Climate Change Risks

A study published today changes the risk calculus for every long-horizon decision being made across the Atlantic world. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the ocean current that regulates climate across Europe, Africa, and the Americas, now has a greater than 50% probability of collapse, according to the new research which uses real-world ocean observations to validate climate models. ... and the impacts are: 🌊 50–100cm of additional sea-level rise along Atlantic coastlines. ❄️ Extreme cold winters and severe summer droughts across Western Europe . 🌧️ Collapse of the tropical rainfall belt across Sub-Saharan Africa and South America ⏱️ The tipping point — the moment collapse becomes irreversible — could arrive by mid-century. That is within current infrastructure cycles, bond maturities, and institutional investment horizons. The models producing these projections do not yet include Greenland meltwater, meaning the real risk is likely still higher. The WMO State of the Global Climate 2025 confirmed the trends feeding this: record ocean heat for the ninth consecutive year, accelerating ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica, and the highest Earth energy imbalance ever recorded. The physical system is moving faster than our risk frameworks. Any climate risk assessment that treats AMOC collapse as low-probability is now out of date and should be revised. Any coastal infrastructure investment not pricing in accelerated sea-level rise is built on obsolete assumptions. Any food and agricultural security strategy for Europe, Africa, or South America that ignores potential circulation collapse is incomplete. What is your organisation's AMOC scenario? Source: Portmann et al., Science Advances, April 15 2026 https://lnkd.in/e4HRQM6X

Climate change is not gender neutral — it amplifies existing inequalities. Women, especially in vulnerable communities, face disproportionate risks due to limited access to land, finance, and decision making power. They are often the first to lose livelihoods and the last to be heard in policy spaces. Yet, they remain frontline responders - managing households, securing water and food, and holding communities together during crises. What’s missing is not awareness, but inclusion with agency. Climate action frameworks still underrepresent women in leadership, fail to integrate their lived knowledge, and overlook structural barriers like land ownership, credit access, and safety in displacement. Without embedding gender responsive planning, financial inclusion, and localized capacity building, resilience efforts remain incomplete and inequitable. The intent must shift from viewing women as beneficiaries to recognizing them as leaders of climate resilience. Investing in their skills, ensuring access to resources, and placing them at the center of climate governance is not just equitable — it is effective. Real climate solutions will emerge when policies, markets, and communities align to empower women as decision makers, innovators, and change agents. #KYA_LAGTA_HAI #Resilience #ClimateAction #GenderEquality #Climatejustice #PolicyMatters #InclusiveGrowth #Sustainability #SocialImpact #WomenLeadership #WomenEmpowerment

🔥 Climate risks are no longer abstract—they’re disrupting businesses, communities, and economies right now. The World Economic Forum’s 2024 report, "The Cost of Inaction: A CEO Guide to Navigating Climate Risk", delivers a sobering message: ignoring climate risks isn’t just irresponsible—it’s economically devastating. 🌡️ Key insights from the report: 💥 Climate-related disasters have caused $3.6 trillion in damages since 2000, exposing critical vulnerabilities in supply chains and infrastructure. 📉 Physical risks could put 5-25% of EBITDA at risk for some sectors by 2050 under a 3°C warming trajectory. 💸 Transition risks, like carbon pricing and changing regulations, could impact 50% of EBITDA in energy-intensive industries by 2030. 🌱 Every $1 invested in climate adaptation yields $2-$19 in avoided costs, while green markets are projected to grow from $5 trillion in 2024 to $14 trillion by 2030. 💡 My reflections: 🔄 Resilience isn’t enough anymore. Too often, we focus on simply "weathering the storm" of climate risk. But true leadership is about rebuilding something better—rethinking markets, redesigning business models, and creating solutions that lead entire industries forward. 🌍 Supply chain fragility is the Achilles’ heel of the global economy. A single extreme weather event can cascade across operations, grinding everything to a halt. Climate-resilient supply chains can’t just be about survival—they must be radically adaptive, decentralized, and built to thrive under disruption. 📊 Climate risk is fundamentally redefining the concept of value. Businesses stuck chasing quarterly earnings are missing the bigger picture. In a world of rising costs and irreversible climate impacts, long-term value will belong to those who embed sustainability, resilience, and equity into their strategies. The time for cautious, incremental steps has passed. How are we using this moment to transform the way we work, innovate, and lead? #ClimateAction #Sustainability #Resilience #Leadership #Innovation

