"False Spring" Or A Reason For Hope?

With January and MLK Day in our rearview mirrors, as a firm we observed the first uptick in hiring and overall activity in 2026 shortly after that first yearly holiday, which has been a modest annual barometer for the firm for almost twenty years.  Now that February is here, President's Day is a upon us; we are anticipating another meaningful uptick in hiring in the banking vertical through Mid-March, where we trust after bonus season wraps, things will get really crazy relative to hiring.  Some will call that blind optimism, but the historical data points are there to support it.  

We are admittedly dealing with a whole slew of external factors...geopolitical considerations with tariffs, continued deregulation in banking, interest rates remaining high relative to where they have been over the past fifteen years, a frenzy of bank M&A activity, and of course the impact of AI on banking, (the known/unknown efficiencies it will create internally both with reporting and externally with overall hiring.)

This Winter has been unseasonably cold in the Upper Midwest since Thanksgiving.  It's been brutal.  However, we have gotten some remarkable, unseasonably warm weather since late last week through this weekend into this week.  Many will tell you it's easier to get out of bed, go to work, and go for a walk. To smile at a passerby or even hold a door for someone at the grocery store.  The energy is different; the vibe is totally different.  It's one of hope and optimism.  Almost a 'knowing' that we've weathered the storm together.  It didn't take much; it was just a nudge of good weather. 

Prognosticators warn that this is simply a "False Spring" and more bad weather is on the way for the Upper Midwest.  (A good reminder that there is always someone there wanting to steal your joy.)  But to be honest, I am not concerned if we get into another deep freeze or a foot of snow in my neck of the woods, because I can now 'see' what's coming over the horizon.  Better days, warmer days, longer days, flowers and green grass.   The anticipated corollary in banking is that deregulation and lower interest rates are inevitably going to lead to growth.  Will AI factor in and slow down and/or change hiring or the need to hire?  Long-term, yes, but short term AI is like the Wild West right now and Community and Super Community Banks will more than likely be late adopters when it comes to AI technology....especially with in house technology relative to accounting & finance.

Specific to AI on the hiring side, I am seeing/hearing a lot of fatigue from candidates out there relative to AI...what jobs are real, what's not real relative to job postings?  Was that a human emailing me or a bot?  The early returns we are seeing as a firm is that people are starving for human interaction and encouragement and a nudge of optimism...especially on the hiring and job search side.    I have said it before and will say it again; the banking business and the recruiting business are people businesses, and there is only so much technology will do to change that.  Picking up the phone and talking to a person and getting inside of their heart about their career desires will always be paramount to success in this business. 

We are looking forward to a great Spring and even better Summer as a firm in helping bless clients and individuals find their next career success.  No time for False Springs here.   You can't convince me that better times in banking aren't already on their way here.