The Putin Security Blanket

Jon Sweet

Published Apr 21, 2022

As Russian President Vladimir Putin’s conventional forces flounder in the Ukraine, he is busy flexing the only strength he has left – the nuclear wildcard. He’s scared, and feels the need to continuously remind the United States and NATO he has nuclear weapons, keeping them at arm’s length as he systematically destroys Ukraine. And to that measure, its worked, limiting their options to equip, train and sustain the Ukrainian military from the sanctuary of NATO territory.

Russia’s Defense Ministry announced on 20 April that it conducted the first test launch of its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile – a nuclear weapon. Putin stated that "This truly unique weapon will strengthen the combat potential of our armed forces, reliably ensure Russia's security from external threats and provide food for thought for those who, in the heat of frenzied aggressive rhetoric, try to threaten our country,"[1]

So really, more of the same.

As I laid out in the article I wrote for The Hill this morning, “How many times can Putin threaten nuclear escalation,”[2] Putin was seen with the Russian version of the ‘nuclear football’ while attending the funeral of ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky,[3] and dispatched his Deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, to threaten potential nuclear escalation when Sweden and Finland continued to express their aspirations to join NATO.[4]

It’s called escalating the conflict into the nuclear domain in order to de-escalate.[5] Fortunately, it’s been limited to verbal threats, strategic messaging, and invasions of airspace. Recall at the onset of the invasion he threatened, ‘To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside – if you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history.’[6] On 27 February, three days after the invasion, Putin raised the alert status for his nuclear forces to "special regime of combat duty,"[7] then on 2 March, two Russian SU-27 and two SU-24 fighter jets violated Swedish airspace.[8]

And when the Biden Administration announced another $800 million in security assistance for Ukraine on 13 April, including artillery, coastal defense drones, anti-aircraft and anti-tank armored vehicles, and Mi-17 helicopters, the response was predictable, a warning that there could be "unpredictable consequences" if they continue to send Ukraine "sensitive" weapons as it prepares to launch a second offensive into eastern Ukraine.[9] Unpredictable consequences = nuclear option.

The U.S. used to have a doctrine in the 80’s called Mutual Assured Destruction. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian had that in mind when he said, “I think that Vladimir Putin must also understand that the Atlantic alliance is a nuclear alliance."[10] Its about time someone in the Biden Administration echoed that thought.

Remember the Peanuts (AKA Charlie Brown)? Remember Linus van Pelt and his blanket? The nuclear wildcard has become Putin’s security blanket. His current predicament reminds me of the song by Jackson Browne back in the 70s called ‘Running on Empty.”

[1] Russia tests new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile in what Putin hails as ‘truly unique weapon’ | Fox News

[2] How many times can Putin threaten nuclear escalation? | The Hill