Preparing for QDay in Post-Quantum Cryptography

🔐Word o’ the Day | Year | Decade: Crypto-agility, Baby! Yesterday morning, I did a fun fireside chat with Bethany Gadfield - Netzel at the FIA, Inc. Expo in Chicago. We talked about cyber resilience, artificial intelligence, Rubik’s cubes, and that thing called quantum! A question came up at the end, “What can firms actually do today to begin transitioning to post-quantum cryptography?” So thought I would take the opportunity to share my thoughts more broadly on this important, but not super well understood, topic: 1. Don’t wait. The clock for quantum-safe cryptography is already ticking. NIST released its first set of post-quantum standards last year (https://lnkd.in/esTm8uPw) and CISA put out a “Strategy for Migrating to Automated Post-Quantum Discovery and Inventory Tools” last year as part of its broader Post Quantum Cryptography (PQC) Initiative (https://lnkd.in/evpF4umv). h/t Garfield Jones, D.Eng.! 2. Inventory & prioritize. Map all cryptographic usage: what keys, certificates, protocols, and data streams exist today? Which assets hold long-lived value and are at risk of “harvest-now, decrypt-later”? Build a migration roadmap that prioritizes highest-risk systems (e.g., financial settlement platforms, inter-bank links, legacy encryption). 3. Establish crypto-agility. Ensure your architecture supports swapping algorithms, updating certificates, & layering classical + post-quantum primitives without a full system rebuild. This kind of flexibility is key for resilience. 4. Pilot and migrate. Use the new NIST-approved algorithms; experiment first on less time-sensitive systems, validate performance and interoperability, then scale to mission-critical applications. NIST’s IR 8547 report provides a framework for this transition. 5. Vendor & supply-chain alignment. Ask your vendors & service providers: “What’s your PQC transition plan? When will you support NIST-approved post-quantum algorithms? Are your update paths crypto-agile?” If the answer isn’t clear or (as a former boss of mine used to say) they look at you like a “pig at a wristwatch,” you’ve got a potentially serious third-party risk. 6. Board and Exec engagement. Position this not as an IT problem but a fiduciary risk and resilience imperative. The transition to quantum-safe cryptography is multi-year and multi-layered—waiting until it’s urgent means it will be too late.

🔑"𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐍𝐨𝐰, 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐋𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫" (𝐇𝐍𝐃𝐋) attacks intercept RSA-2048 or ECC-encrypted files, stockpiling them for future decryption. Once a powerful quantum computer comes online, they can unlock those archives in hours, exposing years’ worth of secrets. This silent threat targets everything from personal records to diplomatic communications. 🔐 📌 HOW CAN CYBERSECURITY LEADERS AND EXECUTIVES PREPARE? 🎯🎯𝐁𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐜 𝐀𝐠𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲: Ensure your systems can swiftly swap out cryptographic algorithms without extensive re-engineering. 𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨-𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐫𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐥𝐲 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐮𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐬 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐚𝐯𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞. Designing for agility now will let you plug in PQC algorithms (or other replacements) with minimal disruption later. 🎯𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐇𝐲𝐛𝐫𝐢𝐝 𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐩𝐡𝐲: Do not wait for the full PQC rollout. 👉 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐡𝐲𝐛𝐫𝐢𝐝 𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐍𝐎𝐖! Combine classic schemes like ECDH or RSA with a post-quantum algorithm (e.g. a dual key exchange using ECDH + Kyber). 🎯𝐌𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐜 𝐁𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐨𝐟 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐬 (𝐂𝐁𝐎𝐌): 👉𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐜𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐜 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐨𝐫𝐠𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: algorithms, key lengths, libraries, certificates, and protocols. A CBOM provides visibility into where vulnerable algorithms (like RSA/ECC) are used and helps prioritize what to fix. 🎯🎯𝐀𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐍𝐈𝐒𝐓’𝐬 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐦 𝐌𝐢𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐑𝐨𝐚𝐝𝐦𝐚𝐩: Follow expert guidance for a structured transition. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐠𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 (𝐂𝐈𝐒𝐀, 𝐍𝐒𝐀, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐍𝐈𝐒𝐓) 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐦-𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐫𝐨𝐚𝐝𝐦𝐚𝐩, starting with a thorough cryptographic inventory and risk assessment. Keep abreast of NIST’s PQC standards timeline and recommendations.  National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) #𝐇𝐍𝐃𝐋 Cyber Security Forum Initiative #CSFI 🗝️ Now is the time to future-proof your encryption! 🗝️ 𝑌𝑜𝑢 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑙𝑑𝑛'𝑡 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑦𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝑖𝑠 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡 𝑏𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑒 𝑖𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑟𝑦𝑝𝑡𝑒𝑑...

