Defense Innovation Methods

🇺🇦 Innovation Under Fire What’s happening off the coast of Ukraine should make every Western defence planner sit up. Ukrainian naval drones didn’t just adapt to a threat, they actually changed the behaviour of the enemy. Russian helicopters were once a critical counter to Ukraine’s maritime drones. They hunted them, disrupted them and controlled the battlespace. So Ukraine did something deceptively simple and strategically profound. They armed the drones with surface-to-air missiles. Result? Russian helicopters now avoid them entirely, recognising they’ve become easy targets. The so what? This isn’t about a new platform. It’s about innovation velocity beating legacy doctrine. Why this matters for future military strategy 👉 Drones are no longer disposable. These naval drones aren’t just ISR or kamikaze assets, they are multi-role, survivable, decision-shaping systems. Once a drone can credibly threaten manned aircraft, the cost-exchange ratio collapses in its favour. 👉 Behavioural deterrence beats attrition. Ukraine didn’t need to destroy every helicopter. It only needed to change Russian risk calculus. The real win wasn’t the kill, it was forcing the enemy to withdraw capability. 👉 Cross-domain convergence is the future. Sea platforms threatening air assets. Small systems dictating big-platform behaviour. This is the erosion of traditional domain boundaries, and it’s accelerating. 👉 Speed outperforms scale. This wasn’t a decade-long procurement programme. It was rapid iteration at the tactical edge, driven by operators, not committees. The side that learns fastest now wins first. 👉 Western militaries should be uncomfortable. If low-cost drones can deny helicopters today, what denies, • Amphibious landings tomorrow? • Carrier air operations next? • Littoral resupply routes in NATO theatres? Ukraine is stress-testing the future of warfare in real time, while much of the West is still debating requirements documents. This is innovation born of necessity, but it’s also a warning. The next military advantage won’t come from the biggest platforms or the longest programmes. It will come from, Fast thinkers, Fast builders and Fast learners. Those who ignore that lesson will find their helicopters and doctrines grounded. As ever, this isn’t doctrine, It’s a debate, and debate is how innovation starts. https://lnkd.in/eDBSstQ6 #Gwilly #DefenceInnovation #FutureWarfare #Drones #MilitaryStrategy #Ukraine #InnovationUnderFire

The most interesting element of Israel’s overnight attack on Iran wasn’t the fire and fury – it was the stealth drone operation that took place just before it. According to a report in The War Zone, Israeli operatives covertly slipped into Iran ahead of Operation Rising Lion and used small drones to disable multiple surface-to-air missile and radar sites deep inside the country, paving the way for Israeli Air Force fighter jets to strike strategic targets like nuclear sites and military installations without having to worry about enemy air defenses. Sound familiar? It echoes Operation Spider’s Web, Ukraine’s long-planned incursion into Russian territory where FPV drones were concealed in wooden cabins on trucks, smuggled across the border, and then deployed to take out Moscow’s strategic bomber fleets parked at airbases across the country. We’re seeing a new playbook for drone warfare emerge. Covertly place low-cost drones behind enemy lines. Preemptively neutralize air defense or other critical military assets. Launch high-value follow-on strikes with minimal risk. Repeat, over and over and over. These operations are redefining battlefield access and timing, confirming that the traditional layers of air defense once seen as all but invulnerable can be surmounted by relatively inexpensive drones and shrewd planning. But this isn’t just a new tactic – it’s a new framework for projecting power. What we’re seeing is a shift away from traditional assumptions about time, distance, and defense-in-depth. When drones can be deployed from inside the wire, from hiding spots on civilian trucks or safehouses, the old perimeter no longer exists. That has massive implications for how we design bases, plan campaigns, and build countermeasures. It means logistics networks must now assume they’re battlefield terrain. It means strategic infrastructure – power plants, command centers, supply depots – can be targeted without warning. And it means that long-range strike is no longer the exclusive domain of nation-states with advanced bombers or missile programs. A disciplined team with off-the-shelf tech and a good plan can now reshape the air defense equation. Defense strategy needs to catch up to this new reality: - Anticipating and preparing for deep interior strikes by non-state actors and state proxies - Building systems that defend in 360 degrees with the versatility to adapt to new challenges as they emerge - Prioritizing automation, machine vision, and counter-drone precision over legacy air defense layers The lesson from Israel and Ukraine isn’t just that drones are evolving, but that operational art is evolving with them. The countries that treat this seriously are rewriting the rules in real time – and the ones that don’t are setting themselves up for disaster.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable innovation in naval warfare by developing a powerful fleet of uncrewed surface vessels (USVs). These explosive-equipped drones have dealt substantial damage to the Russian Navy, forcing much of the fleet to remain inactive in port. This strategy has enabled Ukraine to achieve a level of sea denial that was once unimaginable. A key factor in Ukraine's success has been the deployment of uncrewed platforms. These #drones are smaller, more cost-effective, and can be risked in operations where manned vessels would be too vulnerable. Their ability to operate remotely through real-time satellite communications—primarily provided by Starlink—ensures rapid response and adaptability in fast-changing combat environments. Although some semi-submerged and underwater versions of these drones have also been developed, current designs remain relatively small, providing flexibility and efficiency. This shift towards uncrewed technology has revolutionized naval #warfare, and while future advancements may reduce the need for human oversight, Ukraine's innovative use of USVs is already reshaping the battlefield. To learn more about the USVs used by the Russians and Ukrainians in detail, read here: https://lnkd.in/dKcDeZwz

