Quantum Research for National Security Strategy

👉 Recently, my work on #quantum #technology and its impacts on international security was published at SIPRI. Here, I would like to highlight my observations and recommendations. I would like to point out the main observations and recommendations, especially covering: 🔸High-resolution magnetic and gravity data sets will become strategic assets 🔸Quantum decryption capabilities may widen intelligence asymmetries between states with different levels of technological advancement 🔸The strategic impact of quantum will depend on its integration with other technologies, not on quantum systems alone 🔸Dual-use quantum development will accelerate and attempts to fully separate civilian and military pathways are unlikely to succeed 🔸National self-sufficiency in quantum technologies is unrealistic—international cooperation is necessary for resilience and innovation 🔸There is a growing need for dedicated institutions to assess the peace and security implications of quantum technologies 🔸Malicious or illicit use of quantum technologies by non-state actors is likely to emerge over time

Headline: Quantum Threats Extend to Orbit as Space Systems Face Urgent Security Overhaul Introduction: The approaching “Q-Day,” when quantum computers can break current encryption, is no longer theoretical. Experts warn that space systems—long considered secure by distance—are now highly exposed, forcing governments and industry to accelerate a complex transition to post-quantum cryptography. Key Developments: Breaking the Illusion of Space Security Recent cyber incidents, including satellite hacks and data interceptions, prove space is not inherently secure Adversaries can already intercept and store satellite communications for future decryption Threats include spoofing, jamming, command hijacking, and denial-of-service attacks Quantum Race and Strategic Risk U.S. and China are competing to achieve quantum breakthroughs with national security implications Concerns persist that China may gain a first-mover advantage while obscuring progress Q-Day could render current encryption across space and terrestrial systems obsolete Mandated Transition to Post-Quantum Security U.S. policy requires migration to quantum-resistant cryptography under CNSA 2.0 Deadlines: quantum-secure systems by 2035, with major milestones in 2025 and 2027 NIST standardized key algorithms in 2024, enabling immediate transition efforts Operational Challenges in Space Space systems face constraints in size, weight, power, and compute capacity Post-quantum keys are larger, complicating deployment in constrained environments Satellites have long lifecycles, making hardware upgrades difficult or impossible Emerging Solutions and Industry Response Emphasis on crypto agility to enable software-based updates without hardware replacement Manufacturers are embedding post-quantum security directly into hardware and onboard systems New quantum-secure space infrastructure, including routers and communication modules, is under development Immediate Risk Factors “Harvest now, decrypt later” exposes sensitive data already in transit or storage Side-channel attacks and key extraction are already feasible in some scenarios Delay in migration increases long-term exposure and potential mission compromise Why It Matters: Space is now a contested digital domain where encryption integrity underpins national security, economic infrastructure, and military operations. The transition to post-quantum cryptography is not optional—it is a strategic imperative. Organizations that fail to act risk systemic vulnerability across satellite networks that cannot be easily repaired once deployed. The broader implication is clear: future resilience will depend on proactive architecture, crypto agility, and the ability to secure systems against threats that have not fully materialized—but are already inevitable. I share daily insights with tens of thousands followers across defense, tech, and policy. Keith King https://lnkd.in/gHPvUttw

Three weeks ago, our Devsinc security architect, walked into my office with a chilling demonstration. Using quantum simulation software, she showed how RSA-2048 encryption – the same standard protecting billions of transactions daily – could theoretically be cracked in just 24 hours by a sufficiently powerful quantum computer. What took her classical computer billions of years to attempt, quantum algorithms could solve before tomorrow's sunrise. That moment crystallized a truth I've been grappling with: we're not just approaching a technological evolution; we're racing toward a cryptographic apocalypse. The quantum computing market tells a story of inevitable disruption, surging from $1.44 billion in 2025 to an expected $16.22 billion by 2034 – a staggering 30.88% CAGR that signals more than market enthusiasm. Research shows a 17-34% probability that cryptographically relevant quantum computers will exist by 2034, climbing to 79% by 2044. But here's what keeps me awake at night: adversaries are already employing "harvest now, decrypt later" strategies, collecting our encrypted data today to unlock tomorrow. For my fellow CTOs and CIOs: the U.S. National Security Memorandum 10 mandates full migration to post-quantum cryptography by 2035, with some agencies required to transition by 2030. This isn't optional. Ninety-five percent of cybersecurity experts rate quantum's threat to current systems as "very high," yet only 25% of organizations are actively addressing this in their risk management strategies. To the brilliant minds entering our industry: this represents the greatest cybersecurity challenge and opportunity of our generation. While quantum computing promises revolutionary advances in drug discovery, optimization, and AI, it simultaneously threatens the cryptographic foundation of our digital world. The demand for quantum-safe solutions will create entirely new career paths and industries. What moves me most is the democratizing potential of this challenge. Whether you're building solutions in Silicon Valley or Lahore, the quantum threat affects us all equally – and so does the opportunity to solve it. Post-quantum cryptography isn't just about surviving disruption; it's about architecting the secure digital infrastructure that will power humanity's next chapter. The countdown has begun. The question isn't whether quantum will break our current security – it's whether we'll be ready when it does.

