Uncertainty Management Practices

You can't treat every forecast the same. More uncertainty means more risk, and you want to deal with it correctly. After building forecasting models at P&G, Unilever, and Squarespace, I've learned there are three ways to manage uncertainty: 𝟭) 𝗔𝘃𝗼𝗶𝗱 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 The more uncertainty, the fewer assumptions you should include. Why? Because if you add multiple variables on top of each other, their margin of error multiplies. If you base the forecast on many assumptions, it's nearly impossible to determine which one was accurate and which wasn't. So, keep your models as simple as possible. Isolate the variables. You can always add additional assumptions later once you better understand the correlations. 𝟮) 𝗥𝘂𝗻 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁-𝗜𝗳 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 It's your job as a finance leader to quantify the risk of a forecast. The easiest way to do that is by changing individual inputs and noting how much impact that has on the forecast. For example, if a 5% price change affects the revenue forecast by 25%, that's a major risk you'll need to call out. 𝟯) 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗮 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 Sometimes analysts make the mistake of assuming ranges make it look like they aren't confident in their forecast. But a well-measured range is critical for two reasons: One, it shows the order of magnitude of risk. Your CFO knows what's a conservative estimate to communicate to investors. Two, it enables scenario planning. Leaders can plan contingency measures if results are at the lower end of the range. 𝗜𝗻 𝘀𝘂𝗺, 𝘁𝗼 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹: 1. Reduce the number of assumptions 2. Estimate the risk by running sensitivity analysis 3. Provide ranges instead of point estimates Which approach do you find most useful? Comment below 👇 -Christian Wattig 📌 Get my 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲 + 𝟰𝟲 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 (free) here: https://lnkd.in/eBAmSF_6 

𝐋𝐚𝐰𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐔𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐲 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 We behave as if certainty is the natural state of the world and Uncertainty is an interruption. In reality the opposite is true. Markets move, technologies evolve, relationships change and even scientific knowledge progresses through revision rather than final answers. Managing uncertainty therefore becomes one of the most important skills in leadership and certain laws can help here. 1. The Law of Incomplete Information No leader, scientist or policymaker may ever see the full picture. Data is always delayed, incomplete or filtered through assumptions. Waiting for perfect knowledge often means missing the moment when action matters most.Decision-makers therefore can shift their thinking. Instead of asking “Do we know everything?” they ask “Do we know enough to act responsibly? Implication: Decisions should be based on sufficient information, not perfect information. 2. The Law of Probabilities Financial markets, climate models, epidemiology, and artificial intelligence all operate through probability distributions rather than guarantees. The best thinkers learn to reason in terms of likelihoods instead of fixed outcomes. Instead of asking “What will happen?” they ask “What are the possible outcomes and how likely is each one?” Implication: Good decision-makers think in scenarios and probabilities & not single predictions. 3. The Law of Reversible Decisions When uncertainty is high, choose decisions that allow correction. In uncertain environments the wisest strategy is to favor decisions that can be reversed or refined as new information appears. Experiments, pilot programs and prototypes exist for this reason. Implication: When the future is unclear, experiment small and adjust quickly. 4. The Law of Adaptation Prediction is valuable but adaptation is survival. The most successful systems are those that adapt fastest when the future unfolds differently. Biological evolution works this way. So do resilient companies and learning organizations. Implication: Build systems and habits that learn, update & adapt continuously. 5.The Law of Humility The deeper the system we study, the greater the uncertainty we can encounter. Physics, economics and social systems all demonstrate that complex realities resist complete understanding. New discoveries often reveal deeper layers of complexity rather than final certainty. Humility therefore becomes a strategic advantage. It allows curiosity, openness to evidence and willingness to revise beliefs. Implication: Treat certainty cautiously and remain intellectually humble and open to revision. “Uncertainty is the only honest condition of knowledge.” — Richard Feynman Do you Know Richard Feynman?

Uncertainty isn’t the enemy of leadership. Silence in uncertainty is. Markets shift. Geopolitics flare. Technology disrupts. No leader can predict exactly what comes next. The mistake isn’t saying “I don’t know.” The mistake is leaving it there. Silence creates space for fear. Scenarios create space for confidence. The leaders I know say this: “We don’t know the future…But here are three ways it could play out, and here’s how we’ll respond to each.” That shift replaces anxiety with structure. Here’s how scenarios guide decisions: 1. Best Case → Maximise Opportunity • If growth rebounds, be ready to scale • Line up resources and move first • Optimism matters only if you’re prepared 2. Base Case → Navigate Steady State • In uneven recovery discipline wins • Tier your investments • Forecast cash tightly • Normalise quarterly adjustments 3. Worst Case → Build Resilience • Protect non-negotiables • Pre-approve cost levers • Over-communicate with empathy, reinforce purpose • Trust is forged in downturns, not booms. The real power is in cascading this skill to teams: → Model vulnerability (“I don’t know yet”) → Teach them to sketch 3 scenarios in 15 minutes → Anchor every path to concrete actions → Repeat until it becomes part of culture At 6 months, fear gives way to clarity. At 2 years, resilience becomes second nature. Remember, great leaders don’t eliminate uncertainty. They equip their people to move confidently within it. That’s how you scale trust, resilience, and momentum, inside your company and across your partnerships. --------------------------- Avoid missing insights like this. Get cheatsheets like this each Wednesday. Subscribe to my free newsletter: https://philhsc.com ➕ Follow me, Phil Hayes-St Clair for more like this.

𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 𝐢𝐬𝐧’𝐭 𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐫. 𝐈𝐭’𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐝 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐲 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬. Early in my career, I believed leadership meant reducing uncertainty for others. If I could provide direction quickly, decisions would feel safer. If I projected confidence, alignment would follow. That belief quietly changed during a project where timelines kept shifting and assumptions continued moving. Instead of rushing toward a forced answer, we paused to map what we truly knew, what we were testing, and what would trigger a change in direction. The outcome wasn’t perfect, but the team stayed steady. That was the moment I realised certainty isn’t what stabilises teams. Structure is. A 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓 𝐬𝐭𝐮𝐝𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝟑𝟎𝟏 𝐒𝐌𝐄𝐬 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐡𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐏𝐋𝐎𝐒 𝐎𝐧𝐞 found that resilience in uncertainty depends less on predicting outcomes and more on how leaders frame decisions and maintain team confidence. That insight mirrors what I’ve seen in practice. 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐚𝐦𝐛𝐢𝐠𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞. 𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐞𝐝 𝐦𝐲 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 1. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬. Instead of declaring outcomes, leaders clarify what they believe today and how they’ll learn if reality shifts. 2. 𝐒𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬. People don’t just listen to plans. They observe how leaders respond when information changes. Calm updates build confidence. Overcorrections create instability. 3. 𝐍𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥. When the environment is volatile, teams still need a coherent internal story grounded in values, direction, and decision principles even when data is incomplete. I noticed this in my own work. When I stopped trying to sound certain and started focusing on structuring decisions, managing signals, and holding a steady narrative, alignment improved even when outcomes were unclear. There’s a line I keep returning to: “𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐬, 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬.” Leadership maturity isn’t about eliminating uncertainty. It’s about building environments that remain coherent when uncertainty increases. 𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐲 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐬, 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐩𝐬 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐲 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩? LinkedIn LinkedIn News India LinkedIn News #Leadership #FutureOfWork #PersonalBranding #LinkedInNewsIndia #CreateMomentum

I don't know what I don't know - a common challenge that can derail projects and team success. Having led multiple teams and projects across Asia Pacific, I've learned that addressing unknown unknowns is crucial for project success. Here's how I approach this challenge: 🔍 Start with structured discovery sessions. I always kick off projects with comprehensive discovery workshops where team members can openly share their knowledge gaps and concerns. This creates psychological safety and helps surface potential blind spots early. 📊 Map out knowledge domains. I try to identify different areas of expertise needed for the project - technical, business, regulatory, market-specific requirements. This helps highlight where we might have gaps in our collective knowledge. 🤝 Engage subject matter experts early. When dealing with new markets or technologies, I proactively bring in experts from different functions or external consultants. Their insights often reveal critical considerations we hadn't thought about. Along the way, I will proactively consult them for issues that crop up along the way too. ❓ Ask better questions. I've learned that asking the right questions is more important than having immediate answers. Some key questions I always ask: - What regulatory or compliance issues might we face? - What market-specific factors should we consider? - What similar projects have we done before? - What were the unexpected challenges? 🔄 Regular retrospectives. I schedule frequent check-ins where teams can safely discuss new uncertainties that emerge. This creates a culture of continuous learning and adaptation. 💡 Build in buffer time. When planning projects, I always account for the "unknown unknowns" by adding contingency time and budget. The more complex, the more likely chance of delays. This has saved many projects from delays when unexpected challenges arose. So, fellow leaders and project managers, how do you handle the "unknown unknowns" in your projects? What strategies have worked well for you in identifying and addressing knowledge gaps? #leadership #coaching #strategy #jenelim