Pentagon rewrites acquisition playbook. November 4 memo transforms how defense buys capability. LaPlante's draft blueprint accelerates everything. Duffey now leads the charge. Portfolio Acquisition Executives get $500M direct authority. No more programs crawling through 47 approval layers while China fields hypersonics in 18 months. The acceleration mechanics. PAEs = Mission-focused portfolios • Long-Range Strike, Autonomous Systems, Air Defense • 3-star civilian leads with delegated spending power • Cross-functional teams: PMs + engineers + operators • Pilots launch Q2 2026, full deployment by 2028 Commercial-First mandate changes the game • 70% COTS requirement for non-classified components   • 6-12 month sprint cycles replace 5-year milestones • Fixed-price contracts reward speed over specs • Mountain View integration hubs connect DoD to Valley velocity Two-to-Production ensures resilience • Dual suppliers mandatory before LRIP • Digital twins enable virtual qualification • CHIPS Act trusted foundries get subsidies • Supply chain redundancy becomes non-negotiable Accredited Test Pipelines enable continuous deployment • Pre-certified modular labs for incremental updates • AI anomaly detection replaces months of manual validation • 10 pipelines by end-2026, scaling to 50 by 2030 • DevSecOps finally moves from theory to practice The GAO warns of 15-20% cost inflation due to redundant qualifications. Senators raise workforce transition concerns. Industry adapts business models for compressed timelines and commercial integration. The strategic reality cuts deeper. When PAEs control budgets and commercial tech sets the pace, acquisition velocity becomes a competitive advantage. Traditional and non-traditional contractors alike face the same imperative. Adapt or lose relevance. Is your acquisition strategy ready for 50% timeline compression? Supply chain mapped for dual-source mandates? Teams prepared for 6-month sprint cycles? When procurement speed determines strategic outcomes, velocity becomes victory.

