launch. 💬 Final Thought Holiday beauty campaigns aren’t just about what’s on the shelf, they’re about how value is communicated. The brands winning in 2025 are doing it through early, personalised, & value-led storytelling. 📧 With Optivo, beauty brands can turn browsers into subscribers & subscribers into buyers at exactly the right moment.