The biggest threat to your data isn’t happening tomorrow. It happened yesterday. If you haven’t heard of HNDL (Harvest Now, Decrypt Later), your long-term data strategy has a massive blind spot. Here is the reality: State actors and cybercriminals are capturing your encrypted data today. They can’t read it yet, so they’re storing it in massive data vaults, waiting for the "Qday"—the moment quantum computers become powerful enough to break current encryption. If your data needs to stay private for 5, 10, or 20 years, it’s already at risk. What’s on the line? ↳ Intellectual Property (IP) and trade secrets. ↳ Government and identity data. ↳ Long-term financial records and contracts. ↳ Sensitive customer health data. How do we solve it? 🛠️ We cannot wait for quantum supremacy to react. The fix starts now: ↳ Inventory: Identify which data has a long shelf-life. ↳ Crypto-Agility: Move toward systems that can swap encryption methods without a total overhaul. ↳ Hybrid PQC: Implement Post-Quantum Cryptography alongside classical methods to ensure traffic captured today remains a mystery tomorrow. The transition to quantum-resistant security is a marathon, not a sprint. Are you tracking HNDL on your current risk register? Let’s discuss in the comments. 👇 P.S. If you want help mapping your exposure or building a PQC migration plan, drop me a message. ♻️ Share this post if it speaks to you, and follow me for more. #QuantumSecurity #PQC

Quantum computing is moving from "science fiction" to "business reality" faster than most predicted. Two recent papers have fundamentally shifted the timeline for when we need to care about Quantum-Safe security: 1️⃣ The "10,000 Qubits" Milestone: New research shows that we can execute Shor’s algorithm—the math that breaks today’s encryption—with far fewer resources than previously thought. By using reconfigurable atomic qubits, the hardware requirements for cracking RSA-2048 have dropped by nearly 20x. 2️⃣ The "9-Minute" Crypto Warning: Google’s latest whitepaper highlights a terrifying reality for digital assets. Under advanced quantum scenarios, the encryption protecting a cryptocurrency wallet could be cracked in under 10 minutes. This puts billions in "dormant" assets at immediate risk of "at-rest" attacks. The Bottom Line: The "Q-Day" window is shrinking. It’s no longer about if a quantum computer can break your encryption, but when your current migration timeline will run out. How do we respond? We can't just flip a switch on "Q-Day." For many organizations, becoming quantum safe is a multi-year journey. This is where Palo Alto Networks Quantum-Safe Security comes in. Instead of a manual, multi-year overhaul, we provide a path to Agentic Resilience: - Continuous Discovery: It automatically maps your "cryptographic bill of materials" (CBOM), identifying exactly where vulnerable RSA and ECC algorithms are hiding in your network. - Risk Prioritization: It correlates your encryption strength with business criticality, telling you exactly which high-value assets need to move to Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) first. - Real-Time Remediation: For legacy systems that can’t be easily upgraded, a "Quantum-Safe Proxy" re-encrypts vulnerable traffic into post-quantum algorithms (like ML-KEM) at the network edge. The transition to a quantum-safe future is a marathon, but the starting gun has already fired. Learn how to take your first steps at the link in the comments.

