Catastrophic Risks to Climate Progress

A study published today changes the risk calculus for every long-horizon decision being made across the Atlantic world. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the ocean current that regulates climate across Europe, Africa, and the Americas, now has a greater than 50% probability of collapse, according to the new research which uses real-world ocean observations to validate climate models. ... and the impacts are: 🌊 50–100cm of additional sea-level rise along Atlantic coastlines. ❄️ Extreme cold winters and severe summer droughts across Western Europe . 🌧️ Collapse of the tropical rainfall belt across Sub-Saharan Africa and South America ⏱️ The tipping point — the moment collapse becomes irreversible — could arrive by mid-century. That is within current infrastructure cycles, bond maturities, and institutional investment horizons. The models producing these projections do not yet include Greenland meltwater, meaning the real risk is likely still higher. The WMO State of the Global Climate 2025 confirmed the trends feeding this: record ocean heat for the ninth consecutive year, accelerating ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica, and the highest Earth energy imbalance ever recorded. The physical system is moving faster than our risk frameworks. Any climate risk assessment that treats AMOC collapse as low-probability is now out of date and should be revised. Any coastal infrastructure investment not pricing in accelerated sea-level rise is built on obsolete assumptions. Any food and agricultural security strategy for Europe, Africa, or South America that ignores potential circulation collapse is incomplete. What is your organisation's AMOC scenario? Source: Portmann et al., Science Advances, April 15 2026 https://lnkd.in/e4HRQM6X

The latest State of the Cryosphere Report presents deeply concerning evidence of accelerating ice loss and its cascading impacts on global water resources and climate systems. Let me highlight several critical findings: We are witnessing unprecedented rates of cryosphere decline. Mountain glaciers globally set record losses in 2023-2024, with some regions like Sweden showing the highest melt in 80 years of observations. The Arctic is warming 3-4 times faster than the global average, while Antarctic sea ice reached historic lows for three consecutive years. These losses have severe implications for water security. Over 2 billion people depend on glacier-fed rivers for water, agriculture and hydropower. Many glacier-dependent regions have already passed "peak water" - the point where meltwater supply begins declining. The Hindu Kush Himalaya region saw record low snowfall this winter, threatening water supplies across South Asia. The global impacts extend far beyond mountain and polar regions. Sea level rise has doubled in the last 30 years. If current emissions continue, we risk triggering irreversible melt of parts of Antarctica and Greenland that could raise seas by multiple meters over centuries. Ocean circulation patterns are showing concerning changes, with potential disruption of critical systems like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. That means every fraction of a degree matters!! At 1.5°C warming, we can still preserve significant mountain glacier ice and limit sea level rise to more manageable levels. But current policies put us on track for over 2°C warming, which would lead to catastrophic and irreversible ice loss. We face a critical choice. Strong emissions reductions this decade could still prevent extreme loss and damage. But the window for action is closing rapidly. We must strengthen climate commitments in 2025 NDCs to credibly limit warming to 1.5°C through: - At least 40% emissions cuts by 2030 - Net zero emissions by 2050 - Increased support for adaptation in vulnerable regions The cryosphere cannot wait. We cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice. The decisions we make this decade will determine the future of Earth's ice and snow - and the billions who depend on them. Green Climate Fund, Asian Development Bank (ADB), #ClimateAction #ClimateEmergency, #GlobalWarming, #NetZero2050, #GlacierMelt #SeaLevelRise, #WaterSecurity, #PolarIce #ArcticAmplification

Exclusive: Report by risk experts says previous assessments ignored severe effects of climate crisis, reports sandra laville. https://lnkd.in/e6H3FX47 Global economic growth could plummet by 50% between 2070 and 2090 from the catastrophic shocks of climate change unless immediate action by political leaders is taken to decarbonise and restore nature, according to a new report. The stark warning from risk management experts the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) hugely increases the estimate of risk to global economic wellbeing from climate change impacts such as fires, flooding, droughts, temperature rises and nature breakdown. In a report with scientists at the University of Exeter, published on Thursday, the IFoA, which uses maths and statistics to analyse financial risk for businesses and governments, called for accelerated action by political leaders to tackle the climate crisis. Their report was published after data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) showed climate breakdown drove the annual global temperature above the internationally agreed 1.5C target for the first time in 2024, supercharging extreme weather. Without urgent action to accelerate decarbonisation, remove carbon from the atmosphere and repair nature, the plausible worst-case hit to global economies would be 50% in the two decades before 2090, the IFoA report said. At 3C or more of heating by 2050, there could be more than 4 billion deaths, significant sociopolitical fragmentation worldwide, failure of states (with resulting rapid, enduring, and significant loss of capital), and extinction events. HT Dagmar Droogsma

