Understanding Changes in Tech Employment

Employment for 22–25-year-olds in AI-exposed roles has dropped up to 20% since late 2022... A new Stanford report released today reveals that AI is already reshaping entry-level employment, and the first signs are in the data. The report, "Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence," by Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar, and Ruyu Chen, is the first large-scale empirical signal that AI is actively disrupting the labor market, and doing so unevenly. Analyzing ADP payroll data from 25 million+ U.S. workers, the report finds: ⭐ Employment for 22–25-year-olds in AI-exposed roles has dropped up to 20% since late 2022 ⭐ The shift isn’t limited to tech; trends are visible across industries and across data sets ⭐ Wages have remained stable, suggesting employers are cutting roles, not pay ⭐ The impact is concentrated in roles where AI automates, not where it augments That last point matters. Jobs that involve codified knowledge, like junior software development or customer service, are more vulnerable. Jobs that depend on tacit knowledge, collaboration, and judgment... less so. The researchers call young professionals in these roles the canaries in the coal mine. They’re not just early victims of automation, they’re early signals. So, if your organization is scaling AI, the strategic question isn’t just what we can automate. It’s whether we are building systems that replace talent or elevate it. The opportunity is still ours to shape. But only if we’re intentional. The report is robust, and I recommend downloading and reading it. It makes several additional important points. Download the report here: http://bit.ly/45Ttgzo

Software Engineering Jobs Are Shrinking—Here’s How to Stay Ahead Software engineering job openings have dropped 35% in five years. Five years ago, companies were scrambling to hire developers. Tech salaries were skyrocketing, startups were growing fast, and it seemed like there were more job openings than engineers to fill them. Today? -Layoffs are hitting major tech firms. -Hiring freezes are becoming more common. -Junior devs are struggling to land their first role. So what changed? ✅ Overhiring During the Tech Boom – Many companies overestimated their long-term growth and hired aggressively. Now, they’re scaling back. ✅ AI & Automation – AI is helping companies do more with fewer developers. Some entry-level tasks that used to require a junior dev are now being handled by AI-assisted coding tools. ✅ Higher Expectations for Engineers – Companies aren’t just looking for people who can code—they want developers who understand business needs, think critically, and contribute beyond writing functions. But here’s the thing: Great developers will always be in demand. If you want to stay ahead in this new job market, here’s what you need to focus on: 🚀 Be More Than Just a Coder – Writing code isn’t enough. Companies want devs who can solve problems, optimize workflows, and understand the bigger picture. 📚 Learn High-Demand Skills – AI, cloud computing, DevOps, and cybersecurity are becoming essential. If you're only focused on web development, you might be limiting your opportunities. 💡 Build & Showcase Real Projects – A solid portfolio will set you apart. Employers want to see real-world problem-solving, not just another to-do list app. Open-source contributions, freelancing, and personal projects matter. 💬 Improve Your Communication Skills – The best devs don’t just write great code—they explain their ideas clearly, collaborate well, and document their work properly. If you can communicate complex ideas simply, you become invaluable. 📈 Be Adaptable – The job market is shifting. Remote work, contract jobs, and AI-assisted development are changing the landscape. The more flexible and open-minded you are, the better your chances. 💰 Look Beyond Traditional Tech Companies – Companies in finance, healthcare, and manufacturing are all hiring engineers. The biggest opportunities might be outside of big tech. Tech isn’t dying—it’s evolving. The question is: Are you evolving with it? What’s your strategy for staying competitive in today’s job market?

