Updated Lessons Learned from Technological Change in the War in Ukraine. In February 2024, in an article published in the Belgian magazine Knack, I argued that the war in Ukraine would become the first true data-conflict of the modern era. Nearly two years later, that prediction has clearly materialised. Data, how it is collected, processed, shared, protected, and acted upon, has become a central determinant of military effectiveness. What the war now demonstrates is not just rapid technological adaptation, but a deeper shift in how modern warfare is organised, sustained, and learned. Several early lessons turned into structural realities. 1. Warfare Has Become Iterative Modern war no longer follows fixed capability cycles. Advantage comes from continuous adjustment under combat conditions. Ukraine has connected frontline feedback directly to software updates, production changes, and redeployment. Learning speed now matters more than initial technological advantage. 2. Attrition Is the Baseline High loss rates of drones, sensors, and digital systems are now normal. Operational effectiveness depends on the ability to replace and regenerate capabilities, not on preserving individual platforms. 3. Data, Software, and Connectivity Drive Combat Power Operational advantage increasingly comes from fast sensor-to-shooter loops and resilient digital infrastructure. Ukraine’s use of cloud services has enabled battlefield data to be stored, processed, and shared across dispersed units. At the same time, Starlink has provided critical connectivity when terrestrial networks were disrupted, allowing command, targeting, and logistics functions to continue under fire. 4. Civil-Military Boundaries Are Structurally Blurred Commercial providers of cloud services, satellite communications, and software have become permanent contributors to military effectiveness. This is no longer ad hoc wartime improvisation. 5. Industrial Capacity Is a Warfighting Variable Ukraine’s ability to localise production, adjust designs, and scale output has had direct battlefield impact. Industrial agility has compensated for material and numerical disadvantages. 6. Tactical Innovation Shapes Strategy Frontline units are driving innovation faster than doctrine can absorb it. Strategic and doctrinal adaptation increasingly follows battlefield experimentation. 7. Autonomy Advances Out of Necessity Autonomy has expanded due to communications disruption, time pressure, and manpower limits. Human-machine teaming, rather than full autonomy, has emerged as the dominant model. The war in Ukraine confirms that technological change in warfare is continuous. The defining feature of this conflict is not a single system, but the central role of data. For NATO, the principal risk is no longer technological surprise, but institutional rigidity in a war defined by constant adaptation.
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𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝐁𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐥𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝 𝐀𝐈 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐭𝐨 𝐀𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝-𝐅𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐌𝐨𝐯𝐞 Ukraine has announced a groundbreaking initiative to share real battlefield data with international partners and defense companies to train artificial intelligence models for autonomous military systems. Officials say the move marks the first program of its kind globally, allowing allies to use validated combat data to accelerate the development of AI-driven defense technologies. The new cooperation framework, approved this week, will connect Ukraine’s government, domestic defense firms, and foreign partners. According to Ukrainian officials, the program aims to increase the autonomy of drones and other combat platforms so they can detect targets faster, analyze battlefield conditions, and assist with real-time decision-making. At the center of the initiative is a specialized AI platform developed within Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense Center for Innovation and Development of Defense Technologies. The platform enables partners to train AI systems using real combat data while maintaining strict safeguards to prevent access to sensitive military networks such as Ukraine’s DELTA battlefield management system. Ukraine’s datasets already power DELTA, which uses neural networks to automatically identify ground and aerial targets in real time. Officials say the country has amassed millions of annotated images and videos from active combat operations, collected across thousands of missions involving numerous weapon systems and unit formations. Because the data is gathered directly from soldiers operating on the front lines, Ukraine’s database is considered one of the most operationally rich combat datasets ever assembled. Through the platform, allied governments and defense companies will be able to conduct joint analysis, train AI models, and co-develop new technologies using continuously updated battlefield information. The initiative is designed to benefit both sides: partners gain access to unique training data, while Ukraine accelerates the development of advanced autonomous systems for its own military operations. The program comes as countries worldwide race to integrate artificial intelligence into defense systems. Military experts say real-world data is the most critical factor in developing effective AI capabilities, as laboratory environments cannot replicate the complexity of modern warfare. Source: Defense News / Katie Livingstone / Diego Herrera Carcedo / Anadolu via Getty Images #Ukraine #ArtificialIntelligence #DroneWarfare #MilitaryTechnology #AutonomousSystems #DefenseInnovation #ModernWarfare #GlobalSecurity #DefenseNews
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Former CIA Director Petraeus: U.S. success in the Persian Gulf is a source of pride, but not a reason for complacency. Ukraine offers the key lessons: modern warfare involves drones, AI, and precision-strike capabilities. That is where the real challenges and the future of warfare lie. The battlefield in Ukraine is far more complex than the Persian Gulf. Drones are jammed, intercepted, and quickly replaced. This is a war on an industrial scale, where mass, resilience, and innovation are decisive. Without a conventional navy, Ukraine was able to use maritime drones to disable a significant portion of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and force it to retreat. Cheap unmanned systems can break traditional naval power. U.S. and Israeli operations in the Persian Gulf took place under much easier conditions, with control over communications and navigation. The enemy is unable to operate on a massive scale across all domains. Unlike in Ukraine, where a constant, large-scale, and adaptive war is underway. Lesson #1 — Volume is key. Ukraine produces them by the millions, up to 7 million a year. The U.S. doesn’t even come close to that scale. Lesson #2 — Speed of adaptation. The advantage goes to whoever learns faster. In Ukraine, drones are updated weekly, hardware every few weeks, and tactics change just as quickly. Lesson #3 — Resilience. Systems must operate under electronic warfare and without communication. This leads to autonomous drones and swarms capable of penetrating air defense systems. Even modern systems are already struggling; autonomous ones will pose an even greater challenge. The U.S. Army needs rapid and radical changes. New approaches must transform everything: from training to procurement. The U.S. demonstrated its strength in the Gulf; Ukraine is facing a real war under pressure. This should not lull us into complacency but rather heighten the sense of urgency. General David H. Petraeus, US Army (Ret.)