When climate finance 💰 overlooks women, resilience becomes an unfinished equation. Because the real question isn’t how much money is available. It’s who gets to use it, and for what ⁉️ Climate resilience is built on more than field-level adaptation. It’s about how institutions design, deliver, and govern access to finance. That was a key message in the FAO report “Empowering Women in Egypt’s Livestock and Dairy Subsectors: A Gender-Transformative Approach to Climate Resilience and Economic Inclusion.” One of the strongest recommendations? 👉 Expand tailored financial services and credit for women in agriculture. Here’s why that matters ⤵️ Climate finance is often imagined in billions 🤑 global pledges, large-scale projects, and infrastructure funds. But resilience often starts with smaller, local decisions: 👉 a woman farmer 👩🌾 taking a loan to buy solar-powered cooling, 👉 a cooperative accessing microcredit to reduce waste, 👉 a dairy producer investing in drought-resistant feed. Yet only 2% of rural women in Egypt have access to agricultural credit. That’s not a funding gap. It’s a systems gap. When finance mechanisms overlook women’s realities, they weaken the very resilience they aim to build. And this isn’t unique to Egypt. As the Gender and Climate Finance report shows, global funds still struggle to translate gender commitments into measurable results with limited data, scarce dedicated funding for women-led initiatives, and uneven accountability for outcomes. Working across government, development, and academia, I see this gap often the space between frameworks and lived experience. Designing finance that actually reaches women, and trusts them as economic actors, is where real transformation begins. Because climate finance that includes women isn’t just fairer. It’s more effective. It builds stronger markets, communities, and systems of resilience. 💡 The strength of any climate system depends on who it’s built to serve. (The timeline below, from the Gender and Climate Finance report, tracks how far international climate funds have come in integrating gender and how far there’s still to go.) #climatefinance #womenempoerment #womeninagriculture #financialinclusion #sustainability #genderequality #developmentfinance #climateaction ODI Global Climate Vision Consulting

Honoured to see our op-ed, “Rights, justice, action for India’s women farmers,” in The Hindu for #International #Women’s #Day 2026, co-authored with Dr Soumya Swaminathan, Chairperson, M S Swaminathan Research Foundation and Elisabeth Faure, Representative and Country Director, World Food Programme in India. As farming in #India feminises, women farmers are feeding the nation but remain largely invisible in our laws, data and decision-making. When women have land, resources and a voice, they drive #climate-resilient, biodiversity-rich and #nutrition-sensitive #agriculture. ✨ Key actions we call for: 🌾 Recognise women as farmers – count them in official data, value their roles across the agri-food system, not just through land ownership. 📜 Secure land and tenure rights – implement equal inheritance, promote joint land titles, and make registration truly gender-responsive. 🤝 Strengthen women’s collectives – support self-help groups and producer organisations so women can access credit, inputs and markets with stronger bargaining power. 📊 Make women visible in policy – generate and use gender-disaggregated data to design programmes that actually reach women on the ground. 🌱 Align food systems with nutrition – use public procurement, kitchen gardens and women’s seed banks to promote diverse, nutritious crops. ⚙️ Invest in technology and services – ensure access to labour‑saving tools, climate-smart technologies and equitable extension services. Pradnya Paithankar shariqua yunus khan

By 2050, climate change may push 158 million more women and girls into poverty. While women handle 50% of global food production, only 15 countries include gender in agricultural climate planning. Despite often being hit the hardest by climate impacts, women and girls are powerful agents of change. From indigenous women protecting vital carbon sinks in the Amazon to female-led disaster committees reducing community vulnerability in flood-prone regions, to leaders and activists transforming international climate policy by championing gender-responsive approaches, their leadership drives effective solutions.    This #WorldEnvironmentDay, let's commit to gender-responsive climate action by centering women in policy development, directing climate financing to women-led programs and achieving gender parity in decision-making. Read more in my latest article:

Superb report published today from Green Futures Solutions (University of Exeter) on the inadequacy of current corporate and financial risk models in accommodating climate risks. At its most fundamental, I see the failure of these risk models as the core assumption that our systems of the future - whilst dynamic - will retain the same basic structures, functions and features as they do today. The assumption that our social, economic, and environmental reality will march onward into a flat, linear, tabula rasa which extends infinitely into the future. Tipping points science shows us that this isn't true. With increased temperatures and continued ecosystem degradation, tipping points will be reached, and system collapses will follow. And with system collapses come cascade failures, and often unforeseeable (and catastrophic) consequences. These consequences and radical uncertainties have to be - as far as they can be - factored into a new generation of risk governance approaches, fit for the future that lies before us. In the Ecologi | B Corp™ team, we're spending a lot of time thinking about risk management strategies as a core component of - and motivator for - corporate climate action. On our project assessments, we use sensitive risk models which take into account extreme climate scenarios and the significant uncertainty that comes with them - so that we can bake-in precaution, prevention and resilience from the start. Risk assessment and management has become a huge part of the work we do, both internally and for our clients. It's not lip service to say that climate risk management is business critical. Climate change impacts are arguably the most foundational, most all-encompassing of all risk factors affecting businesses today. And many current risk approaches in use by businesses and investors just aren't up to the task. Read the report 👉 https://lnkd.in/evipkQNX Good write-up in The Guardian 👉 https://lnkd.in/eXPeYjt5 📸 : John Towner via Unsplash