Climate Risk = Business Risk 🌍 Climate impacts are now core sustainability concerns. They are operational, financial, and strategic risks that increasingly shape business performance. Extreme weather events are damaging infrastructure more frequently, increasing repair costs, downtime, and capital expenditure requirements. Heatwaves are reducing workforce productivity, increasing health incidents, absenteeism, and operational inefficiencies, particularly in outdoor and labor-intensive sectors. Droughts are constraining access to critical resources such as water, raising input costs and disrupting production processes across multiple industries. Sea-level rise is placing coastal assets at risk, forcing companies to consider costly adaptation measures, relocation, or asset write-downs. Wildfires are disrupting transportation routes, logistics networks, and direct operations, amplifying supply-chain fragility. Greater climate volatility is complicating long-term planning, increasing uncertainty in forecasting, procurement, and investment decisions. Energy systems face rising exposure to extreme weather, threatening the reliability of electricity and fuel supply while driving higher operating costs. Assets exposed to climate risk are losing value, affecting balance sheets, financing conditions, and access to capital. Rising temperatures are driving higher cooling and heating demand, increasing energy consumption and operational expenses. Severe weather events are delaying transport and logistics, impacting delivery timelines, costs, and customer satisfaction. Climate-related health risks are disrupting business continuity through higher healthcare costs and reduced workforce availability. Insurance markets are responding through higher premiums, reduced coverage, and exclusions, shifting a growing share of climate risk directly onto companies.

The climate conversation has permanently changed. We’re no longer just talking about the energy transition, carbon emissions, or regulatory compliance. Today, the conversation centers on preventing catastrophic loss. Over the last two decades, climate investment has evolved through distinct phases: 1️⃣ CleanTech 1.0 (2005–2015): Powering the energy transition with renewables. 2️⃣ ClimateTech 2.0 (2015–2025): Reducing emissions and focusing on sustainability. 3️⃣ ClimateRisk 3.0 (Now): Protecting individuals, businesses, and infrastructure from economic and physical loss. Companies that ignore these risks face the very real possibility of eroded enterprise value. This is beyond physical impacts from hurricanes and wildfires—we’re talking about billions of dollars in lost revenue, asset devaluation, and unmanageable liabilities that could cripple companies for years to come: 💠 Energy Instability: Weather-related outages account for 80% of major U.S. power failures, with disasters costing $120B+ annually. On top of this, significant price spikes are leading to energy costs crushing margins for customers. 💠 Infrastructure Vulnerability: First order effects from asset damage will drive up insurance premiums and erode asset value—U.S. home values could drop $1.5T in 30 years. Second order effects from investor skepticism could increase the cost of capital—annual investment in infrastructure could reach $6.9T by 2030 for companies to stay aligned with shareholder goals. 💠 Enterprise Value at Risk: Third-order effects from asset damage may reshape entire markets. Prolonged vulnerability could spur industry consolidation & exits. Evolving labor demands, along with the risk of stranded assets, threaten to upend traditional valuations. Supply chain disruptions alone may cause $25T in net losses by mid-century. 💠 Insurance Fallout: Already, entire regions are being deemed “uninsurable,” with insurers like State Farm & Allstate exiting high-risk markets. In 2024 alone, climate losses exceeded $400B, with a growing coverage gap of >60% that was not covered by insurance. With a targeted focus on both Climate x Insurance, Equal Ventures has had a unique opportunity to build a deep thesis in this space—investing in companies that mitigate climate-driven operational risks, create financial resiliency in volatile markets, and redefine enterprise security by building strategies that secure both physical and digital assets. Companies like: Stand, Odyssey Energy Solutions, Texture, Shadow Power, David Energy 💡 Check out our latest blog post - link in the comments below. Rick Zullo Adam Chadroff Sophia Dodd