A decade ago, quantum computing was a niche research field. Today, it’s a national security asset. Quantum processors are no longer just being designed in labs—they’re being 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗱, 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗮𝗻𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗲𝗱. Governments around the world are tightening 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗿𝘂𝗹𝗲𝘀, 𝗯𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 in an attempt to stay ahead in the quantum race. 🔹 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗦 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗴𝗿𝗶𝗽 with strict export controls on quantum computers, cryogenics, control electronics, and even outbound investments in Chinese quantum firms. Key Chinese quantum institutes are blacklisted, cutting them off from high-end Western components. 🔹 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗽. Countries like France, Germany, and the UK have added quantum tech to their national export control lists, even ahead of formal EU-wide rules. The UK and Japan have imposed licensing requirements for quantum hardware exports to prevent tech leakage to adversaries. 🔹 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝗵 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗲. On one hand, it's accelerating its self-reliance strategy, pouring billions into domestic quantum R&D to break dependence on Western suppliers. On the other, China is tightening its own export laws—potentially restricting key quantum-related materials and technologies. 🔹 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗲, aligning with US and EU tech policies to secure access to advanced quantum systems while positioning itself as a key emerging player. 🚨 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗶𝗴 𝗽𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲? Quantum technology is turning into a 𝗴𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘁, not just a scientific breakthrough. Nations are using export controls, trade agreements, and investment restrictions to shape who leads and who lags. The result? A world where access to quantum hardware is increasingly 𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗱𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀. As someone deep in this space, I wonder: Are these restrictions necessary to protect national security, or are we risking a fragmented quantum ecosystem?

National Quantum Strategy Briefing Report Quantum computing has increasingly been recognized by governments as a strategic national capability with far-reaching implications for economic competitiveness, national security, scientific #leadership, and technological #sovereignty. As a result, a growing number of countries have adopted formal national #quantum strategies that converge around five pillars: sustained public investment in quantum #research, pathways for commercialization and scale-up, development of a highly skilled quantum #workforce, protection of critical infrastructure, and alignment with #standards, #cybersecurity, and #governance frameworks. Several advanced economies have already published comprehensive national quantum strategies. #Germany introduced one of the earliest coordinated national approaches and has continued to refine it through updated federal programs. #France launched its national quantum plan in 2021, emphasizing sovereignty, industrial competitiveness, and dual-use applications. The #UnitedKingdom published a 10-year National Quantum Strategy in 2023, integrating research excellence with commercialization and defense priorities. #Canada released its National Quantum Strategy the same year, positioning quantum as a cornerstone of long-term economic growth and innovation. At the supranational level, the European Union adopted the Quantum Europe Strategy, framing quantum technologies as essential to strategic autonomy and future competitiveness. #SouthKorea has similarly advanced a national strategy focused on industrial leadership and global supply-chain positioning. #China, #India, and #Australia have each adopted distinct national approaches to quantum technologies reflecting their economic models and strategic priorities. China embeds quantum development within long-term state planning, emphasizing large-scale public investment, infrastructure build-out, and technological self-reliance across communications, computing, and sensing. India advances quantum computing through its mission-driven National Quantum Mission, which focuses on capacity building, indigenous innovation, workforce development, and strategic applications aligned with national digital initiatives. Australia’s National Quantum Strategy is industry-centric, prioritizing commercialization, talent attraction, research translation, and international collaboration to position the country as a competitive global quantum #innovation hub. The United States recently took a step with a newly issued executive order on quantum technologies, mandating a whole-of-government approach and directing federal agencies to update and operationalize a comprehensive National Quantum Strategy. It emphasizes accelerated deployment of quantum computing, sensing, and networking capabilities; strengthened public–private and allied partnerships; and enhanced coordination across research, #defense, and #energy agencies.