AI Is Redefining Entry-Level Tech Jobs, Not Eliminating Them Introduction Generative AI is reshaping early-career roles in technology, raising expectations rather than simply replacing workers. While anxiety around job losses is real, new evidence suggests the labor market is undergoing a structural realignment toward higher-level skills, AI-augmented roles, and faster on-the-job readiness. What the Data Shows • Entry-level hiring at the 15 largest tech firms fell 25 percent from 2023 to 2024. • U.S. programmer employment dropped 27.5 percent between 2023 and 2025. • In contrast, software developer roles declined only 0.3 percent, indicating a shift away from pure coding toward design and systems thinking. • Roles such as information security analyst and AI engineer are growing at double-digit rates. How Jobs Are Changing • AI is absorbing routine and isolated tasks, especially coding-heavy work. • Entry-level engineers are now expected to operate at a higher level from day one. • Modern software roles increasingly emphasize system design, lifecycle awareness, user needs, and cross-team collaboration. • AI proficiency is becoming an unwritten baseline expectation for new hires. Augmentation, Not Replacement • Sixty-one percent of employers say they are not replacing entry-level roles with AI. • Forty-one percent plan to augment these jobs with AI over the next five years. • AI is increasingly viewed as an exoskeleton for knowledge work, enhancing productivity rather than substituting judgment. Implications for Education and Training • Traditional “grunt work” is disappearing as a training pathway. • Employers prioritize demonstrated skills, applied experience, and industry exposure over grades alone. • Apprenticeships and experiential learning are emerging as viable models to close the experience gap. • AI can accelerate onboarding, but human problem-solving, communication, and relationship-building remain essential. Why This Matters The entry-level tech job is not vanishing; it is evolving upward. AI is compressing career timelines, forcing earlier mastery of higher-order skills. Organizations that stop investing in early talent risk hollowing out their future workforce. The long-term winners will be those who combine AI acceleration with deliberate human development. I share daily insights with 36,000+ followers across defense, tech, and policy. If this topic resonates, I invite you to connect and continue the conversation. Keith King https://lnkd.in/gHPvUttw

AI hasn’t wiped out jobs, but it’s rewriting how work gets done. Despite the headlines about tech layoffs and automation, fewer than 1% of global job cuts are actually due to AI. What’s really happening is a deep structural shift: companies are learning to grow without adding workers. This “white-collar recession” is changing who benefits and who’s left behind. So, what does this mean moving forward? Here's what we know now: • Most layoffs aren't driven by AI itself, but broader cost-cutting disguised as "tech transformation." • Firms are boosting output without expanding staff, prioritizing efficiency over headcount. • We're seeing a polarized labor market: high-value technical and low-wage service roles are expanding, while mid-level managerial positions shrink. • With the top 20% of earners driving nearly half of all spending, a slowdown among affluent consumers could ripple through sectors like luxury retail and travel. Bottom line: AI isn't eliminating work, it's evolving it. The winners will be companies that harness technology for long-term productivity gains while staying attuned to shifting consumption patterns among high-income households. How have you seen AI impact your workplace?

90,000 tech workers laid off in the first 97 days of 2026. Oracle cut 30,000 in a single day. Block cut 40% of its workforce. Atlassian cut 10%. The operating narrative for this is "re-founding." Airtable, Handshake, Atlassian, and Opendoor have all used the word publicly. Some have backed it with genuine product transformation. Others have used it as a more presentable explanation for right-sizing. More of these companies are framing their actions as an AI-oriented transformation. "Re-founding" carries weight because it borrows from the gravity of creation. It implies that this is not just a feature or version upgrade; this is existential. The question worth asking is whether this reallocation will produce a genuine transformation or whether the language of re-founding is simply providing a more palatable frame for what would have been called layoffs in any other era. Despite the optics, a real and necessary shift is happening in software right now. Building an AI-native company is fundamentally different from building a traditional SaaS company across every dimension: margins, product development, sales motion, pricing, and even what you look for in an executive team. The companies that understand this and rebuild accordingly will define the next decade. The companies that relabel their layoffs as "re-founding" and change nothing else will quietly disappear. This is also the Jevons Paradox playing out in real time. When AI lowers the unit cost of code, tech companies build more software, not less. This is leading to a shift in organisational design and in the dispersion of talent. A Harvard study tracking 62 million workers found that junior employment at AI-adopting firms drops 7.7-10% within six quarters. Senior technical employment keeps rising. A Stanford study found that developer employment for those aged 22 to 25 fell 20% from its 2022 peak, while those over 26 held steady. AI is not just replacing software engineers. It is reshaping who gets hired and at what level. Demand for software is increasing. What is changing is the type of software being built, the teams building it, and the business models sustaining it. Companies that understand this distinction will build stronger organisations. Companies that use "re-founding" as cover for hollowing out their talent pipeline are eating the seeds needed for their future harvests. In the end, the word re-founding is only as meaningful as its outcome. Does the company come out the other side with more relevant products, better unit economics, a clearer growth trajectory, and a reason for its customers to use it repeatedly? That is the only reason to endure the pain of a re-founding. What are you seeing in your operating environments today, and how do we respond to the gap between narratives and reality?