🔥 Climate risks are no longer abstract—they’re disrupting businesses, communities, and economies right now. The World Economic Forum’s 2024 report, "The Cost of Inaction: A CEO Guide to Navigating Climate Risk", delivers a sobering message: ignoring climate risks isn’t just irresponsible—it’s economically devastating. 🌡️ Key insights from the report: 💥 Climate-related disasters have caused $3.6 trillion in damages since 2000, exposing critical vulnerabilities in supply chains and infrastructure. 📉 Physical risks could put 5-25% of EBITDA at risk for some sectors by 2050 under a 3°C warming trajectory. 💸 Transition risks, like carbon pricing and changing regulations, could impact 50% of EBITDA in energy-intensive industries by 2030. 🌱 Every $1 invested in climate adaptation yields $2-$19 in avoided costs, while green markets are projected to grow from $5 trillion in 2024 to $14 trillion by 2030. 💡 My reflections: 🔄 Resilience isn’t enough anymore. Too often, we focus on simply "weathering the storm" of climate risk. But true leadership is about rebuilding something better—rethinking markets, redesigning business models, and creating solutions that lead entire industries forward. 🌍 Supply chain fragility is the Achilles’ heel of the global economy. A single extreme weather event can cascade across operations, grinding everything to a halt. Climate-resilient supply chains can’t just be about survival—they must be radically adaptive, decentralized, and built to thrive under disruption. 📊 Climate risk is fundamentally redefining the concept of value. Businesses stuck chasing quarterly earnings are missing the bigger picture. In a world of rising costs and irreversible climate impacts, long-term value will belong to those who embed sustainability, resilience, and equity into their strategies. The time for cautious, incremental steps has passed. How are we using this moment to transform the way we work, innovate, and lead? #ClimateAction #Sustainability #Resilience #Leadership #Innovation

Superb report published today from Green Futures Solutions (University of Exeter) on the inadequacy of current corporate and financial risk models in accommodating climate risks. At its most fundamental, I see the failure of these risk models as the core assumption that our systems of the future - whilst dynamic - will retain the same basic structures, functions and features as they do today. The assumption that our social, economic, and environmental reality will march onward into a flat, linear, tabula rasa which extends infinitely into the future. Tipping points science shows us that this isn't true. With increased temperatures and continued ecosystem degradation, tipping points will be reached, and system collapses will follow. And with system collapses come cascade failures, and often unforeseeable (and catastrophic) consequences. These consequences and radical uncertainties have to be - as far as they can be - factored into a new generation of risk governance approaches, fit for the future that lies before us. In the Ecologi | B Corp™ team, we're spending a lot of time thinking about risk management strategies as a core component of - and motivator for - corporate climate action. On our project assessments, we use sensitive risk models which take into account extreme climate scenarios and the significant uncertainty that comes with them - so that we can bake-in precaution, prevention and resilience from the start. Risk assessment and management has become a huge part of the work we do, both internally and for our clients. It's not lip service to say that climate risk management is business critical. Climate change impacts are arguably the most foundational, most all-encompassing of all risk factors affecting businesses today. And many current risk approaches in use by businesses and investors just aren't up to the task. Read the report 👉 https://lnkd.in/evipkQNX Good write-up in The Guardian 👉 https://lnkd.in/eXPeYjt5 📸 : John Towner via Unsplash

