The Time Frame for Significant Fleet Electrification

In recent years we have been driven by a growing anxiety over the uncertainty concerning the expected development of electric mobility. With the key questions being “How much?” and “When?”. When we talk about electric vehicles it is everybody’s expectation that these may eventually replace conventional ones without affecting our habits. With this I do not just mean our private comfort zone but our work habits and in particular logistics. In the interest of expediency, I will avoid discussing just how much we may have to curb our appetite. I can however safely state that our work and living environment will change.

We are accustomed to travel ranges of up to 1000 km and “recharging” times of three minutes. Thus our expectations are based on fossil-based fuel assets and our infrastructure is shaped accordingly. I will skip discussion of requirements concerning charging infrastructure as well as electricity supply. For some thoughts on charging infrastructure please see my article “Electric Vehicles: The Goal of Market Dominance” (https://www.garudax.id/pulse/electric-vehicles-goal-market-dominance-daniel-klein/). Here I would like to look at the technical limitations of lithium-ion batteries.

Loads of time and energy have been spent trying to come up with a battery that has the same characteristics as a fuel tank in terms of energy density in proportion to volume and weight while also being comparable in charging and de-charging times. We are still far off. The best we have achieved so far (and quite a while ago) have been lithium-ion batteries, with more promising technologies still languishing seemingly aimlessly in research labs around the world. It is therefore a valid assumption that we will be working with the technical specifications of lithium-ion batteries for a number of years to come.

What does this mean?

This implies that urban areas will grow, mass transportation will increase and the demand for long distance individual travel will be reduced. Distribution chains might become less centralised in urban areas and travelling to “one stop” shopping destinations may reduce. Road-based logistics could revolve around short to medium ranges while long hauls would then likely find its way back onto rail leading to even further growth of urban areas. In brief it means that no matter which elements of the scenario are applied, our infrastructure will have to adapt to the current battery standard and so will our habits. Both are hard to change, but they definitely do change.

In the passenger car market the potential share for purely battery electric vehicles can be reasonably assumed at a maximum of some 38% to 40%. With vehicles placed mostly in the segments ranging from the AA to B.

Far more than in commercial traffic, passenger traffic is very much influenced by individuals’ emotions, such as anxiety or comfort depending on whether we drop an old or take on a new habit. Switching from a known environment to an unknown triggers our innate sense of fright. Thus considering generational change (roughly 30 years) becomes very relevant when trying to determine how long the transition period will take.

Turning back towards the aspect of infrastructure, roads, bridges, buildings have a “life expectancy” as well. It is mostly dependant on the assumptions made for financial efficiency when built. Broadly speaking, when made out of concrete, built structures are on average laid out for some 40 to 50 years of utilisation before being renovated, modernized or torn down and rebuilt.

As the transition is continuous, for the purposes of projection we can place the current stage of development at half-value time. This means we are looking at some 15 to 20 years ahead for significant changes both in habit and infrastructure to take place. Reducing my forecast to 10 years’ time in order to reduce my margin of error while still landing some 50% above typical corporate strategic planning, and limiting my analysis to the European market, I can compute that the fleet share of purely battery electric vehicles will range between 9% and 13%.

The most important assumption I have made with the above is that regulators will limit themselves to introducing incentives for electric vehicles rather than prohibiting conventional ones. Essentially, I assume a market that is based on an incentivised market response, which is likely for all countries with large vehicle fleets.

The key message is that this transformation can be tackled by means of regular planning. It is not as disruptive or unpredictable as it may have seems in recent years. I therefore encourage manufacturers, suppliers and developers to refrain from emergency-driven impulsive reactions.