Creative Scenario Planning

At Microsoft, I created a framework called "Book of Dreams." Each one was a Portfolio of Future Value: Sales and field teams worldwide used them to shape multi-million-dollar digital transformation conversations. One banking team attributed $60M in new pipeline in the first six months. The building block of every Book of Dreams was a single pattern. The 𝗖𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗿 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝗣𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻. Here's how it works: 𝗠𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗺𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲: Technology → Features → Hope customers care. 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲: Customer Pain → Desired Outcomes → Business Value → Solutions. That single flip changes everything. 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟭: 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 What is painful 𝘵𝘰𝘥𝘢𝘺? Not what you think is painful. What customers and employees are 𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘯𝘨. → Missing information → Too much manual work → Fragmented tools → Slow response times Pain creates urgency. Pain reveals opportunity. No pain = no scenario worth building. 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟮: 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 Here's the part most people miss. 𝗡𝗼 𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆. Just outcomes: → Better visibility → Better decisions → Better experiences → Smoother journeys If you name the technology too early, you constrain the innovation. Describe the destination first. The path will follow. 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟯: 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 Every scenario has a leader who owns it. The CMO cares about loyalty and acquisition. The COO cares about productivity and margin. The CPO cares about retention and time-to-value. Name the role. Name what they need. 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟰: 𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱 𝗮 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 One scenario is an idea. Ten scenarios, organized by Customer, Employee, and Operations, is a 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗼𝗳 𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲. Not features. Not a roadmap. A strategic map of 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘶𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘸𝘢𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥. This is what leaders can actually prioritize. 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝘀: Traditional planning forces you to compete at the feature level. This model keeps the focus on: Experience → Outcomes → Value. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗱𝗱𝗲𝗻 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿: It answers the hardest question in innovation: "𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝘄𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁?" Instead of debating ideas, leaders see: → the problem → the desired outcome → the business value And can prioritize the scenarios that create the most impact. The Customer Scenario Pattern: Current State → Customer Pain Desired Future State → Better Outcomes Stakeholder Value → Business Impact Portfolio of Scenarios → Future Value Roadmap I built this at Microsoft. I've taught it to leaders around the world. It works in every industry. At every scale. Start with customer reality. The solutions will find themselves. 𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘴𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘰 𝘸𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘣𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵?

Many FP&A teams fall into the trap of stopping at the “what-if” analysis. But that’s the bare minimum. Stellar FP&A teams? They’re proactive about scenario planning. And while both are important, they have important differences: → What-if analysis is goal-seeking that optimizes for a single variable. While useful, it's a very simplified version of the reality. → Scenario planning takes a broader view. It’s about identifying the key variables that truly impact your business and building actionable scenarios around them. It's a more nuanced and multi-faceted analysis of a complex and dynamic environment. The best FP&A teams make scenario planning a year-round practice, not just a budgeting-season exercise. Here’s how they do it: 1. Focus on key business levers Perform a sensitivity analysis on the 3–7 variables that drive your business (if you're not sure which variables are most important, go back to each stakeholder to identify the ones that matter - what moves your business?). 2. Keep a close pulse on teams Proactive scenario planning is only possible when you can track key levers against the roadmap and pipeline in real time. Is marketing struggling to build a pipeline? Why? In which part of the funnel? Is there a delay in the product roadmap that leads to lost deals? Why? Strong relationships with stakeholders give you the context you need to plan effectively. 3. Leverage technology to save time Year-round scenario planning can feel overwhelming, but modern tools make it manageable. Automate reporting and use AI integration to speed up the process and free your team to go beyond the data. When presented with compelling scenarios, the leadership team makes better, faster decisions, with more confidence. What strategies does your team use when planning scenarios?

This is a pivotal time for business leaders to apply strategic foresight and systems thinking. Go beyond tariffs and stock market trends and consider the broader, longer-term impacts: 1. How might a trend toward AI deregulation in product safety affect the AI products my business relies on? 2. In what ways could shifts in immigration policy influence my workforce strategy for maintaining a competitive edge with emerging technologies? How could these policies reshape PhD talent pipelines? 3. How will evolving U.S. geopolitical relationships impact my third-party suppliers and global partnerships? 4. With the increasing influence of techno-politics, what new considerations emerge for my business strategy? Scenario planning is key in moments of change and uncertainty.