The percentage of 21-25 year olds at large public tech companies dropped from 15.0% to 6.7% in just 30 months—essentially cut in half Recent college graduates are struggling to find jobs, especially at public technology companies. A key likely culprit? AI tooling is disrupting many entry-level roles that have traditionally been attractive entry points into the tech labor force for new grads. _____________ 𝟮𝟭-𝘁𝗼-𝟮𝟱 𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗢𝗹𝗱𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝗣𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗰 𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗲𝘀: 𝟭𝟱.𝟬% → 𝟲.𝟳% 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟯𝟬 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 To understand this workforce shift, Pave examined the ages of 120,000+ employees at very large public technology companies connected to its database. At these firms, employees between the ages of 21 and 25 made up 15.0% of the workforce in January 2023. However, by July 2025, people in this age range only accounted for 6.7% of the workforce. _____________ 𝟮𝟭-𝘁𝗼-𝟮𝟱 𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗢𝗹𝗱𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗲𝘀: 𝟵.𝟯% → 𝟲.𝟳% 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟯𝟬 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 The story is similar, but less severe at private technology companies. Here, Pave examined 910,000+ employees at more than 8,200 private companies connected to its database. In January 2023, employees between the ages of 21 and 25 made up 9.3% of the workforce, and as of July 2025, this number was also down to 6.7%. _____________ 𝗔𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗔𝗴𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝗹𝗹 𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵 𝗘𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘆𝗲𝗲𝘀 𝗜𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗹𝘆 𝗜𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 As these shifts happen, the average age of the workforce is getting older. At large public technology companies, the average age of all employees increased from 34.3 years to 39.4 years between January 2023 and July 2025. And over the same timeframe, the average age of all employees at private technology companies grew from 35.1 years to 36.6 years. Is the shift in the labor force towards older, more experienced employees a temporary economic adjustment, or a permanent shift in how tech companies build their workforce? _____________ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗠𝗕𝗔 𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗱𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀? Getting an MBA from top programs like Harvard Business School used to feel like a sure bet for elite job placement. However, similar to new grads, MBAs are also struggling to find jobs. According to a March 3rd article published by Entrepreneur.com, “At Harvard Business School, the percentage of MBA students without a job offer three months after graduation nearly quadrupled from 4% of the graduating class in 2021 to 15% in 2024.” While AI may play a role, this trend likely reflects the same economic pressures affecting new grads: companies prioritizing experienced hires during uncertain times and focusing on “efficient growth”. _____________ Coming soon, we will take a look at specific job families that are rumored to be “AI replaceable” and assess if the hypotheses of disruption are fact or fiction (for now).