Leaders… Stop pretending you have all the answers. Your team can see right through it. In uncertain times, fake confidence breeds fear. Authentic clarity builds trust. The hardest test of leadership isn’t during stability. It’s when the storm hits, the map is incomplete, and the destination feels uncertain. The temptation?   - Act unshakably confident. - Or go silent. Both create fear. True leadership is about balance. Not having all the answers—but building an environment where the unknowns can be faced together. Here’s what great leaders do when uncertainty hits: 1. Clarity Over Counterfeit Confidence ✔ Don’t fake confidence—share clarity. Say: “Here’s what we know. Here’s what we don’t. Here’s our next step.” Clarity is strong. Fake confidence is fragile. ✔ Remind people of what stays true.  Mission. Values. Vision. Anchors that hold steady in chaos. ✔ Give people something tangible to focus on. A short-term goal, a project, a customer win. It brings direction when everything else feels uncertain. 2. Communication is the Lifeline ✔ Communicate more, not less. In silence, people imagine the worst. ✔ Model transparency. If you want honesty from your team, you go first. ✔ Repeat the message. What feels repetitive to you feels reassuring to them. 3. Empathy in Action ✔ Acknowledge fear. Don’t say, “Don’t worry.” Say, “I know this is stressful—and that’s okay.” ✔ Stay steady, not stoic. Calm presence > emotionless wall. ✔ Support people emotionally, not just operationally. Ask, “How are you doing, really?” 4. Inclusive Navigation ✔ Invite input, even when you can’t promise change. People don’t need every idea implemented. They just need to know they’ve been heard. Leadership in uncertainty isn’t about walking the tightrope alone. It’s about making sure the rope is steady, the net is secure, and the whole team feels ready to cross with you. What’s one practice you’ve found most effective in leading through uncertain times? #Leadership #Management #EmotionalIntelligence #TeamBuilding #PsychologicalSafety #FutureOfWork

RISK isn’t a villain in the market. It is a blind spot in your operating system. 🧠 Buffett’s line is blunt because it is true: “Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.” In companies, not knowing shows up as fuzzy units, lagging indicators, and decisions made on vibes. Fix the knowledge gap, shrink the risk. Here is how operators de-risk in practice: ↳ Know the unit. Is your core unit a seat, job, shipment, subscriber, or cohort. price per unit, gross margin per unit, time per unit. ↳ Make time visible. Map the process, measure cycle time and variance at each step, not just the average. Queues create hidden risk. ↳ Promote leading indicators. Pipeline quality, win rates by segment, first-time-right, on-time-in-full, cash conversion days. If it moves the cash or the customer, track it. ↳ Write triggers, not slogans. “If churn for Cohort A hits 3.5 percent in week 8, then launch save flow B within 24 hours.” Decisions should be codified, not debated weekly. ↳ Shorten feedback loops. Smaller batch sizes, frequent releases, fast postmortems, quick refunds. Speed reduces uncertainty, which reduces risk. ↳ Price learning. Treat experiments as line items. 1️⃣ hypothesis, 2️⃣ time box, 3️⃣ decision rule. Learning is an asset when it compounds. Here’s a simple operating playbook: 1️⃣ Clarify the work ↳ One page that defines the unit, constraints, owner, and success metric. ↳ List the unknowns you must burn down this month. 2️⃣ Instrument the flow ↳ One page of leading indicators with thresholds and triggers. ↳ Daily glance, weekly review, monthly reset. 3️⃣ Decide in small bets ↳ Run tight experiments. Ship the smallest change that proves or disproves. ↳ Keep a running “What we learned” ledger. 💡 When you know your unit, time, and triggers, you stop gambling. You are operating. Do these now: ✅ Write your one-page “unit of value,” including price, margin, and cycle time. ✅ Pick three leading indicators and set explicit thresholds with If-Then triggers. ✅ Schedule a 30-minute weekly review to log decisions and lessons learned. ♻️Repost & follow John Brewton for content that helps. ✅ Do. Fail. Learn. Grow. Win. ✅ Repeat. Forever. ⸻ 📬Subscribe to Operating by John Brewton for deep dives on the history and future of operating companies (🔗in profile).

Earlier this week, we spent two impactful days with a high-stakes, crisis-support organization. It's the start of a process to help their leaders, staff, and Board operate more effectively in an environment defined by extreme uncertainty. Organizations doing this kind of work rarely get predictable conditions. They face shifting demands, incomplete information, evergreen situations, and high-impact decisions that can’t wait for perfect clarity. In that landscape, traditional planning isn’t enough. The real skill is learning how to think and align when the future refuses to behave. Our work this week focused on building that capacity by: • Identifying the forces shaping their environment • Naming the critical uncertainties ahead • Beginning to outline what different futures could demand operationally, structurally, and behaviorally This wasn’t about producing a polished scenario plan. It was about giving the leadership team a disciplined, repeatable way to navigate complexity together so they can stay aligned when conditions shift, not after. What stood out to Allison Wright and I was their willingness to confront hard questions directly and to stay grounded in what their people and their mission will require across multiple possible futures. That’s the kind of leadership that's deeply necessary in crisis-driven environments. We’ll continue this work over the coming months. But the shift that happened in the room this week is an important beginning. Leading in uncertainty isn’t about predicting what comes next. It’s about preparing your organization to respond with consistency, confidence, and purpose when it does. What practices help your leadership team stay aligned when the variables keep shifting? #Leadership #ChangeLeadership #3KeysConsulting #StrategicAlignment #OrganizationEffectiveness #ScenarioPlanning #FutureOfWork

