WHY THE INCREASE IN “SILLY THINKING?”

We were recently asked to give our opinion on why some believe strongly in causal relationships for which there is no direct evidence. For example, “Swimming within 30 minutes of eating will cause cramps,” or “Vaccinating your child will cause autism,” or “Lightening never strikes twice in the same place.” Why are these statements which have no basis in fact frequently heard? Why are they sometimes repeated by those in positions of authority? What is the value in making a statement which, if believed, may increase the actual risk to the believer? If no “good” will come to the believer, why make these statements? What’s “in it” for those who hold such beliefs and how do we deal with them in the marketplace?

One explanation is direct and the other is indirect. The direct explanation is the Dunning-Kruger Effect. This is a cognitive bias which attempts to explain why some individuals adopt unsupportable points-of-view. The experimental data supporting the effect suggest that believers overestimate their own skill level, fail to recognize the genuine skill and expertise of others, or fail to recognize their own mistakes and lack of skill.

The other explanation is based on the similar phenomenon of magical thinking, or the belief in imaginary events or relationships. It is well-known that clinically depressed and often isolated individuals with feelings of powerlessness engage in magical thinking. Stress often increases the frequency of such thoughts. For example, the story of Cinderella is an example of mythologized magical thinking. In it, Cinderella replaces a hopeless powerless state of drudgery for one of competency and success. Does that mean that believers in magical thinking are hopelessly depressed or live in drudgery? No, but they likely share a common sense of powerlessness. For example, where else but in North Korea would Kim Jong-un claim to be able to control the weather, cure disease and make holes-in-one on demand?   Belief in such magical thinking is an acknowledgement of the power of the Respected Leader, thereby accruing power to the believer by association. But if this is the payoff for magical thinking in a totalitarian state – why does it occur in America?     

First of all, not all Americans practice magical thinking, in fact, not even the majority. So, what makes those who do believe differ from those who do not, the majority? It is likely that a feeling of powerlessness plays a role by endowing the believer with a sense of “gaining control” over the non-believer majority. The utility of such a belief is now clear – it endows the believer with a feeling of being more “in control” in times of stress. 

So, if these explanations give us some clues about “silly thinking,” what do we do about it? First, we should recognize that the value of such beliefs is the psychological payoff accrued to the believer not the value of the veracity of the belief. As such, denigration of the belief will only force the believer to cling more vehemently to their position in order to gain greater self-confidence and “authority” when stressed. How do we plan for the future knowing that silly thinking can derail logical and reasoned action? Our first suggestion is to surface the presence of silly thinking, rather than just assuming it doesn’t exist, then, develop a plan to deal with it effectively. Our method of Behavioral Design does just that whether the goal is to introduce a new product or a new internal work process. Finally, we would suggest that once we understand what is actually causing silly thinking, we remember that each of us has, at one time or another, espoused an unsupportable point-of-view. Therefore, we should be patient with those who do it now.

Let us know if you would like to learn more about how Behavioral Design can help you identify and deal with silly thinking in this utterly new business environment.   

Tim Gohmann Co-founder and Chief Science Officer 805.405.5420 | tim@behavioralsciencelab.com Behavioral Science Lab, LLC 500 West Second Street, 19th Floor, Austin, Texas 78701 USA  www.behavioralsciencelab.com