"Should we hire or should we cut?" is a question I'm hearing often from small business owners right now, which is fair given the mixed economic signals. Some clients are seeing their best quarters ever. Others are watching pipelines thin out. Everyone seems to be asking, "How do we plan for what we can't predict?" This is where scenario planning becomes your survival tool; not just hoping for the best, but modeling the reality of different futures. Here's what we walk our clients through: 🌳 The Growth Scenario: For example, if revenue is expected to be up, we’re looking at potential team expansion and higher overhead. Looking at what that does for cash flow given the changes to expected expense changes. 🌱 The Steady Scenario: Where flat growth is expected and we plan to maintain current team, we’ll want to optimize margins and prepare for inevitable per team member increases. There will likely be some percentage increase YOY but we expect the core costs to stay the same. 🍃 The Contraction Scenario: On the other hand, if revenue is expected to go down, we want to look at strategic cuts that allow the team to run efficiently while preserving cash. For our clients, this is usually a mix of team, professional services, and travel. We also want to ensure that the resources kept are used efficiently. Each scenario gets its own financial mode where we map out cash flow, runway, and break-even points for 3, 6, and 12 months ahead. The command center for this? Fathom. We've been using Fathom since the beginning of Little Fish Accounting and it lets us build the scenarios in real-time with clients, showing exactly how each decision ripples through their financials. No more spreadsheet gymnastics or gut-feeling guesses. Ultimately, the founders who survive uncertainty aren't the ones with crystal balls—they're the ones with clear models and decisive action plans. And we're glad to be the builders 🧱

Across industries, clients are sharing with me that something quiet, yet significant, is unfolding in boardrooms: strategic planning is being fundamentally rethought, not just refreshed. Two signals are driving the shift: 1️⃣ Corporate Restructuring Is Accelerating Kraft Heinz’s decision to split into two companies is just one recent example. We're seeing more leadership teams acknowledge that legacy structures built for scale may now be barriers to growth: nimble entities are far more adaptable in uncertain times. In my own practice, I’m currently working with a large-scale healthcare executive client reorganizing around service-line profitability (not geography), and a fintech firm exploring spinouts to unlock value in client-driven capabilities. Clarity is the new currency and leading strategy discussions. Exclusionary growth-oriented strategies are passe. 2️⃣ Capital Markets Are Opening Back Up Another observation is that IPO momentum is returning. Axios recently reported up to 60 IPOs are expected before year-end. Klarna, Gemini, and others are moving forward, and even mid-market firms are reevaluating M&A plans. One client postponed a deal this summer, not because of funding obstacles, but to sharpen their investor story in light of the competition. The most impactful shift? Strategic planning itself is being rebuilt. Traditional planning models are losing trust and relevance. In today’s politicized and noisy environment, many of my clients are curating their own data ecosystems. Some have added “noise filters” to adjust for narrative manipulation. Others are shortening cycles from annual to rolling 6–9 months. Here are 3 practices I’m seeing among forward-looking orgs: ✅ Scenario Loops over Static Models Dynamic updates based on volatile indicators (commodities, regulation, consumer trust) guide real-time adjustments. ✅ Strategy + Structure Are Now Linked One tech firm redesigned its org chart during its strategy retreat, not 6 months later. ✅ Investor Storytelling Is Part of Planning Especially for firms near funding or IPO, strategic planning now includes a messaging track. My O&G CFO client called it their “Investor GPS.” As you prepare for your next planning cycle, ask: ·       Is our structure aligned for where we’re going, not just where we’ve been? ·       If the capital window opens, are we ready? ·       Are we telling a story the market believes? In 2026, strategy is more abut being directionally clear, structurally agile, and ready to move. #ExecutiveLeadership #StrategicPlanning #CapitalMarkets #IPO #CorporateRestructuring #2026Strategy #BoardLeadership

Stop asking AI to “brainstorm.” (Do this instead) If you type “Give me 10 creative ideas” into ChatGPT, you will get the average of the internet. You get generic, safe, vanilla patterns. The sea of sameness. To get breakthrough ideas, you need to force the AI off the beaten path using proven creative frameworks. I created this visual guide to replace unstructured requests with 8 specific techniques. Here is the full breakdown to upgrade your next session: 1. Divergent Thinking Focus on volume, not quality. Ask for 20 unique, unconventional ideas without judgment to clear the pipes. 2. Cross-Pollination Take two unrelated concepts and force them together. "Combine the hospitality of a 5-star hotel with the efficiency of a pit crew." 3. Constraint-Based Ideation Creativity loves constraints. "Generate ideas assuming we have only $100 and 24 hours to launch." 4. Role-Playing Scenarios (🌟 My Favorite) This is the most powerful unlock on the list. Pro Tip: Don’t just type this prompt.. use the Voice Mode (Siri-style) in ChatGPT, Gemini, or Claude. Tell the AI: "You are my angriest customer. I'm going to pitch you my new idea, and I want you to tear it apart." Having a literal spoken conversation with a persona surfaces objections and nuances that text prompting often misses. 5. SCAMMPER Technique Don't invent from scratch. Substitute, Combine, Adapt, Modify, Put to another use, Eliminate, or Reverse an existing idea. Modify twice! 6. Mind Mapping Ask the AI to explore the semantic web around your topic to find related sub-themes you haven't considered. 7. “What If” Scenarios Explore the extremes. “What if we had to 100x the value to our customers?" “What if it becomes free?" 8. Visual Brainstorming Switch modalities. Ask for visual concepts, scenes, and imagery descriptions rather than strategic text. Lazy prompts get lazy results. Treat the AI like an expert creative partner that needs direction, not a search engine that needs a keyword. Save this cheat sheet for your next strategy session. ——> Follow along with Matt Savarick to grow 💡 Repost to help your network grow ♻️

𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐞 ‘𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐀𝐥𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬’ 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐢𝐬 𝐊𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐂𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 – 𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐖𝐞 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐃𝐨 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐚𝐝 For decades, urban planning has followed the three-alternatives model, often leading to a hybrid fourth option—sometimes strategic, but often a reactionary mix of ideas. When done right, alternatives provide flexibility, but when built without data, scenario testing, or probability modeling, they can kill a city’s potential before it even takes shape. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗚𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗪𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴? - Alternatives without scenario-driven foundations lead to fragmented, uncoordinated urban growth. - Decisions based on hybridizing weak ideas instead of selecting the best-tested option. - Lack of probability-based forecasting, making urban expansion a guessing game. 𝟭𝟮 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗖𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿, 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼-𝗗𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗔𝗹𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀 To prevent urban failure, alternatives must be built on data, probability models, and scenario forecasting. Here’s how to do it right: 𝟭) Define Key Drivers Using Probabilistic Analysis – Identify economic, demographic, and climate trends using Monte Carlo simulations and historical data. 𝟮) Set Scenario Time Horizons & Probability Weights – Assign likelihood scores to different futures (Compact City = 60%, Sprawl = 30%, Decentralized Nodes = 10%). 𝟯) Use Bayesian Forecasting for Data-Driven Projections – Refine infrastructure demand and land use forecasts based on real estate and economic trends. 4) Develop Multiple Scenarios with Risk Probability Scores – Avoid single-outcome planning by testing multiple futures under different policy and economic stress tests. 5) Translate Scenarios into Spatial Alternatives – Ensure each alternative directly reflects a tested scenario, not just an arbitrary layout. 𝟲) Test Alternatives Against Economic & Environmental KPIs – Use real estate absorption models, climate risk scores, and probability-adjusted cost-benefit analysis. 𝟳) Factor in Policy & Regulatory Risks – Model zoning law changes, governance shifts, and regulatory enforcement trends to prevent future conflicts. 𝟴) Incorporate Economic Feasibility & ROI Projections – Use discounted cash flow (DCF) modeling to assess long-term financial sustainability 𝟵) Avoid Arbitrary Hybridization—Use Data to Justify Merging Alternatives – Only combine alternatives if probability models show compatibility, not as a political compromise. 𝟭𝟬) Engage Stakeholders & Test Probabilities with Digital Simulations. 𝟭𝟭) Plan Phased Implementation Based on Infrastructure Readiness – Align urban expansion with stochastic forecasting of infrastructure demand. 𝟭𝟮) 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀-𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀 for Black Swan Events – Model low-probability, high-impact disruptions 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝘽𝙤𝙩𝙩𝙤𝙢 𝙇𝙞𝙣𝙚: 𝙋𝙡𝙖𝙣𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙒𝙞𝙩𝙝𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙎𝙘𝙚𝙣𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙤𝙨 𝙇𝙚𝙖𝙙𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙐𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙧𝙩𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙮 #urban_planning #Urban_design #cityplanning

𝘐𝘧 𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦𝘴 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘤𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘬 — 𝘸𝘩𝘺 𝘩𝘪𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘯 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘵? was the title of my last post. The result: extensive comments, pushback, confirmations. I've been looking for patterns in the discussion. Here's my synthesis condensed into four core insights: 1. 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗮 𝗼𝗻𝗲-𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗸 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗶𝘁𝘆, 𝗶𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺. Raw texts, narrative drafts and standardized scenarios can be produced quickly and cost-effectively today.Better slides in PDF form become less attractive as products. This shifts focus to interpretation, governance, ethics, and the ability to transform scenarios into decisions. 2. 𝗚𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗶𝗻, 𝗴𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗼𝘂𝘁: 𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗔𝗜 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵. The real scarcity isn't text production - it's human ability to decide what's relevant. Foresight competence is shifting heavily toward research design: perspectives, source selection, explicit exclusions, ethics. 3. 𝗧𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗶𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲. Scenarios that remain on slides rarely change behavior through analytical-narrative perfection alone. People need to experience, touch, and play through futures. We achieve this through worldbuilding, diegetic prototypes, or role-playing. 4. 𝗖𝗼-𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝘄𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆. Expert-only scenarios often end up in drawers. Ownership emerges when decision-makers are actively involved. Advisory foresight teams must clarify access design, governance rules, and roles. While scenarios become cheaper at a certain quality level, futures work can become more human, deeper, and more impactful - if we prioritize input quality, tangibility, experiments, and co-creation. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝘂𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. PS: Who has experience with scenario-based experiments or wants to spontaneously share an idea for an experiment that can be implemented quickly? I'd love to collect corresponding tactics and potentially compile them again. Francis Wade, Wendy Schultz, Cécile Cremer, Mike Jackson, Karin Lange, Prof. Dr. Kerstin Cuhls, Vinny Nijhon, Scott Smith, Naomi Pollard, Andrew Staines, PhD, Dave Snowden, Dan KREUGER, Mirkka Schaller, PhD, James Clampett, Cate Turner, Anna Robbins...