There are always two Davos.   There’s the headline Davos—the one you see online, where attention gravitates to geopolitics, AI, conflict, and macro shocks. And then there’s the working Davos: smaller rooms, closed sessions, and side conversations where executives are actually pressure-testing assumptions about risk, capital, and the next decade. Climate shows up very differently in each. If you’re watching from the outside, climate can look like it’s “off the table" compared to the peak-hype years of net-zero pledges and splashy announcements. But that’s mostly a false comparison. People are measuring today against the peak of the hype cycle, not against reality. Inside the working rooms, climate hasn’t disappeared. It’s been absorbed. One of the clearest signals is the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2026, released annually ahead of #WEF26 and based on insights from leaders and experts across business, government, academia, and civil society. The signal is consistent—and nuanced: 1️⃣ In the short term (next ~2 years): Geopolitical and economic risks dominate immediate attention. But climate hasn’t dropped out. Extreme weather still ranks fourth, ahead of many financial and technological risks. 2️⃣ In the long term (next ~10 years): Environmental risks again dominate the severity rankings. Extreme weather is the top global risk for the third consecutive year, alongside biodiversity loss and Earth-system change. For CSOs, this matters because it explains the disconnect. Climate no longer shows up as a standalone agenda item or a headline theme. Instead, it’s embedded inside conversations about: 🔹Insurance availability and pricing 🔹Capital durability and asset risk 🔹Supply-chain exposure 🔹Product- and market-level regulation   That doesn’t mean climate is losing relevance. It means it’s moving from visibility to inevitability. ➡️ Short-term risks are noisy and reactive. ➡️ Long-term environmental risk is stable, compounding, and persistent.   If you’re comparing today to the peak of the hype cycle, it can feel like a retreat. If you’re looking at where CEOs are actually planning for the next decade, it’s anything but.   That’s the difference between the two Davos. Stephen Dunbar-Johnson (The New York Times), Dominik Asam (SAP), Maud Thuaudet (Saint-Gobain) | Photos: NYT, WEF

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟴 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗵 𝗨𝘀 𝗔𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸𝘀 Unpriced risk destabilized the global economy in 2008. Today, unpriced climate risks are threatening to do the same—but this time, the damage may be permanent. During the 2008 collapse, municipal issuers were collateral damage. The problem began in mortgage-backed securities. When those collapsed, insurers backing municipal bonds froze. Interest rates for local governments spiked overnight. This time, the risks are direct. Local governments depend on stable property values for tax revenue. Chronic flooding and wildfires are already undermining those foundations in places like Florida. Yet today’s municipal bond market treats these risks as invisible. Credit rating agencies haven’t adjusted their scores. Investors see no penalty for bonds from climate-vulnerable areas. For now, borrowing remains cheap. Tom Doe of Municipal Market Analytics suggests using this window wisely. Governments should raise money now for adaptation projects, while markets remain blind to physical climate risks. Later, the cost of borrowing will rise sharply. When risks are finally priced, affected communities may already be unviable. This is the key difference from 2008. That crisis unraveled over months. Property markets eventually rebounded. But climate risks won’t fade. Floodwaters don’t recede on human time scales. For municipal leaders, the choice is clear. Act now—or pay much more to adapt later, when the consequences are irreversible.

The 2024 The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change is a wake-up call and the message couldn’t be clearer: Climate-related health threats are at record-breaking highs, putting both our health and planet at critical risk. Of the 15 indicators tracking these threats, 10 have hit unprecedented records due to delayed action.   The report highlights some troubling findings: - CO2 emissions from energy have reached an all-time high. - Heat-related deaths have surged by 167% since the 1990s. - Heat exposure has led to a record 512 billion potential labor hours lost. - Global income losses from climate impacts hit $835 billion, especially in agriculture. - Extreme weather events continue to intensify: 61% of global land saw a rise in extreme rainfall, and dengue transmission risk is up 46% since the 1950s.   Yet, despite this crisis, governments continue to heavily subsidize fossil fuels. In 2022 alone, 84% of countries poured $1.4 trillion into fossil fuels – overshadowing investments in sustainable, healthier futures.   However, amidst the challenges, there are rays of hope. Clean renewable energy now makes up a historic 10.5% of the global energy mix, and Health National Adaptation Plans (HNAPs) are advancing, with 50 countries assessing health vulnerabilities and 43 implementing plans to protect against climate impacts.   To truly combat this crisis, health must be at the centre of climate policy. It’s time to integrate health into national climate goals, re-direct fossil fuel subsidies toward sustainable health systems, and track progress with health-focused metrics.   This is more than an environmental challenge; it’s a public health emergency. We have the knowledge, tools, and frameworks to act, and The Rockefeller Foundation is committed to supporting a transition to a sustainable, resilient, and equitable future for all. Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eCpyps6S