Trends in Electronics Technology

AI holds great potential for the semiconductor industry and will kick-start the next round of innovation for faster, cheaper and more energy-efficient computation – that was my message today at SPIE Advanced Lithography + Patterning. I discussed the potential and the challenges that AI holds for our industry.   The potential is clearly huge. AI is rapidly integrated into applications, and high-performance compute is expected to underpin growth towards $1 trillion of semiconductor sales by 2030. The challenges are around the computing needs of AI models and related energy consumption. The compute workload of training a leading AI model has increased 16x every 2 years in recent years – much faster than the increase in computing power delivered by Moore’s law, which is about 2x every 2 years. The energy needed to train a leading model has not grown so steeply but still rose 10x every 2 years. This computing need has been met by building supercomputers and massive data centers. If you extrapolate these trends, training a leading AI model would need the entire world-wide electricity supply in about 10 years. That’s clearly not realistic, so the trend has to break, by training algorithms becoming more efficient and by chips becoming more efficient. In other words, the needs of AI will stimulate immense innovation in chip design and manufacturing – and the potential value of AI to our society will put urgency and funding behind that drive. As a consequence, chip makers are pulling all levers to accelerate semiconductor scaling. This includes lithographic “2D” scaling: shrinking the dimensions of transistors to pack more into a square millimeter. It will also include “3D” integration, with innovations like backside power delivery, transistor designs like gate-all-around, as well as stacking chips in the package, where holistic lithography will play a critical role to deliver performance requirements. ASML will support these trends through a comprehensive, holistic lithography portfolio. Our 0.33 NA/0.55 NA EUV lithography systems allow chip makers to shrink dimensions at the lowest possible cost on their critical layers, while tightly matched and highly productive DUV systems will continue to reduce cost. More than ever, metrology and inspections tools – whose data is fed into lithography control solutions that keep the patterning process operating within tight specs to deliver the highest possible production yields – will be essential to deliver 2D scaling and 3D integration processes. 3D integration requires wafer-to-wafer bonding, and we have demonstrated the capability to map the stresses and distortions that bonding creates and to compensate for them, reducing overlay errors for post-bonding patterning by 10x or more.   It was a pleasure catching up with the industry’s lithography and patterning experts in San Jose. I’m excited to see our collective innovation power having a go at these challenges. Together, we will push technology forward.

China is electrifying its trucking fleet so fast that it’s now reshaping global diesel demand. This has not been widely covered by the mainstream media. Here's how quickly things have shifted: ➡️ 2020: Nearly every new truck in China was diesel ➡️ H1 2025: Battery-powered trucks reached 22% of new sales ➡️ Dec 2025: Battery-powered trucks hit 54%, achieving a majority share for the first time China's sales of "New Energy Vehicle" trucks in 2025 were almost triple the 2024 total – and the share is now expected to reach around 60% this year. And what's driving this shift? Economics. Rapidly falling battery prices mean electric trucks are now cheaper to own and operate than diesel or LNG alternatives – with each truck saving fleet operators around $165,000 over a 10-year operating life. Fleet operators are also increasingly adopting depot charging, opportunity charging and battery-swap networks – removing the last points of friction. This is a market-wide shift in the most energy-intensive road transport segment in the world’s largest vehicle market. And it matters: road freight accounts for around one third of global transport emissions. The impact on oil demand is already visible: ✅ China's electric trucks are already cutting oil demand by the equivalent of more than one million barrels a day. ✅ China's transport sector is forecast to use 40% less diesel in 2030 than in 2024. So why did analysts miss this? Most models assumed heavy trucks would be the last segment to electrify — but China moved faster on battery-swap infrastructure, ultra-cheap LFP batteries, and high-utilisation urban freight fleets. The economics flipped earlier than the forecasts assumed. The result: diesel demand in China – the world’s second-largest consumer – could fall much faster than many predicted. And that's not all. Already the world's largest exporter of passenger cars, China is now eyeing the global electric truck market. Adoption is growing in the Middle East and Latin America and BYD is building a new electric truck and bus factory in Hungary. This is just the beginning.