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Hey everyone, I’m excited to share my new report: "Does Ukraine Already Have Functional CJADC2 Technology?" It’s all about how Ukraine’s Delta system has evolved on the fly—shaped by what’s really happening on the battlefield—and what that means for the future of command-and-control systems like CJADC2. What makes this story stand out? Instead of building some grand, perfect solution behind closed doors, the team behind Delta started small, kept improving step by step, and baked in new tech (including AI) based on real-world feedback. The result? A system that’s flexible, connected, and quick to adapt to the ever-changing demands of modern warfare. For Western militaries and anyone keen on next-gen command-and-control approaches, there’s something to learn here. It’s not about chasing the latest shiny tools—it’s about how you bring everything together, respond to feedback fast, and work with allies. If you’re curious about the details and the bigger lessons, check out the full report. And let me know what you think—this is just the start of a conversation about what it means to build smarter, more responsive systems in today’s complex battle spaces. Read online here: https://lnkd.in/eCghneAb #defense #military #CJADC2 #commandandcontrol #Deltasystem #innovation #AI #interoperability #defensetech #modernwarfare #Ukraine #militarytechnology
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Currently thinking through social network theory and the strategic value of the U.S. Army Civil Affairs and Psychological Operations Command 38G program... Beyond individual expertise, the distinct value of U.S. Army Civil Affairs 38G Program can be best understood through social capital theory, which holds that trust-based relationships and professional networks function as real, mobilizable resources in moments of uncertainty and crisis (Bourdieu 1986; Putnam 2000). In wartime or rapid-onset emergencies, information, legitimacy, and cooperation move fastest through pre-existing, trusted networks, not formal bureaucratic channels. Embedded 38G officers convert social and professional capital into operational advantage by acting as brokers between military command structures and high-level civilian sectors across academia, industry, NGOs, and international institutions. Drawing on Mark Granovetter’s concept of the “strength of weak ties,” 38Gs enable commanders to rapidly access specialized knowledge and external capacity that would otherwise be unreachable or too slow to mobilize (Granovetter 1973). In this sense, the program enhances warfighting not merely by embedding expertise, but by embedding trust networks, expanding the Army’s reach, legitimacy, and freedom of maneuver at the speed modern conflict demands (FM 3-57; ADP 6-0). This isn’t a distraction from lethality. It is how commanders reduce strategic risk and win when firepower alone is not decisive. Image Credit: New York, N.Y. – Cultural Property Protection training at the Metropolitan Art Museum, June 3, 2023. (U.S. Army photo By Sgt 1st Class Gregory Williams/Released)
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Europe just showed what “learning from the front line” actually looks like. Two weeks after raising €180M at a €3B valuation, Germany’s Quantum Systems announced a joint venture with Frontline Robotics—a Ukrainian company we’ve backed at UA1 vc—to mass-produce battlefield-proven technology for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Not R&D. Not pilots. Industrial-scale production of systems already winning on the front line. This is a big deal. Ukraine has rewritten modern warfare through speed, iteration, and cost discipline. Germany is now pairing that battlefield innovation with industrial muscle—factories, automation, capital, and political will. This is what real defense cooperation looks like. And here’s the part the U.S. should be paying attention to: 🇺🇸 Our companies—and our Department of War —are still too slow to adopt systems that are already combat-validated. While Europe is scaling Ukrainian tech today, the U.S. risks being locked into decade-long procurement cycles built for a different war. Frontline’s drones are already used by 60+ Ukrainian units. Now they’ll be produced at scale, to NATO standards, with full lifecycle support. This isn’t charity. It’s deterrence—and a blueprint. The takeaway: • What we see today in Ukraine is the future of modern warfare • Allied industrial bases must integrate Ukrainian tech now • Speed matters more than perfection • Those who adapt fastest will define the next era of deterrence At UA1, this is exactly why we invest where the war is being fought—and why we focus on bridging Ukrainian innovation into allied production and procurement pathways. Re-industrialization is underway—but failure to integrate battlefield-proven Ukrainian tech risks eroding U.S. readiness for the next war. Mykyta Rozhkov Sven Kruck William McNulty Alexander Kamyshin