The global quantum computing race just shifted from theoretical physics to sovereign risk. If you sit on a Global 1000 board, direct national defense policy, or deploy tier-one capital, the era of quantum "hype" is officially over. Based on the latest 2025–2026 data, Israel has quietly engineered a highly coordinated "Two-Engine" quantum ecosystem designed for industrial integration and strategic resilience. Here is the executive snapshot of where the capital, the supply chain, and the geopolitics are colliding—and how boards must govern it: 🏗️ 1. The "Two-Engine" Architecture Israel is executing a ruthless, dual-pronged strategy: • Engine 1 (Sovereignty): Hyper-focused on defense superiority, post-quantum cryptography (PQC), and financial resilience. • Engine 2 (Market): Anchored by a massive concentration of multinational R&D centers securing the global supply chain. 💰 2. Strategic Capital Allocation Smart money is no longer trying to build the "race car" (the QPU); it is building the engine and the dashboard. • Public: The Israel National Quantum Initiative (INQI) is deploying a $390M budget. • Private: Capital is flooding the "enabling layers." Quantum Machines raised ~$280M to lead global control systems; Classiq secured massive Series C funding ($173M+) to dominate software synthesis. • Geopolitical: A proposed $200M US-Israel Quantum Fund is advancing for 2026–2030 to counter adversarial tech dominance. ⚓ 3. The Multi-National Anchors You cannot map this sovereign infrastructure without the silicon giants: • Nvidia: Driving the backbone of AI and quantum data center networking. • Intel: Leveraging its massive Kiryat Gat fabrication footprint. • AWS: Designing custom silicon that bleeds directly into quantum control logic. 🏦 4. The Regulatory Shockwave (Directive 364) In January 2025, the Bank of Israel issued Directive 364, requiring banks to map encryption dependencies and submit PQC preparedness plans within one year. This instantly shifted the industry from "theory" to mandatory board-level compliance. 🛡️ 5. The Governance Imperative: The GBAC QSI Overlay With tightening U.S. export controls, the goal is independent technological sovereignty. But how does a global enterprise govern this? Traditional frameworks (COSO, COBIT, ITIL) are failing at the quantum layer. To safely integrate these technologies, organizations must deploy the Quantum Strategic Intelligence (QSI) model. QSI acts as the overarching governance architecture—overlaying sovereign infrastructures like Israel’s—to protect the enterprise from the "Atom to the Algorithm." A question for my network: With central banks now mandating post-quantum preparedness plans, how is your board or agency mapping its cryptographic dependencies? Are you still relying on legacy models? Let's discuss below. 👇 Aviad Tamir, Nir Minerbi, Asif Sinay #QuantumComputing #CorporateGovernance #NationalSecurity #DeepTech #TechStrategy #Geopolitics #PostQuantumCryptography #GBAC #QSI

Quantum Computing and Defense: The Next Strategic Frontier Quantum computing presents major implications for future military and defense technology. Based on available public and government data, five nations are leading global investment in quantum research with dual-use (civil and defense) potential: 🇨🇳 China ↳ Estimated $15 billion in national quantum R&D funding ↳ PLA-linked institutes developing quantum communication and sensing ↳ Quantum satellite demonstrations for secure communication ↳ Leads globally in quantum patents and publications 🇺🇸 United States ↳ Multi-billion-dollar investment through the National Quantum Initiative ↳ Coordination across DOE, NSF, DOD, and NIST ↳ Defense projects via DARPA and Air Force Research Lab ↳ Focus on quantum cryptography, simulation, and sensing systems 🇪🇺 European Union ↳ Over €10 billion committed by EU and member states collectively ↳ Quantum Flagship (€1 billion) drives collaborative R&D ↳ Focus on dual-use sensors, communications, and aircraft systems ↳ Partnerships across Germany, France, and the Netherlands 🇬🇧 United Kingdom ↳ £2.5 billion (≈ $3 billion) through the National Quantum Strategy ↳ MOD projects in quantum radar, navigation, and timing ↳ Strong collaboration between government, academia, and industry ↳ Clear pathway toward operational defense applications 🇨🇦 Canada ↳ CAD 360 million through the National Quantum Strategy ↳ Partnerships between universities and the Department of National Defence ↳ Research focused on secure communications and quantum simulation ↳ Active contributor within NATO’s emerging tech discussions These investments reflect each nation's strategic priorities in next-generation defense capabilities. The data shows substantial government commitment across all five countries, with varying approaches to implementation. What trends do you see in your country's technology investments? Share your thoughts on defense technology development ♻️ Repost to help people in your network Follow me for more defense technology analysis

Canada has named quantum a sovereign capability The Defence Industrial Strategy, released today, is an interesting signal for the Canadian quantum sector Quantum computing, quantum communications, and quantum sensors are all explicitly designated as sovereign capabilities, placing them in the highest priority tier for domestic procurement and investment. Sovereign capability designation means the government's new Defence Investment Agency will direct procurements in these areas to Canadian firms as a matter of policy, using the national security exception where needed. The BUILD-first framework is designed to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers and secure domestic ownership of critical IP. The strategy creates multiple pathways quantum companies can access: a $4B BDC Defence Platform for venture capital and loans, $244M through NRC-IRAP for SMBs advancing defence and dual-use technologies, $358M through Regional Development Agencies, BOREALIS (a new defence R&D accelerator with quantum as a named priority), and reformed ITB policies with enhanced multipliers for strategic investments.