🚨 Uncertainty is near an all-time high 🚨 Since 1985, the U.S. Federal Reserve has tracked an uncertainty index—and it's now skyrocketing, fast approaching its pandemic-era peak. But you can THRIVE in these conditions. Here are 8 ways to do it: 🔹 1. Uncertainty Matrix – Map out what’s certainly known, certainly unknown, unevenly recognized in your organization, and critical blind spots. 🔹 2. Scenarios – Develop a few truly distinct scenarios (not just based on your company’s outcomes, but on market shifts). What actions can you take today to thrive in each future scenario? 🔹 3. Portfolio Plan – Assess the risk level, risk type, and maturity of your investments. Think of it as a diversified portfolio—how will it hold up in different market conditions? 🔹 4. Platforms vs. Products – Shift from rigid products to flexible platforms. Netflix, for example, is a platform that can evolve with the market—traditional broadcast networks do not. 🔹 5. Capture New Markets – Disruptive events create major opportunities. Fintech boomed after the financial crisis—where’s your industry’s next opening? Consider all dimensions: goods companies can grow into non-tariffed services, you can expand geographically, and more. 🔹 6. Agile Planning – Static, annual strategic plans don’t work during high uncertainty. Instead, focus on dynamic strategies that separate fixed priorities from adaptable tactics. 🔹 7. Reduce Inter-Dependencies – Create modular, flexible value propositions that can have both more agility and lower costs. 🔹 8. Put Customers First – Your customers’ Jobs to be Done remain constant—use them as your North Star for strategy, cost reduction, and option development. 📚 Want to go deeper? Our materials on FutureCasting and the book Rogue Waves address approaches 1 – 4, our book Capturing New Markets tackles point 5, our book The Innovative Leader focuses on point 6, and our books Costovation and Jobs to be Done concentrate on points 7 and 8. Dig into them or get in touch for a discussion. Uncertainty = Opportunity. Seize it!! 🚀 #Leadership #Strategy #Innovation #JobsToBeDone #Growth #Agility

Navigating Leadership in Turbulent Times- A few days ago, I had an interesting conversation with a friend about how Non Profits are facing this period of  unknowns and instability. For organizational leaders, the role we play in guiding our teams and ensuring the stability and resilience of our organizations has never been more critical. Here are a few things I learned about leading through uncertainty- 1. Focus with Intent We are constantly being hit with a barrage of incoherent tweets, rash decisions, and contradictory messaging that can feel overwhelming. Reacting to everything will leave us scattered, unfocused, and ineffective. Leaders must prioritize their organizational goals and focus on what they are best equipped to address. 🔑 Choose your battles wisely and resist the urge to 'play whack-a-mole' with every issue. Not every fight is yours to take on, and sometimes, the wisest move is not to fight at all. Focused leadership drives meaningful impact. 2. Embrace Collaboration - In this season of uncertainty, collaboration is not optional—it’s essential. Community and partnerships have always propelled movements forward. 🤝 Build a collaborative work culture, encouraging your team to cultivate strong relationships both internally and externally.  Collaboration builds trust, and allows people to build upon their strengths and leads to better decisions and outcomes.   3. Flexibility & Adaptability -"Be stubborn about your goals but flexible about how you achieve them." Strategy is not a fixed plan but an evolving path to reach a predetermined destination. Recognize when adjustments are needed and model adaptability for your team. 📣 Communicate openly with staff about changes and align around shared objectives, even if absolute agreement isn’t always possible. Pathways can emerge when teams are nimble and solutions-oriented. 4. Support Your Staff- Amid external crises, organizational trust often becomes strained. Now is the time to double down on creating a supportive environment for your team.  Focus on the short-term goals and the long-term mission when conflict arises. Look for areas of agreement to rally around. 💡 Consider what your organization can offer during this period, whether that’s flexible policies, open communication channels, or empathetic leadership. Teams perform best when they feel valued and supported. 5. Safeguard Your Organization - If your mission runs counter to the incoming administration’s policies, preparation is key. 📋 Run a risk assessment and review your policies/processes to ensure compliance and readiness. Develop clear protocols and maintain a strong relationship with your legal counsel.  A proactive approach will protect your organization from unnecessary risks. I can say from experience that leadership in turbulent times isn’t easy, but it’s also an incredible opportunity to model resilience, inspire focus, and foster collaboration.