Saving Baseball

Can Anyone Save Baseball?

By Daniel P. Collins

The negotiations between Major League Baseball and its players union over restarting the 2020 season has been like watching a slow-motion car crash from a distance.

You can see what is happening and what is about to happen, but no one seems willing to do anything about it.

The funny thing is that it is not too late. There is a consensus that the best case scenario would be to have a grand reopening of baseball on the Fourth of July weekend, which would allow for an 80+ game season (July 4 is roughly the half-point of the 162-game season).

There is also a consensus that the owners and players have dithered too long for that to still be possible because the need for at least some sort of a mini spring-type training.

Before moving to the hard part— money— let’s be clear, it’s not too late. The idea that professional athletes who play a six-month season need several weeks to get in shape and prepare for the season is just silly. One-week is enough. Perhaps more to get starting pitchers up to speed, but both sides have already agreed to extend rosters.

An agreement by the end of this week would allow enough time to prepare for a weekend series beginning Friday July 3 highlighted by match-ups of the most compelling rivalries: Cubs vs. Cardinals, Yankees vs. Red Sox and Dodgers vs. Giants etc.

That would allow for a season of 82 games, half a regular season plus one game. Perfect! Players have already had half a spring training and pitchers can pitch anywhere to get their arms ready—as I mentioned earlier, the idea of a multi-week spring training for players who have spent most of their lifetimes playing the game, is downright silly. Its baseball, it’s not that complicated.

Just heard of a potential deal that would allow for a 60-game season that would start mid-July. Not good enough and not necessary—it’s all about the flat rate the owners want to pay, hence the delay and need for a short season (read on)>

The Hard Part

The hard part is the money. Players and owners agreed in March to a pro-rata per game salary once they resume the season. There was some added language having to do with the terms of returning. The obvious sticking point is that games, at least at the start will not have fans. That means no ticket sales, no bear sales, less value for in-park advertising. Owners had some clause in the March agreement regarding that but actual details have been hard to come by. And the players association have taken advantage of the owners’ short-sightedness. The bottom line, which has been obvious from the start, is that the last restriction that would be lifted as part of social distancing is attendance at professional sporting events where multiple thousands of people are together in a confined space. So, if the owners were not as explicit as they should have been, that is their fault, but some measure should be made for the fact that roughly 40% plus of their revenues will not be there.

This is not to side with the owners, it is acknowledging reality. The big question is how much? Let’s say an additional 10% to 20% with no reduction below the mandated league minimum. To offset half salary and a 20% additional cut (this level needs to be negotiated) the league will share 15% to 25% of TV revenue from is expanded playoffs. That would offset any additional cut to player revenue and have them share for revenue produced from playoffs—putting them on same team. There is one more kicker the owners can offer (see kicker below).

If they can come to some agreement, they can put the ugliness aside and blame others (media) for misperception over their joint tone deafness. If not, they will collectively lose more than either side will give up if an agreement occurs.

Who Makes the Demand

What is needed is some individual or group of individuals to talk straight to both sides and make clear they both will lose more if this goes beyond this week: A president, or some unimpeachable sources. Perhaps a letter from all living members of the Baseball Hall of Fame with a threat to no longer allow baseball to use their images (I understand that this may not be legally viable, but members of the media who agree could help and it would hold value).

A letter from 100+ existing hall of famers—including the biggest names in the game as well as broadcasters like Vince Scully demanding an immediate resolution (along with threats of not allowing their images, video, voices etc.) would hold sway and perhaps shock them into action.

The Kicker

There is one more kicker that ownership could throw in. While we are talking about players accepting a pro-rated salary plus, it would be good to remember just how extraordinary this season is. Pro-rata salaries are just a measuring stick for how they could accept less money given this season’s unprecedented circumstances. Could a final incentive be to push all contract out a year? For example, if a player went into the 2020 season with a five-year contract worth $50 million, they could simply come to an agreement on 2020 and rule that players five-year $50 million contract begins in 2021. Push all contracts forward by one year. Some players may retire, others may not want to be held to a contract if their value has grown so they could have the option of turning down that option.

The Bottom Line

The bottom line is that both sides will lose more if this is not ended and ended quick. Come to a basic agreement by this weekend and make a schedule, with details to be worked out. Start the season on Friday July 3rd.

The near-agreement announced yesterday is progress, but still exemplifies their tone deafness. Baseball needs at least a half-season and the Fourth of July. July 4th is for baseball, not spring training. GET IT TOGETHER!

That would be a win win for both sides, regardless of the details. They need to be reminded that anything else: No season or a 50-game season allowing owners to pay the pro-rata figure they want and bank on TV revenue from an expanded playoff in the midst of football season is a lose lose.