Thinking of entering defence? Good. But read this first, or get crushed. You’re not building a startup. You’re entering a war zone with Excel sheets instead of bullets. And here’s the first landmine: Defence doesn’t care about you. Not until you matter. And by the time you matter, it might be too late. So here’s your brutal, field-tested playbook 👇 🔻 1. Run a Dual-Use Strategy or Die Trying Don’t “pivot into defence.” Don’t “add military as a target customer.” Build something with teeth in both markets — or you’ll starve while waiting 24 months for a MoD reply. Dual-use = survival. Omni-use = dominance. 🔻 2. Your Actual Competitor? Paper. You're not fighting primes. You're fighting outdated workflows, 94-page requirement PDFs, and evaluation committees who’ve never used the tech. You’re not selling innovation. You’re selling the idea that innovation should exist. 🔻 3. Never Ask for Feedback — Ask for Budget Lines Everyone will “love” what you’re doing. They’ll invite you to panels, workshops, incubators. None of that pays your team. Ask: “Which budget pays for this in Q4?” If they can’t answer, walk. 🔻 4. Find a Uniformed Insider, or You’re Screwed No matter how good your pitch is, you need a believer inside the system. Someone who speaks procurement and can say, “This solves my mission.” Without that: enjoy limbo. 🔻 5. If You’re Not Testable, You’re Not Real Defence doesn’t buy PowerPoints. You need a testable MVP fast. No test = no traction. No traction = no procurement route. No route = you're just theatre. 🔻 6. The First Deal Will Break You It’s slow. It’s painful. It’ll take months, maybe years. But once you break the wall once, you become “pre-approved.” Then the real business begins. 🔻 7. Ignore All of This If You're Building Slideware This advice is only for builders. For founders ready to live in uncertainty, raise from niche VCs, and get 50 no’s before one test flight. If you're not all-in: stay in SaaS. This is the most misunderstood opportunity of our time. Europe is waking up. The U.S. is doubling down. And the next industrial revolution will wear camouflage. Startups who learn the terrain will dominate. Speed. Testability. Dual-use. Insider access. That’s your survival kit. Use it. #DefenceStartups #DualUse #InnovationInDefence #OmniUse #MilitaryTech #InsiderIntel #BoldMovesOnly #WakeUpEurope

Reflecting on the #SommetActionIA, it's clear that Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing military operations and presenting both opportunities and challenges for #NATO. Accelerating the OODA Loop: AI significantly accelerates our Observe, Orient, Decide, Act (OODA) loop, enabling us to gain a crucial advantage by operating inside our adversaries' decision cycles. AI can condense tasks that typically take a day into an hour, leading to faster and more informed decisions. Data as the New Gold: In the age of AI, data is paramount. AI's power lies in its ability to process and leverage vast amounts of data. Mastering data is therefore essential for maintaining a competitive edge. The "fog of data" requires careful evaluation of data reliability. NATO Data Interoperability: For NATO, data interoperability is critical. Our ability to share data and create common data standards is crucial for effective collaboration and leveraging AI's full potential. Establishing data architectures with hyperscalers and on-premise solutions, and defining data standards for sharing is needed. AI and Mass Robotics: AI is the mandatory step toward the integration of mass robotics in military operations. The rise of drone swarms necessitates AI for mission design and execution, reducing the need for human operators. Divesting from expensive legacy systems to invest in low-end, scalable, autonomous solutions is needed. Dual-Use Technology: AI is a dual-use technology, offering substantial benefits to both the military and the private sector. Adapting reliable civilian AI applications for military use presents a significant opportunity. This "redualization" of the defense sector sees tech companies creating products applicable to both civilian and military domains. The integration of AI in the military field is not limited to a simple question of technology; it requires a profound transformation of mentalities and practices within the armed forces. To fully exploit the potential of AI, it is essential to recognize that the adoption of this technology primarily involves a change in behavior at all levels. Key points that I believe should be considered to successfully achieve this transition: Adoption > Innovation: AI integration requires a fundamental change in behavior at all levels. We need to reassess expectations, incentives and leadership approaches. Evolved Missions: AI-based solutions, such as unmanned systems, require us to adopt new defense strategies and foster understanding. Cognitive Advantage: We must prepare for cognitive warfare by recognizing how AI influences perceptions and decision-making. Resilience and Sovereignty: It is imperative to balance the benefits of AI with data sovereignty and operational resilience. Adopt new sovereignty tools. Leadership MUST lead by example: Digital transformation requires leaders to champion change and invest in AI training for all military personnel. https://lnkd.in/eNePJ7ts