Q-Day Approaches: Why Quantum Computing Is Becoming Bitcoin’s Most Serious Long-Term Threat Introduction Rapid progress from Google, IBM, and Microsoft is accelerating the arrival of “Q-Day”—the moment a fault-tolerant quantum computer can break Bitcoin’s elliptic-curve signatures. More than $711 billion in exposed Bitcoin sits in wallets whose public keys are already visible on-chain. Upgrading Bitcoin to post-quantum security could take years, creating a widening risk window. How a Quantum Attack Would Unfold • A quantum attacker scans the blockchain for addresses that have ever revealed public keys. • Using Shor’s algorithm, the quantum machine derives private keys from those exposed public keys. • The attacker signs transactions, drains targeted wallets, and broadcasts legitimate-looking transfers. • Billions could move within minutes before the community realizes a coordinated quantum attack has begun. Why Bitcoin Is Vulnerable • Bitcoin relies on elliptic-curve signatures that are easily broken by sufficiently powerful quantum systems. • Early addresses (including ~1 million Satoshi-era coins) exposed their public keys immediately, making them prime targets. • Lost-key wallets and abandoned holdings—worth more than $180 billion—cannot be migrated to post-quantum formats. • Post-quantum signatures are far larger (10–100× today’s size), creating major scalability and storage challenges. Where Quantum Computing Stands in 2025 • Google’s 105-qubit Willow chip and IBM’s roadmap point to fault-tolerant systems late this decade. • Microsoft’s Majorana platform and NIST’s coherence breakthroughs accelerate progress. • Experts now warn the timeline could compress into the late 2020s or early 2030s. Paths to Protect the Bitcoin Network • P2TRH (Taproot Hash): Hides keys with additional hashing to reduce exposure today. • BIP-360 (Hybrid PQC Addresses): Combines existing signatures with ML-DSA or SLH-DSA for a gradual transition. • Quantum-Safe Taproot: Adds hidden PQC branches activated only when needed. • QRAMP (Mandatory Migration): Hard-forked protocol to move all vulnerable coins to quantum-safe addresses. • STARK-Based Compression (NTC): Reduces storage burden by compressing large PQC signatures. • Commit-Reveal and Helper UTXOs: Pre-published commitments and auxiliary protections to harden spends. Why This Matters Bitcoin’s decentralization makes major upgrades slow—and a fragmented response could leave abandoned coins exposed, distort markets, and damage trust. Q-Day may not be imminent, but the pace of quantum progress is erasing the margin for complacency. Preparing the network now is essential to safeguard long-term economic stability and the integrity of the world’s largest decentralized financial system. I share daily insights with 33,000+ followers across defense, tech, and policy. If this topic resonates, I invite you to connect and continue the conversation. Keith King https://lnkd.in/gHPvUttw

By 2035, quantum computers could break today’s RSA/ECC, threatening everything from over-the-air updates to payments, V2X, charging, telematics, and dealer systems. And “harvest-now, decrypt-later” means data we encrypt today may be readable tomorrow. Thankfully, there’s a path forward with Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC). So here's what we’re doing (and what I recommend): 1️⃣ Prioritize what matters: Classify apps/data by sensitivity & lifespan (vehicles, keys, firmware, contracts). Tackle the critical 10% first. 2️⃣ Start pilots now: Stand up PQC for key exchange and signatures (NIST picks: CRYSTALS-Kyber, Dilithium, plus FALCON/SPHINCS+ where appropriate). Wrap legacy with interim controls where upgrades aren’t yet feasible. 3️⃣ Engineer for the edge/IoT: Plan for constrained ECUs and long service lives; align PQC with model year cycles and sunset plans to avoid hardware rip-and-replace. 4️⃣ Educate & govern: A cross-functional council (CISO, engineering, legal, procurement) to drive roadmap, metrics, and auditability. Quantum risk isn’t a future storm; it’s a countdown. Organizations that move now will secure their platforms and earn customer trust in the next digital economy. #Cybersecurity #PQC #RiskManagement 📸: BCG

*** The Quantum Threat (Part 2) *** Mitigating Quantum Risks A plausible roadmap is taking shape to counteract these vulnerabilities. The primary long-term strategy is to integrate post-quantum cryptography into the network – using new algorithms that are resistant to quantum attacks. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has a short list of PQC protocols that include CRYSTALS-Dilithium, SPHINCS+, and FALCON. Note too that we have established the Coinbase Independent Advisory Board on Quantum Computing and Blockchain, a group of world-renowned experts convened to evaluate the implications of quantum computing for the blockchain ecosystem and provide clear, independent guidance to the broader community. Guidance from Chaincode Labs – a bitcoin research and development center – sketches two multi-year processes to mitigate the risk. First, if quantum computing experiences a sudden breakthrough, a short-term contingency path could be implemented within two years that quickly deploys protective measures to secure the network by prioritizing migration transactions exclusively. On the other hand, if quantum breakthroughs do not occur, a longer-term path could be used to standardize quantum-resistant signatures via a soft fork, though post‑quantum signatures are larger and slower to verify than today’s signatures, so wallets, nodes, and fee economics need time to adapt. This could take up to seven years to fully implement. Fortunately, the most advanced quantum machines today have fewer than 1,000 qubits, far short of what would be needed to compromise the cryptography that secures blockchains like Bitcoin. Promising technical proposals to address the quantum threat include: 🔹 BIP-360 (Pay-to-Quantum-Resistant-Hash) to keep public keys off-chain and pave the way for post quantum signatures 🔹 BIP-347 (re-enabling OP_CAT to support hash-based one-time signatures) 🔹 Hourglass (rate-limiting spends from vulnerable outputs to stabilize the transition) Best practices include avoiding address reuse, moving vulnerable UTXOs to unique destinations, and developing client-facing materials to institutionalize quantum-ready operations. This approach is supported by the current understanding that vulnerable scripts are not in production and that per-address fund limits mitigate concentration risk. Overall, we do not view quantum computing as an imminent threat because today’s machines are orders of magnitude too small to break Bitcoin’s cryptography. That said, we are glad that the open-source community remains vigilant about engineering post-quantum migration paths.