Tech Hiring in 2026: What Has Actually Changed? The tech hiring market in 2026 does not look like it did two years ago. Here’s what the data — and ground reality — is telling us 👇 📊 The Shift Is Not in Volume. It’s in Precision. In the US: Hiring has stabilized after two years of correction. But the type of hiring has changed. 👉 Fewer generalists 👉 More specialists with clearly defined impact areas Companies are no longer hiring broadly. They are hiring with intent. 🌍 India’s Talent Landscape Is Expanding Fast The shift in India is different — but deeply connected. Tier 2 cities are now producing high-quality technical talent that global teams are actively targeting. 👉 Limiting searches to Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Pune? You’re likely missing top-tier candidates. ⚡ 3 Key Shifts Every Recruiter Must Understand 1. Time-to-fill is rising for senior roles Even with leaner hiring, roles are taking longer. Why? ✔ Higher expectations ✔ More selective hiring managers ✔ Less compromise on quality 👉 The winning strategy: Build pipelines before the role opens. 2. Candidate expectations have evolved Top candidates now expect full transparency. If your process goes silent for more than 5 business days: 👉 You lose them 👉 Not to better offers — but to better communication 3. Contract & fractional hiring is now strategic This is no longer a backup plan. Companies are intentionally building: Hybrid teams Flexible workforce models Project-based expertise layers 🎯 The Real Shift for Recruiters The best recruiters today are not just filling roles. They are: ✔ Influencing hiring strategy ✔ Guiding decision-making ✔ Acting as talent advisors to the business 💡 In 2026, the value of a senior TA professional is not measured by volume… It’s measured by the quality of insight and counsel. Question: What trend is shaping your hiring market the most right now? #TechHiring #TalentAcquisition #RecruitmentTrends #FutureOfWork #HiringStrategy

Goodbye, $165,000 tech jobs? The brutal new reality for CS grads. For over a decade, students were told: learn to code, and you’ll land a six-figure tech job right out of college. Reality check: That promise is fading fast. Recent layoffs at Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Intel - plus AI tools that write code faster than junior engineers - have flipped the script. New computer science graduates are struggling to find even entry-level tech jobs. Some apply to thousands, get a handful of interviews, and end up with … Chipotle interviews instead. This isn’t a “tech bubble burst” story. It’s a systemic shift: * AI is automating the very jobs fresh grads used to fill. * Universities are just starting to teach AI skills. * Employers rely more on automated resume scanners, reducing human judgment. * Graduates feel “gaslit” by promises that no longer hold. What does this mean? If you’re in tech education, policy, or hiring, it’s time for brutal honesty and adaptation: ✅ Rethink what “tech jobs” mean beyond coding - tech sales, marketing, product, data, policy. ✅ Integrate AI literacy and human-centered skills like creativity and problem-solving in curricula. ✅ Build reskilling and career pivot support as part of the system, not just recruiting code monkeys. For graduates: don’t give up, but don’t rely on old scripts. Be flexible, learn AI tools, and explore adjacent roles where human skills still matter. The “golden ticket” is no longer guaranteed. But the tech ecosystem is evolving. We must evolve with it - or get left behind.

The tech job market looks contradictory right now. 1) Companies are laying off thousands of employees. 2) Those very companies are aggressively hiring fresh graduates. 3) And many freshers are still struggling to find jobs. How can all three be true at the same time? Because something deeper is happening. We are in the middle of a massive shift in how skills work. For decades, the model was simple: • Learn a skill in college • Apply that skill for years • Occasionally retrain when technology changes AI has completely broken this model. Today: • Skills expire faster • Roles evolve constantly • Tools change every few months Which is why companies are quietly doing two things at the same time: 1️⃣ Letting go of employees whose skills have frozen 2️⃣ Hiring freshers who can adapt faster Not because experienced professionals are less capable — but because reshaping deeply entrenched habits is often harder than shaping fresh ones. But there is an even bigger problem: - Corporate training itself is breaking. - The traditional model looks like this: Identify skill gaps → design training → run workshops → evaluate learning. Typical cycle: 3–6 months. - In the AI era, tools evolve every 2-4 weeks. By the time training ends, the workflows have already changed. Which means the real shift companies must make is this: From Training → To Continuous Learning Learning that is: • embedded in everyday work • contextual to each role • powered by AI assistants • shared through peer knowledge • delivered in micro-learning formats The organizations that thrive in the AI era will not be the ones with the most knowledge. They will be the ones that learn the fastest. This shift - and what it means for companies, employees, and fresh graduates - is something I explore in my latest article: “The Great Workplace Reset: Why Learning, Not Training, Will Define the Next Decade.” Here is the full article: https://lnkd.in/gawtdrq6 I also share why this topic has become a major focus area for me and why we are experimenting with new learning systems through MobiLearn. Because in the AI era, learning cannot remain an HR function. It has to become the central nervous system of the organization. And I am passionately building that LearningOS