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝗳 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲? 🌚 If you’ve been following my FP&A posts, you’ll notice a deliberate focus on topics that guide your 2025 business planning and budgeting. By now, all things being equal, you should have rounded up or be close to rounding up your preliminary forecasts. (If you haven’t started yet, I’m sending you love and light, dear 🥱 . Start soon, though—it’s already late in the game!) Now, if you’ve completed your preliminary 2025 numbers, it’s time to take it to the next level: layering in Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis. These are the “little things” that separate great FP&A analysts from the rest. I can personally attest to how much of a game-changer they’ve been for me—since incorporating them into my forecasts, I’m rarely caught off guard. I know the curveballs to expect, and I’m able to help decision-makers plan with confidence. That’s the kind of FP&A professional you want to be. If you’ve ever been asked, “What happens if sales drop by 10% and costs rise by 15%?” or “What if interest rates hit the roof?” or “What happens if the Naira depreciates beyond ₦2,000/US$1?” you know the struggle. That’s where Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis step in as your go-to tools. Here’s a quick way to understand them: Scenario Analysis: Big picture—“What if multiple things change?” Sensitivity Analysis: Focused Lens—"How does this one factor impact us?” A mistake I often see also is treating these analyses as mutually exclusive. They’re not! Using both gives you a balanced, holistic view and prepares you for almost anything. Here's how to use both effectively: 1. Start with Sensitivity: Identify your most sensitive drivers—the variables that significantly impact your outcomes. Is it FX rates? Raw material prices? Workforce costs? Test those first. 2. Move to Scenarios: Build 2-3 compelling scenarios incorporating those sensitive variables. Example: >> Base Case: Inflation in Nigeria stays between 30% - 33% in 2025 and Naira trades at ₦1800/US$1 >> Optimistic/Best Case: Inflation in Nigeria scales back to single digit and Naira appreciates back to ₦400/US$1 >> Pessimistic/Worst Case: Inflation in Nigeria go north of 40%, and Naira depreciates by more than ₦3,500/US$1 (God forbid abeg! 😭 ) 3. Link to Actions: Scenarios and sensitivity analyses are meaningless without clear action points. Use your insights to plan. For instance, if FX volatility spikes, what’s your hedge plan? If costs rise, where can you cut? Incorporate these into your 2025 budget—not just as good practice but as a way to stand out. I'd also love to hear from you: what scenarios have you built into your forecasts? P.S. This topic is one of my go-to interview icebreakers when assessing candidates! Now you know... 🚶♀️ #FPA #FPATuesday #Budgeting #ScenarioAnalysis #SensitivityAnalysis #2025Planning

Forget Strategic Planning. The Future Demands Something Different. At dinner recently, a friend mentioned that her organization was deep in a strategic planning process. My ears perked up. Does it involve scenario planning? I asked. Yes, she said. I hadn’t realized I was holding my breath until I exhaled. I was genuinely concerned for her. Today's unpredictability makes relying on a long-term plan very risky. I used to help organizations develop strategic plans. Back then, a solid 5 - or 10-year roadmap felt like a responsible way to navigate the future. Today, I’d give those same organizations very different advice: There is no more business as usual. Stop planning for “the future” and start preparing for multiple possible futures. So how do we lead in an era of chaos and disruption?  📉 New tariffs imposed and markets decline immediately. ⚖️ Government “efficencies” lead to programs stopping overnight. 🌍 Climate disasters accelerate, displacing communities and reshaping economies. We prepare. ✅ Scenario Planning: Don’t bet on one version of the future—map out multiple possibilities and build flexibility into your approach. ✅ Build Agility as a Core Competency: Organizations that can pivot quickly will outlast those clinging to outdated strategies. ✅ Strengthen Emotional Resilience: Leaders must be equipped to navigate disappointment, disruption, and conflict—not just operational challenges. The organizations that survive and thrive will be the ones that train for uncertainty instead of pretending they can control it. Are you preparing for multiple futures, or just hoping your plan holds?