Whisper it...optimists and pessimists required.

Having read some interesting articles on counter-intuitive leadership traits of late, and seeing the usually cautious Theresa May taking a bad gamble on the election, I would like to revisit optimism and pessimism, to see if some lessons can be learned from recent events.

Your personality is shaped and formed in childhood and adolescence and it is difficult to fundamentally change it. Since optimism and pessimism are core features of your personality, the traditional argument goes that you are either an optimist or a pessimist, see the glass as half full or half empty and that’s just the way it is.

This binary view ignores the fact that personality traits exist along a continuum and are a question of degree, rather than either/or. As resourceful human beings we are quite capable of adjusting our outlook, overriding our habitual responses and even (if the neuroscientists are to be believed) modifying the wiring of our brains over time. Far from being fixed personality types, optimism and pessimism are more ‘plastic’ than we have hitherto believed and we can do something about it.

On many occasions I have seen people turn their lives and careers around and adopt a more forward looking, positive outlook. You have probably seen it too and may have been on a similar journey yourself. If so, you will know that It requires a great deal of hard work and determination and may feel like turning around an oil-tanker. The secret lies in getting into good habits and modifying your explanatory style for the better. What do I mean by explanatory style?

‘Your habitual way of explaining bad events ... a habit of thought learned in childhood and adolescence, which stems directly from your view of your place in the world – whether you think you are valuable and deserving, or worthless and hopeless. It is the hallmark of whether you are an optimist or a pessimist’

Martin Seligman

I can certainly vouch for the fact that with the right attitude and support, you can learn to be more optimistic and forward looking. But, to ask a slightly different question do optimism and pessimism always equate to ‘good’ and ‘bad’ personality types? My answer is no, and here’s why.

Having worked with leaders of all kinds over many years, I recognise that it is necessary to have optimistic leaders, particularly in certain business situations. A CEO of a high growth business or headmaster of an under-performing school are two obvious examples. People generally respond better to optimists and are more likely to follow and be inspired by them. In these situations optimism, along with vision, energy and resilience will be necessary, if not sufficient qualities for success. 

Furthermore optimism and pessimism can be more than a little self-fulfilling. In the words of Henry Ford;

‘If you believe that you can, or believe that you can’t, then you are right’

So if optimists are more attractive to others and tend to make better leaders, what is the case in favour of a more pessimistic approach?

Firstly, there are professions and situations which lend themselves better to these qualities. For example Daniel Kahneman in ‘Thinking Fast and Slow’ points out that it is generally preferable that Airline Pilots are pessimists who are more likely to mitigate risks, rather than optimists who may miss them altogether.

My instinct tells me that I would rather fly with a mildly cautious or pessimistic pilot rather than extremely optimistic one and therefore I buy Kahniman’s view. That he describes himself as ‘somewhat pessimistic’ AND is the winner of a Nobel Prize for Economics underscores the point. Pessimists are able to excel and pessimism may lend itself to better performance in certain situations and contexts. 

If we follow Kahneman’s logic then certain business roles maybe performed as well or better by mild pessimists than optimists. For example Finance, Compliance, Legal and positions for which a core responsibility is to mitigate risk may benefit from someone who is capable of taking a ‘worst case scenario’ view. Optimists are less likely to do this as a matter of course. Extreme optimists may not do it at all and these people in leadership positions may require more cautious individuals as foils, to mitigate their wilder excesses. This is typical of many CEO/FD relationships for example.

Effective leadership is contextual and there may be certain times and certain business situations in which a wild optimist is the worst profile of all. A CEO client once said to me that ‘ it is better to go off a cliff at 100 mph rather than to crawl over it’ and I took his point. It is the live fast- die young kind of philosophy. 

Thankfully his judgement was generally sound but history proves that optimists often do fly off a cliff, precisely because they tend to be more cavalier. Nemesis follows Hubris and David Cameron and Theresa May's decisions to call a referendum and a general election respectively reflect the downsides of such risk taking. For the usually cautious May this has been a painful gamble, and sometimes you only get one chance to get these big decisions right,

Judgement is the key mediator here and just as the wise leader will know when to be bold, optimistic and opportunistic, so he or she will know when to step back and look at the risks. History is not always kind to otherwise effective leaders who make bad judgement calls, as May and Blair before her may find out. If a politicians career is all about legacy then a degree of caution and 'handle with care' maybe wise counsel. This outlook is more likely to come with a pessimistic mindset.

Leaders today need to be increasingly self-aware and adaptive and this includes a preparedness to modify your approach on a situational basis. Having the humility to listen to the advice of others will help to mitigate your own cognitive biases. Perhaps Theresa May would have benefited from a wider Cabinet perspective, and a keener instinct for the times..

To optimists, know when to reign yourselves in and to accept that the worst may actually happen, as history so often proves. To pessimists, know when to be more positive and forward looking or you may fail to exploit opportunities, or (worse) you might miss them altogether. 

Finally, if an Ambivert is someone who sits in the middle of extrovert-introvert continuum, what do we call the person who is in the middle of optimist and pessimist? Realist perhaps? Do let me know your thoughts on this and other themes raised in this article..

David Head is a coach and mentor with Accelerating Experience. david.head@acceleratingexperience.com