I've given talks about Post Quantum Cryptography the past few years and pretty much everyone has appreciated the heads up, for those that haven't made it to a talk here are the highlights of what you need to do to prepare for Quantum Computers. 1) Build organizational readiness: • Educate and align the C-suite on the urgency of quantum risk and make the business case for a multi-year investment, i.e. get budget. • Identify personnel responsible for migration execution across different teams, i.e. assign a point person for this project. 2) Discover what you have and assess if the systems are ready: • Get an inventory of you hardware and software assets to identify encryption protocols and categorize them (PQ ready, depreciated, really old). • Assess whether hardware assets have sufficient compute to support PQC algorithms (most systems will but the OS might not be ready) • Figure out which systems will require upgrades or replacements. • Identify vendors and partners that you use and discuss their PQC roadmaps, migration support capabilities. [This one is key, talk to your vendors, find out what they are doing, or not doing!] 3) Begin getting Quantum ready • Buy the hardware / software and replace or upgrade whatever does not support PQ cryptography • Test things! Run proof-of-concept deployments in controlled environments (i.e. your test environment) and use a hybrid approach that combine current and post-quantum algorithms. 4) Deploy Quantum ready solutions • Roll out your solutions / new hardware & software in phases, starting with your high priority systems (Duh). • Ensure configurations enforce quantum-safe algorithms by default and automatically block deprecated algorithms when possible (this will be harder than you might think). • Update your security policies to manage both current and quantum-safe network traffic as you transition. • For the old stuff you can't get rid of, use proxy solutions to make IoT devices (like hospitals, manufacturing, etc.) quantum-ready until they can be updated directly. Last but not least, be prepared to change encryption schemes going forward, what we call, Crypto Agility. 5) Keep patching your stuff • Now that you have a list of your hardware and software and what kind of encryption is uses, do this: • Monitor your inventory for vulnerabilities or new threats. Keep in mind that PQ standards are new and they will likely change over time. • Establish a process to replace or update vulnerable algorithms There, you've now just read my talk, but you missed all my jokes and fun stories, but you got the details / important take aways. 😃 😁 😀 If you want the Internal Control Questionnaire (#ICQ) I put together for some auditor friends, message me here and I'll send it to you.

IS YOUR ENTERPRISE READY FOR "Q-DAY"? "Q-day" (or Quantum Day) is the point in time when quantum computers become powerful enough to break the public-key encryption (like RSA or ECC) that currently secures global digital, financial, and government infrastructure. Our current best estimates is that Q-Day will happen by 2029! Huge thanks to Dr. Rob Campbell, FBBA. , IBM Global Quantum-Safe Executive and IBM Quantum Ambassador, for guest lecturing to our University of Arkansas ­- Sam M. Walton College of Business EMBA students. His insights into the "Quantum-Safe" transition provided a crucial roadmap for how leadership must navigate the next few years of cybersecurity. Here's what we learned: Adversaries are currently collecting encrypted data to store and decrypt once quantum computers are powerful enough to calculate private keys—a strategy known as "Harvest now, decrypt Later". Because enterprise cryptographic migrations can take 5 to 15+ years, many large organizations will still be in transition when quantum computers become capable of breaking current encryption. What enterprises can do NOW: Dr. Campbell emphasized that Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) is a leadership issue, not just a technical one. To preserve trust and resilience, leaders should authorize these "low-regret" actions immediately: - Inventory cryptographic dependencies: identify what you have before you plan what to change. - Prioritize high-value data: Focus on data with the longest confidentiality horizons, not just the most "critical" systems. - Invest in crypto-agility: Design systems for the permanent ability to swap algorithms without rebuilding the entire architecture. - Pilot PQC today in non-mission critical systems: PQC standards were finalized by NIST in 2024 and are ready for deployment on classical computers now. Enterprises can learn in these lower risk systems. - Communicate metrics to boards in non-technical jargon. Dr. Campbell noted, the question is whether we manage this change deliberately now or inherit it under pressure later. He stressed the importance of wide-spread education. To that end, Professor Daniel Conway will be offering the Walton College's first Quantum Computing class this fall! Adam Stoverink, Ph.D.; Shaila Miranda; Brian Fugate; Brent D. Williams; James Allen Regenor, Col USAF(ret) #QuantumSafe #PQC #CyberSecurity #Leadership #EMBA #DigitalTransformation #RiskManagement