GPS Just Became Optional for Military Navigation. Quantum Sensors Are Why. SandboxAQ flies magnetic navigation on C-17s. Centimeter accuracy without satellites. Q-CTRL's sensors beat classical systems by 111x in flight tests. Not in labs. Actual aircraft. When China jams GPS tomorrow, these systems keep working. The physics is simple. Earth's magnetic field becomes your navigation chart. Quantum magnetometers detect submarine signatures at ranges that change naval warfare. Gravity variations expose underground bunkers. Three companies own this space. • SandboxAQ: Spun from Alphabet, MagNav for GPS-denied ops • Q-CTRL: $24.4M DARPA contracts, ruggedized for subs • Infleqtion: Cold atoms, femtometer precision gravimeters Traditional INS drifts meters per hour. Quantum INS doesn't drift. Period. Boeing integrated quantum-classical hybrid nav in 2025 tests. Sub-atomic precision achieved. Australian Navy trials validated submarine detection. UK Dstl hunts subs with quantum magnetometers. Quantum computing debates 2035 timelines. Quantum sensing deploys in 2-5 years. Miniaturization remains the challenge. SWaP reduction for drone integration needs solutions. But DARPA's RoQS program funds it. Army Research Lab develops Rydberg RF sensors. Money flows to near-term capability. Applications today. • Navigate polar regions where GPS fails • Detect underground facilities via gravity • Hunt submarines at extended ranges • Operate beyond satellite coverage Russia spoofs GPS over Ukraine daily. China jams signals in contested waters. Traditional navigation fails. Quantum navigation doesn't care. While everyone waits for quantum computers, quantum sensors deliver battlefield advantage now.

The energy transition is more than just a shift to renewables; it’s a total reinvention of our infrastructure, with electricity distribution networks acting as vital enablers of this change. Electricity is the best vector for decarbonization, and the world increasingly relies on it. Effectively these networks expand, must be capable of supporting renewable integration, but they must also be optimized for digital innovation, efficiency, and sustainability. This is where Electricity 4.0 plays a transformational role. The concept of Electricity 4.0 assumes massive electrification in tandem with deployment of digital intelligence within electric systems, turning traditional distribution networks into smart, responsive systems. These networks don’t just distribute power—they actively manage, monitor, and adapt in real-time, creating an energy ecosystem that is reliable, efficient, and more sustainable. One compelling example of making progress is the adoption of SF6-free medium-voltage (MV) switchgear. In our case it’s AirSeT. Let me recap how it fits into the bigger picture: 1. Integrating renewables at scale: Distributed renewables need robust networks to balance power flows dynamically and manage fluctuating demands. AirSeT is equipped with CompoDrive, 10x stronger than its predecessor to accommodate massively increasing switching requirements. 2. Optimizing energy management through digitalization: By embedding IoT and AI, we can achieve real-time monitoring and predictive maintenance, minimizing losses and boosting efficiency. Switchgear needs powerful digital capabilities to gather intelligence from the field. 3. Sustainable infrastructure with sustainable MV solutions: SF6-free minimizes CO2e footprints while ensuring network reliability. Each kilogram avoided means 24,300 kg of CO2e less in the networks. Operational life extended by up to 30% and no toxic byproducts of breaking support circularity. The journey toward a low-carbon economy demands more than just clean power generation; it requires revolutionary approaches to how energy is managed, distributed, and optimized. Electric distribution networks aren’t just supporting the transition—they’re driving it, like Drakenstein Municipality in South Africa. Let’s continue to lead this transformation, ensuring every step forward brings us closer to a resilient, sustainable energy future. Read this eBook to discover how SF6-free and digital solutions enable decarbonization and efficiency: https://lnkd.in/dGThND2Q #SF6Free #LifeIsOn #AirSeT

As batteries are deployed at scale in electric vehicles (EVs), their costs fall, enabling ever-wider deployment and further cost declines,. The relationship between clean power and transport electrification is a powerful example of that the energy transition is not a series of isolated changes in different sectors. Instead, it is an interconnected system, where progress in one area can catalyse shifts elsewhere. Shared technologies can create reinforcing feedbacks that accelerate decarbonisation across multiple fronts, generating cross-sector synergies. In our new article for Carbon Brief we argue that it is because the global shift to clean energy is far more than a simple technological transition. It’s a complex, dynamic process—full of feedback loops and non-linear change—that can either accelerate or impede progress. 🔄 We highlight how reinforcing feedback loops have driven exponential growth in solar and wind, and why early-stage policy support is so crucial for emerging clean technologies. ⚡ But we also discuss the “renewable cannibalisation” effect, where the very success of renewables can undermine their own economics—unless market design and flexibility solutions keep pace. 🔗 Most importantly, we show how cross-sector synergies—like the interplay between clean power, batteries, and electrification—can unlock even faster decarbonisation if policymakers take a systems-thinking approach. Our key message: Climate policy needs to move beyond linear models and embrace the complexity of real-world transitions. Recognising and harnessing feedback loops can help governments design smarter, more effective interventions. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/eB2CV9-E The article was based on a briefing I shared yesterday that was led by Simon Sharpe at S-Curve Economics CIC, Max Collett 柯墨, Pete Barbrook-Johnson, me at Environmental Change Institute (ECI), University of Oxford & Oriel College, Oxford & the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) and Michael Grubb at UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources.

𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 1: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐰𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐒𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐁𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐝𝐠𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐥𝐨𝐮𝐝 In 2024, the spotlight is on smart connectivity, a critical evolution that promises to redefine IoT by enhancing the synergy between device intelligence at the Edge and cloud capabilities. This transformative approach is set to impact organizations across industries by enabling more efficient, secure, and intelligent operations. 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐨𝐧 𝐎𝐫𝐠𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬: 📌𝐄𝐧𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐝 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧-𝐌𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠: With the acceleration of Edge processing, organizations can leverage local data analysis for quicker, more autonomous decision-making. This reduces dependency on cloud processing, thereby minimizing latency and enhancing real-time responses. 📌𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐲: Full-stack integration means that IoT devices will be more self-reliant, requiring less intervention and manual oversight. This leads to streamlined operations, lower operational costs, and reduced potential for human error. 📌𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞: The emphasis on secure, resilient connectivity ensures that data is protected from endpoint to cloud. This is crucial for organizations dealing with sensitive information, helping them meet regulatory compliance standards like GDPR and HIPAA more effectively. 📌𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞 𝐎𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: Intelligent connectivity allows devices to select the most cost-effective and efficient network paths. This adaptability can lead to significant savings on data transmission costs and optimize network resource usage. 📢 𝐌𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬 The prediction of smart connectivity as a cornerstone for IoT in 2024 resonates with a growing trend toward distributed intelligence and the need for more agile, secure, and efficient operations. From an organizational perspective, this shift is not merely technological but strategic, offering a pathway to transform how businesses interact with digital infrastructure, manage data, and deliver services. 📌𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐜 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞: Organizations that embrace smart connectivity will gain a competitive edge through enhanced operational agility, improved customer experiences, and a stronger posture on security and compliance. 📌𝐈𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐎𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬: This new paradigm opens doors for innovative applications and services that leverage Edge intelligence, from advanced predictive maintenance to dynamic supply chain management and beyond. 📌𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬: While the benefits are clear, organizations must also navigate the complexities of integrating this technology. This includes ensuring interoperability across diverse devices and platforms, managing the increased complexity of decentralized data processing, and addressing the security vulnerabilities that come with expanded IoT ecosystems.

NEW 🔔⏰ While all eyes are on ‘turmoil’ on #oilgas markets, there is another part of energy system developing very fast. The new IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2026 – just released - is a 388 pages walk through the supply chains of fast growing energy technologies like electric cars, batteries and renewable power equipment. Here some few messages i found particularly relevant 1/ Few years back, the IEA Investment Report certified how the investment in electricity sector had overtook for the first time the amount going into fossil fuels. Now, the Age of Electricity gets a further confirmation also from the market size of those technologies, exceeding the $1 trillion value. 2/ Whatever scenario you consider – more traditional or a fast-changing path – the direction of journey does not change: the global marker for these key energy technologies rises – and rises fast 3/ Policies always matter, but a key driver has become the cost competitiveness of those technologies. The renewables and batteries are clear examples with their cost having plunged dramatically over the last years 4/ if the world is more and more fragmented, the global trade for energy technologies remains in good health, with China at the center of it as it accounts for the majority of clean energy technology manufacturing 5/ at the same time the problem of concentration is something quite visible. China’s manufacturing accounts for 60-85% of production capacity for key supply chains, and over 95% for some production steps. It is not a detail… 6/ it is the age of electricity – but not everything is about electricity… the report looks carefully at opportunities for low-emission fuels, including biofuels and others like sustainable aviation fuels. The #energy technology world keeps evolving at fast pace and its relevance for competitiveness, security and geopolitics is bigger than ever. At the same time, the number (and relevance) of uncertainties keeps increasing on multiple fronts. Chapeau to the IEA technology team 👏👏👏 for such compelling work in a rapidly changing context. It is fully available on IEA website

The next generation of semiconductors won’t just power our devices, they’ll disappear when the job is done. Some of the most fascinating work I’ve seen lately is emerging from Asia, where researchers are exploring new ways to make electronics both high-performing and biodegradable. Think of materials that dissolve safely once their job is done. Here are a few breakthroughs that caught my attention: 🔌 Electronics that vanish at end-of-life, on purpose 📈 Etching methods that are carbon-neutral and growing fast, especially in Asia-Pacific markets 🌿 Sustainable substrates like silk and cellulose are replacing plastics 🧩 Interconnects made from zinc, iron, and magnesium, some designed to dissolve in the body safely This isn’t just about tweaking materials, it’s a complete reimagining of how we design for impact and circularity. And it’s a signal that sustainability is becoming core to innovation, not just a side note. 🧠 Worth a read: http://bit.ly/3JT4Sq8 Let me know what other sustainability signals you’re seeing in the R&D space.