Reality Check As a founder and former warfighter, it’s painful to watch what's happening in defense tech. This isn’t a game like it is in the commercial sector; young men and women are the ones who pay the ultimate price for these missteps. ....................................................................TLDR........................................................................... Is it just me or did we set out to fix what the primes got wrong: slow delivery, inflated contracts, and tech that doesn’t work where it matters. But now, a lot of the venture-backed “defense unicorns” are falling into the same traps, just with slicker branding and a faster burn rate. Let’s be honest: 🔹 Anduril — Traction driven mainly by M&A. But M&A isn’t innovation. Failures in Ukraine and Project Convergence raise genuine concerns about operational readiness. Just named as the go-to edge hardware provider by Palantir—unsurprisingly, both come from the same investor pool. 🔹 Epirus — Recent down round. Constant leadership changes. Difficult to build end-user trust when the internal story is constantly shifting. Limited information on product traction… 🔹 Shield AI — One of the most mission-driven teams out there. But struggling under the weight of trying to meet software-style VC expectations in one of the hardest, longest-cycle domains. 🔹 Rebellion Defense — Strong vision and DIU roots. But disconnected from the user community. Ultimately, hasn't found product-market fit and has shrunk rapidly. 🔹 Palantir — Despite the narrative, their “AI platform” is mostly just ATO'd legacy infrastructure. There is very little real innovation, and now they’re acting as a barrier to startups, rather than a bridge. When your platform becomes the system of record, you control the gate. That slows the ecosystem down, not up. 💬 The common thread? The capital isn’t always going where it needs to. And the only people that really hurts… are the warfighters and end-users. This isn’t about bashing startups. The talent is real. The intent is genuine. However, we’re witnessing a new kind of gatekeeping emerge—and it’s coming from the same investors and vendors who claim they’re here to “disrupt.” If we’re serious about building the future of defense, we need: ✅ Founders who know the mission ✅ Investors who understand the mission ✅ Teams that build with the warfighter, not around them ✅ And platforms that enable innovation, not own the stack No more Primes 2.0, we need 20+ Neo-Primes, not just adding two new ones No more innovation theater. Defense innovation isn't broken because of a lack of good ideas. It's broken because capital, leadership, and incentives are misaligned with the needs of the warfighter. We need to do better — because the warfighter deserves better. Curious to hear from others in the defense space: -Investors -Warfighters -Industry -Startups

AMCA programme has reached a critical juncture with Tata Advanced Systems, Larsen & Toubro and Bharat Forge shortlisted to develop the nation's 5th gen stealth fighter while HAL has been left out of contention. This represents a fundamental transformation in India's defense industrial strategy. Unlike traditional defense procurement where HAL dominated as the sole manufacturer, this competition marks India's first major fighter jet program genuinely open to private sector. The selection criteria emphasised technical expertise, manufacturing, financial strength, and order book capacity not legacy relationships.This competitive approach signals that India is prioritising delivery capability, innovation over incumbency. The Rs 15,000 crore prototype development contract, with eventual orders expected for 120+ aircraft, creates unprecedented opportunity for private sector companies to lead cutting-edge aerospace development alongside the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA). The AMCA program's R&D requirements will help India's MSME aerospace ecosystem in several ways including technology transfer & capability Building in stealth design, advanced materials, AI integration, sensor fusion etc. It requires specialised components that the winning consortium must source domestically. This creates downstream opportunities for MSMEs to develop niche competencies in composites, precision manufacturing, avionics and specialised coatings. With production targets of 120+ jets initially and significantly more advanced variants over decades, the program demands robust quality certified supplier networks. MSMEs that achieve aerospace-grade certifications for AMCA will gain credentials applicable to global aerospace markets. The program's advanced technology requirements unmanned teaming, long-range strike capabilities, AI driven systems necessitate R&D partnerships beyond tier-1 contractors. MSMEs with specialised capabilities in software, materials science and electronics can become critical innovation partners. Large scale fighter development creates demand for specialised engineering talent. Training programs and Centers of Excellence established for AMCA will build a skilled workforce that benefits the broader manufacturing ecosystem. HAL’s exclusion underscores a shift toward performance based accountability, signaling that delays and efficiency now carry consequences even for incumbents. It breaks HAL’s long standing monopoly, injecting private sector competition, innovation and global quality practices into India’s most critical fighter program. By distributing risk, AMCA avoids bottlenecks from HAL’s legacy workload while leveraging private players’ global partnerships for future competitiveness. The decision within the next three months will shape not just India's air power, but the trajectory of its defense industrial base for the next 50 years.