The latest State of the Cryosphere Report presents deeply concerning evidence of accelerating ice loss and its cascading impacts on global water resources and climate systems. Let me highlight several critical findings: We are witnessing unprecedented rates of cryosphere decline. Mountain glaciers globally set record losses in 2023-2024, with some regions like Sweden showing the highest melt in 80 years of observations. The Arctic is warming 3-4 times faster than the global average, while Antarctic sea ice reached historic lows for three consecutive years. These losses have severe implications for water security. Over 2 billion people depend on glacier-fed rivers for water, agriculture and hydropower. Many glacier-dependent regions have already passed "peak water" - the point where meltwater supply begins declining. The Hindu Kush Himalaya region saw record low snowfall this winter, threatening water supplies across South Asia. The global impacts extend far beyond mountain and polar regions. Sea level rise has doubled in the last 30 years. If current emissions continue, we risk triggering irreversible melt of parts of Antarctica and Greenland that could raise seas by multiple meters over centuries. Ocean circulation patterns are showing concerning changes, with potential disruption of critical systems like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. That means every fraction of a degree matters!! At 1.5°C warming, we can still preserve significant mountain glacier ice and limit sea level rise to more manageable levels. But current policies put us on track for over 2°C warming, which would lead to catastrophic and irreversible ice loss. We face a critical choice. Strong emissions reductions this decade could still prevent extreme loss and damage. But the window for action is closing rapidly. We must strengthen climate commitments in 2025 NDCs to credibly limit warming to 1.5°C through: - At least 40% emissions cuts by 2030 - Net zero emissions by 2050 - Increased support for adaptation in vulnerable regions The cryosphere cannot wait. We cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice. The decisions we make this decade will determine the future of Earth's ice and snow - and the billions who depend on them. Green Climate Fund, Asian Development Bank (ADB), #ClimateAction #ClimateEmergency, #GlobalWarming, #NetZero2050, #GlacierMelt #SeaLevelRise, #WaterSecurity, #PolarIce #ArcticAmplification

Exclusive: Report by risk experts says previous assessments ignored severe effects of climate crisis, reports sandra laville. https://lnkd.in/e6H3FX47 Global economic growth could plummet by 50% between 2070 and 2090 from the catastrophic shocks of climate change unless immediate action by political leaders is taken to decarbonise and restore nature, according to a new report. The stark warning from risk management experts the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) hugely increases the estimate of risk to global economic wellbeing from climate change impacts such as fires, flooding, droughts, temperature rises and nature breakdown. In a report with scientists at the University of Exeter, published on Thursday, the IFoA, which uses maths and statistics to analyse financial risk for businesses and governments, called for accelerated action by political leaders to tackle the climate crisis. Their report was published after data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) showed climate breakdown drove the annual global temperature above the internationally agreed 1.5C target for the first time in 2024, supercharging extreme weather. Without urgent action to accelerate decarbonisation, remove carbon from the atmosphere and repair nature, the plausible worst-case hit to global economies would be 50% in the two decades before 2090, the IFoA report said. At 3C or more of heating by 2050, there could be more than 4 billion deaths, significant sociopolitical fragmentation worldwide, failure of states (with resulting rapid, enduring, and significant loss of capital), and extinction events. HT Dagmar Droogsma

I didn’t leave tech. I scaled its impact. 🌍🌱 In Northeast Nigeria, climate change is not a future risk it is a present reality. Erratic rainfall. Reduced yields. Rising food insecurity. And as always, women are the most affected yet the least resourced. So we asked a different question: What happens when women are equipped not just to survive climate change, but to lead solutions? Through Future Prowess Islamic Foundation, we are building a women-led, climate-smart agriculture ecosystem where innovation, sustainability, and economic empowerment intersect. Our approach is practical, scalable, and rooted in context: • Climate-smart farming tailored to fragile and conflict-affected communities • Greenhouse systems enabling year-round production • Hydroponics redefining farming with minimal water and no soil dependency • Integration of digital tools for smarter, data-driven agriculture • Pathways for women to become agri-entrepreneurs and job creators This is more than an intervention. It is a systems response to climate vulnerability, gender inequality, and food insecurity. Because the future of food systems in Africa will not be built by technology alone it will be built by women empowered with the right technology. We are not just responding to climate change. We are redesigning resilience. This work is strengthened through the Green Rising initiative, by UNICEF Nigeria Generation Unlimited (GenU) and supported by Norwegian Refugee Council , the North East Development Commission (#NEDC). Now, the real question is: Who is ready to build and scale this with us? Celine Lafoucriere Bharat Kundra Zannah Bukar Mustapha (MFR) Deborah Sati Kesmen #ClimateAction #GreenRising #GenerationUnlimited #UNICEF #YPAT #FoodSystemsTransformation #WomenInAgriculture #GIZ #NRC #ClimateSmartAgriculture #GenderEquality #Sustainability #AfricaRising #GlobalDevelopment #FutureProwessFoundation