China’s latest quantum policy signals make one thing clear: quantum technology continues moving from the laboratory to the core of national strategy. Over the past weeks, Beijing approved the framework for its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), where quantum technologies are positioned among the most critical “future industries” shaping the next phase of economic and technological development. The plan calls for accelerated investment in quantum computing, quantum communications, and related frontier technologies as part of a broader push toward technological self-reliance and advanced industrial capability. (Reuters) This policy direction comes on top of a rapidly expanding ecosystem. China’s quantum sector has been growing at more than 30 percent annually, with the number of companies in the field increasing significantly in recent years as commercialization begins to take shape. (China Briefing) At the same time, research groups continue to report scientific milestones. Chinese teams have recently demonstrated advances in scalable quantum networks and in quantum teleportation experiments, illustrating progress across both communication and information processing capabilities. (Chinese Academy of Sciences) The broader strategic objective is clear: to build an integrated ecosystem that spans quantum computing, quantum communications, and next-generation network infrastructure. Long-distance quantum communication experiments, including intercontinental satellite links, are already pointing toward the future architecture of secure global networks. (NetMission.Asia) For policymakers, industry leaders, and researchers worldwide, these developments underline a deeper transformation underway. Quantum technologies are no longer viewed solely as a scientific frontier. They are increasingly embedded in industrial strategy, national security planning, and global technological competition. The next decade will likely determine which countries succeed in translating quantum science into scalable infrastructure, secure communications, and practical computational advantage. Resources in the comment section! #QuantumTechnology #QuantumComputing #QuantumSecurity #DeepTech #TechnologyPolicy #Innovation

Geneva has already transmitted election results over a telecom network secured with quantum cryptography. A real-world deployment protecting a democratic process. Now Switzerland has published its first national quantum strategy. Released on 4 March, the roadmap proposes CHF 200–300M in additional investment, complementing the CHF 100M already committed through 2028. The ambition is significant. The challenge now is execution: turning world-class research into infrastructure, industry and durable economic value. Switzerland has 200+ quantum research groups, ETH Zürich and EPFL rank among the world’s leading institutions, Swiss labs have already produced startups and commercial applications in quantum cryptography and sensing. The strategy focuses more on the shared national platforms enabling deep tech to cross the “valley of death” between the laboratory and the market. That includes: ▫️ specialised cleanrooms and test facilities ▫️ competence centres for quantum communication and sensing ▫️ a national quantum simulation facility ▫️ a public-private quantum hub to attract talent and capital ▫️ stronger deep-tech funding mechanisms ➡️ The goal is to reduce the infrastructure and capital barriers between breakthrough research and commercial deployment. More companies survive. More IP stays local. More value in the ecosystem. 🔹 Quantum cryptography and ultra-precise sensing are already moving into security-relevant and commercially meaningful applications - from secure comms to industrial use cases in energy, pharma, manufacturing. 🔹 Universal quantum computing - capable of solving problems beyond classical capability - still faces major technical hurdles. The race remains open. But the ecosystems most likely to prevail will be those connecting science, capital, industrialisation, security and trust into a coherent system. Europe has seen this pattern before. In cloud, digital platforms and AI, the debate about sovereignty began after dependency had already taken hold. Switzerland appears determined to move earlier this time, betting that trusted infrastructure will become the next strategic layer of the digital economy - and that institutional stability, scientific depth and shared industrial platforms can create a competitive advantage that scale alone cannot replicate. For boards and executives, 3 questions matter: 1️⃣ Which critical systems rely on encryption that quantum capabilities will challenge? Is there a credible transition plan? 2️⃣ Are the public-private investment instruments emerging across Switzerland and EU being tracked as strategic opportunities? 3️⃣ Is there a clear quantum readiness position across cyber, infrastructure, investment and talent? Curious how you see quantum today: a research frontier, or already emerging as infrastructure? #Quantum #DigitalTrust #DigitalSovereignty #DeepTech #Boardroom