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NATO has seen the future of warfare through Ukrainian eyes. And it did not like what it saw. The Wall Street Journal recently published an article examining NATO exercises held in Estonia last May, involving 16,000 troops from 12 Allied nations. Ukrainian drone operators took part as well, some of whom arrived directly from the front lines. The exercise scenario simulated a high-intensity conflict on a “contested and congested” battlefield characterized by the mass employment of unmanned systems. In one phase, a team of approximately ten Ukrainians, acting as the opposing force, mock-destroyed 17 armored vehicles and conducted around 30 additional strikes within half a day. Another group, roughly 100 personnel strong, deployed more than 30 drones across an area of less than 10 square kilometers. Even then, the drone density was approximately half of what is currently observed on parts of the Ukrainian front. Exercise umpires reportedly compensated for this by counting some strikes as “double” to approximate real-world lethality. In effect, two battalions were rendered combat ineffective in a single day. For conventional NATO formations, the proliferation of drones presented not only a technical challenge but a conceptual one. Battle groups maneuvered and deployed in accordance with long-established procedures developed for environments defined by the “fog of war,” delayed detection, and the possibility of moving without being immediately observed. However, when such a concentration of unmanned systems operates overhead, the line of contact ceases to be a maneuver space and becomes an environment of persistent surveillance. Vehicles, tents, logistical columns, even individual platforms are rapidly detected. Any concentration of force can quickly become a target. Ukraine’s Delta battlefield management system enabled real-time integration of reconnaissance data, the generation of a shared operational picture, and the coordination of strikes with minimal procedural delay. Ukrainian units are accustomed to sharing large volumes of data rapidly across multiple levels of command. By contrast, Alliance structures often default to restricting access to sensitive information, formalizing approvals, and transmitting decisions vertically before acting. In a drone-saturated battlespace, such delays translate directly into loss of tempo and, ultimately, loss of assets. The exercise exposed a broader issue: significant portions of NATO doctrine, procedures, and even information-sharing culture are misaligned with the realities of contemporary warfare. One commander reportedly summarized the experience bluntly, in words quoted without embellishment in the article: “We are f—ed.” At least it was an exercise.
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The "Speed of War" isn't a buzzword—it's a requirement. Recent Warfighter Exercises (WFX) prove it: Our headquarters are drowning in data but starving for actionable insights. We are still trying to win modern battles with "digitized analog" processes—manual slides, fragmented chats, and disconnected trackers. Onebrief is changing the game. It’s not just another tool; it’s an AI-powered Operating System for Commanders to drive the planning process. ✅ Sync at Scale: One update to a "Card" (task/risk) flows instantly from Corps to Division. ✅ Kill the Drudgery: Automated workflows replace 20+ hours of manual slide deck maintenance per week. ✅ Unified Truth: Real-time data integration across NIPR, SIPR, and JWICS. ✅ Decide Faster: Transform complex data into actionable insights before the enemy can react. From the single services to Joint Staff, the shift toward data-centric C2 is here. Stop managing slides and start mastering the domain. The future of the battlefield belongs to those who can synthesize information the fastest. Are you ready? #DefenseTech #JADC2 #Onebrief #WFX #ModernWarfare #CommandAndControl #Innovation
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Ukraine is gathering unique, combat-tested knowledge on the battlefield. This war is already being fought with new technologies and new rules – especially with drones. Future conflicts will be impossible without them. Many countries are already updating their military strategies based on Ukraine’s experience. The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine understands this. That’s why we launched training courses for service members in the Army+ app. Out of eleven courses, the most popular ones focus on UAV operations and cyber resilience – two areas at the heart of modern warfare. Importantly, Ukraine is ready to share its knowledge with allies. No other country has the kind of real-world battlefield experience Ukraine is gaining right now – as highlighted by Larisa Braun in this timely and insightful piece for The Times: 🔗https://bit.ly/45oOhmT Grateful to see continued recognition of Ukraine’s expertise — and the value of learning from one another.
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