Indecision is a Decision

Indecision is a decision.

Vladimir Putin got the message. Do whatever you want within the borders of Ukraine, there will be no consequences. Yes, economic sanctions were put in place, but as a deterrence, they failed. Tough words delivered by the Vice President at the Munich Security Conference had no bearing on Putin’s decision-making process. What did, and continues to have a bearing are the words President Biden continues to utter, "Let me be clear. Our forces are not engaged and will not engage in conflict with Russian forces in Ukraine." This green lighted the invasion, and gave him carte blanche to do whatever he deems necessary to conquer the country. 

Recent examples include: (1) the kidnapping of the Major of the Ukrainian city of Melitopol; (2) targeting of humanitarian assistance convoys bringing food and medical supplies in from the west, (3) targeting hospitals, specifically the bombing of the Maternity and Children’s Hospital in Mariupol, along with the cancer hospital and several residential buildings in the southern city of Mykolaiv; and (4) and the targeting of airfields in western Ukraine.

And our response? Removal from the Most Favored Nation list. Economic sanctions didn’t deterred aggression prior to the invasion, and they will have no impact on current Russian operations in Ukraine. They may; however, contribute to the increase in destruction of the country and wholesale slaughter of innocent civilians. Putin is already committed – he’s ‘all in.’ The answer can’t be double down, more of the same. Einstein had a theory on that. We need that ‘big stick’ President Theodore Roosevelt spoke of in 1903. We need a General Patton.

I’m sorry, that’s not a decision, that’s a failure to address the situation in Ukraine with zero action that will impact Putin’s operations.  That only guarantees more dead Ukrainians. I’ll say it again, the message sent to Putin is clear - do whatever you want within the borders of Ukraine.

So, what’s next in the ‘no consequence zone?” Reports of a mosque bombing in Mariupol, where 80 civilians, including Turks, sought refuge. The significance? It will become a Russian propaganda tool to recruit foreign fighters from the Middle East. Recent reporting suggests Russia is recruiting upwards to 16,000 fighters[1]. News of the Ukrainian government targeting mosques and Muslims could validate their call to arms to defend Islam. These same foreign fighters will be used to fight the urban fight that is coming. Putin can’t afford to take any more Russian conscript causalities, and he won’t commit his elite fighters; therefore, he’ll turn to these mercenaries. And with these mercenaries, will come a new level of atrocities. The possible introduction of chemical munitions in Ukraine is becoming increasingly likely; Soldiers have been observed with chemical suits. The President’s inability to draw a line in the sand or establish a red line on this issue, again, sends a message to Putin. The ‘severe consequences’ the President speaks of, have zero impact on Putin’s decision-making cycle.

And it’s just a matter of time before Russia locates the transfer points for the lethal aide coming from the West, and targets them – on NATO soil. They’ll claim it’s a defensive strike – not aggression against NATO.

Indecision. But at one time, we had a decision, it was called the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances[2], and the United States signed the document of 5 December 1994. The memorandum prohibited the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. As a result of other agreements and the memorandum, between 1993 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. Picking and choosing which obligations you’ll enforce is bad policy. The United States is going to have trust issues.

Let’s be honest with ourselves, the President is not leading anything; rather, he is being led. His need to avoid contact and not risk a Third World War is literally killing thousands of Ukrainians. The stark reality is – when Putin conquers Ukraine, he will become our problem. There is a serious calcium deficiency in Washington, DC. It begins at the White House, and has spread to Foggy Bottom and the Pentagon.

The President often likes to use to phrase ‘being on the right side of history.’ In this case, the right to self-determination, sovereignty and freedom; the values of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.  Those are our values. Americans have shed blood to earn them, and keep them. We use to defend those values; we use to be the guardians of Democracy. That’s the right side of history Mr. President.

[1] Ukraine war: Putin recruiting 16,000 foreign volunteers to join fight (yahoo.com)

[2] The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances comprises three identical political agreements signed at the OSCE conference in Budapest, Hungary on 5 December 1994 to provide security assurances by its signatories relating to the accession of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The memorandum was originally signed by three nuclear powers: the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States. China and France gave somewhat weaker individual assurances in separate documents.[1] Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances - Wikipedia