Tool#4 - Argument Boxes

* This is an excerpt from the book Machine Learning Product Manager: 10 Tools to Jumpstart your Career*

Product Managers build products via arguments. You are constructing and navigating a series of arguments in every meeting you attend and every document you present. The product that you are building is a result of that invisible argument equation. You can only deliver results through cross-team alignment and collaboration. You use arguments to persuade others to align and collaborate. Therefore, you must learn to build effective arguments. Building an argument should be your fundamental superpower.

To make effective arguments, you need to build a thorough support structure for each key claim. The Toulmin Method allows you to build a strong logical foundation for arguments. First proposed by author Stephen Toulmin in The Uses of Argument (1958), the Toulmin Method emphasizes a model to develop ideas and organize them.

The Argument Box, improves your persuasive prowess by providing an organizational structure that your audience will perceive as both logical and easy to parse. For example, in a weekly business review meeting with the director of your business unit, how would you communicate why your product sales are down 40 percent? You can quickly prepare a clear and logical response, before or during the meeting, in the following steps: 

1. In the top left corner of a box, write the key question for the context or situation you are in. This step helps you be mindful of the reality you are in. 
2. Start bottom up by gathering a list of evidence or hypotheses. 
3. Formulate the claim in the right box. 
4. In the middle box, bridge evidence to claim with a generic statement. 
5. When answering the question verbally, start with the claim, followed by evidence, and warrant. In other words, answer top down. 

Using argument boxes, you might end up with the argument model like below.  

Translate your model into a narrative as follows: (Claim) The product sales are down 40 percent week over week because (Evidence) our competitor added a new product at a lower price point that competes for the same customer. We haven't seen any significant change in the market conditions. (Warrant) According to the consumer reports, competitor’s revenue increased by 30 percent during the same time. (Next Steps) I will email you a detailed report once we finish the deep dive into the situation by end of the day.  

This 127 page book provides 10 tools with easy-to-understand graphics and examples. ML PMs are in great demand because data is everywhere and companies need PMs who can build intelligent data driven products. This is the book I wished I had when I started as an ML PM at Amazon.