This year, U. S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) has been heavily focused on countering UAS attacks (cUAS). This should not come as a surprise, given our experience over the past 12 months: Iranian-backed militia groups have launched hundreds of one-way UAS attacks on US and partner forces in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis have launched hundreds of their own UAS into the Red Sea with devastating effect on maritime traffic. In January of this year, three of our team members were killed in a UAS attack on Tower 22. This threat is front-of-mind for everyone at the Command. For that reason, it has never been more important to drive experimentation with cUAS capabilities. Just last week CENTCOM's Army component executed RED SANDS, a series focused on testing cUAS defeat systems with realistic heat/sand/wind/humidity/users to ensure those systems work as they should. This week, we're executing DESERT GUARDIAN, a series focused on forcing different systems to integrate and function together. Over the coming year, we'll execute more RED SANDS and DESERT GUARDIAN events to peek pushing these capabilities forward. Every day this week, I'll be sharing more about how we think about the cUAS problem set and the lessons we're learning from DESERT GUARDIAN. We'll kick off the week with the graphic below, explaining how we think about the different parts of the cUAS problem, and each day I'll do a deep-dive into each piece. DETECT: We must be able to detect potentially threatening objects in our airspace This challenge can become increasingly complex depending on the size, speed, distance, and altitude of the object. FUSED DETECT: No one sensor will ever give us 100% coverage - we need "layered defense" with multiple mixed sensors. That means our sensors must share their data into a single third-party interface. CHARACTERIZE: We must be able to determine whether an object is "hostile" or "non-hostile" in our airspace. Additionally, we need high quality locational data ("fire control quality") to help us shoot it down. DEFEAT: We must be able to neutralize threats in our airspace (with kinetic or non-kinetic means). This challenge can look different depending on whether we are defending a fixed location or mobile team, or what type of system we are trying to defeat. FUSED DEFEAT: As with sensors, no one shooter will ever give us 100% defeat - we require "layered defense" with multiple shooter, which need to be integrated into a common command and control interface so we don't overwhelm users. As always, we do not experiment alone - none of this would be possible without the partnership of DoD Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office, 10th Mountain Division, United States Army, IWSTD, Army Futures Command, and PEO MS. We also have nearly a dozen industry partners who have been trailblazing this open architecture path with us, and we're excited to share more about those teams later in the week. #innovation #technology #cuas #centcom #desertguardian

I’m thrilled to share that our paper, "Opening Up Military Innovation: Causal Effects of Reforms to US Defense Research," co-authored with the brilliant Sabrina Howell, John Van Reenen, and Jun Wong, has been officially published in the Journal of Political Economy. For decades, the conventional wisdom in government R&D procurement has been for the government to tightly specify the products it wants. Think of the Henry Ford quote: "If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses". Our research explores what happens when the government stops asking for "faster horses" and instead opens the door for industry to propose the "automobile." We studied the US Air Force Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) program (e.g., R&D for small businesses) where two approaches were run simultaneously: a conventional model with highly specific topics and a new open model where firms could propose any technology they thought the Air Force might need. Using a sharp regression discontinuity design, we uncovered striking causal effects for companies that won an open topic award. These companies saw significant, tangible economic benefits: * 📈 A 12 point increase in the probability of receiving subsequent Venture Capital investment * 🚀 An 11.4 point increase in winning larger, non-SBIR Department of Defense (DoD) contracts, a key measure of military adoption and scale. * 💡 An 8.9 point increase in securing a patent and a 7 point increase in securing a high-originality patent, signaling novel innovation. In stark contrast, winning a conventional award had no positive effects on commercial innovation or military adoption. In fact, its main effect was increasing the chances of winning another small SBIR award, a form of program "lock-in”. Our research demonstrates that the open approach doesn't just work by attracting different firms; the open incentive structure itself drives greater innovation. It provides an avenue for firms to identify technological opportunities the government isn't yet aware of, creating an entry point to much larger public sector contracts and private investment. This work has powerful implications for how we procure innovation across the public sector. I'm incredibly proud of what our team accomplished and hope it contributes to building a more dynamic and innovative industrial base. You can read the full paper here: [https://lnkd.in/eV7uEqeH] #Innovation #Economics #NationalSecurity #DefenseTech #SBIR #VentureCapital #DualUse #AirForce #JPE