The Road Ahead.

Prediction of any sort is always a risky game.

As we experience the inevitable (and hopeful) waning of the pandemic, we can start to see the trends that will shape industries as we travel the road ahead. Let’s not call it a year, that’s too arbitrary, but rather the 'next phase' – that will likely play out over the next 12-24 months.

COVID’s long tail will wag, and strike.

Five years after hurricane Katrina, the most referenced topic on chat groups in New Orleans was still ‘the flood’.

While the ongoing pandemic will wane, the economic long tail will cause impact for several years. Volatility, erratic industry recovery, and patchy economic activity will persist (supply chain issues, inflation). Large capital reserves will flow into digitization at scale, tech innovation, and the new markets they will create.

Some industries are forever changed.

More by force than design, some industries, business models and consumer behaviors have changed forever. 

In retail, the polarization between extreme convenience (think Amazon) and premium consumer experience is here to stay, and will intensify.

Healthcare will continue the march towards a digital future. As operators realize the productivity and profit gains that flow from digitization, it will also accelerate. Regulation and oversight may act as a handbrake, but not for long. The market forces are just too strong.

Education, specifically Higher Education, will likely lag. Digitization of education delivery has the potential to unlock access, prosperity, and opportunity at a scale not seen in the last hundred years. The future leaders of this sector will be those that use technology to expand reach and access, not those who remain constrained by the number of seats in a lecture theatre.

New Currency Markets

In the world of Crypto and NFT’s, it will be wise to separate the instruments from markets.

Some crypto currency, in particular NFT instruments, offer huge promise as new forms of economic enablement and global trade. They also bring complexity and a need for response from governments and central banks; this is already happening, there will be missteps, but a balance will be achieved.

The crypto exchange sector looks a lot like the Wild West. Sure, fortunes will be made, lost, or in some cases just forgotten (It’s estimated that 20% of all bitcoin is locked up where owners have lost or forgotten the private key) but one thing is for sure; where there is money, there are opportunists, chancers, and criminals.

Cyber

The hackback of Bitcoin by the FBI following the Colonial Ransomware attack was an important demonstration that cybercrime losses need not be one way traffic.

But it hasn’t taken long for cyber criminals to recalibrate. Watch for an increase in attacks on the crypto and electronic payment ecosystem sector as a whole. At both the user and platform level. This is absolutely where the money is (see above).

The growth of digital services across Asia has been a boon for criminals who prey on users new to the technology. Social engineering is becoming so effective, criminals will no longer need to target harder to breach access points.

State sponsored cyber-attacks will intensify as they continue to mirror real world political instability. They remain the most effective asymmetrical form of disruption in grey-zone conflict.

Data, data all around…

The timeliness and quality of data, and the insight it brings, is marching relentlessly closer to ‘near real time'. And by that, in extreme cases, we are talking milliseconds.

The pandemic fueled data explosion (QR code check-ins et al.) will cause Governments and Industries to reconsider decision making and risk models. Sensors, digital devices and digital payments all offer opportunities for better services, greater convenience and frictionless trade.

New business models based on next-gen wireless technology and mobile edge compute will emerge, and represent a huge leap forward.

Infrastructure Happens.

Approximately 95% of global internet and voice traffic transits undersea cables. It is robust infrastructure, but not infallible. The recent seismic events in Tonga have reminded us in the APAC region of this.

Alternatives and enhancements to global connectivity will grow at lightning speed. Starlink, Amazon’s Project Kuiper (amongst others) and the rapid acceleration of the space cargo and conveyance industry (particularly from Australia) will form the foundation of a new infrastructure sector. One that will mature far faster than anticipated.

 In Sum.

So there you have it.  Technologically speaking, the next phase – one of re-emergence, change and opportunity – could well end up being the most consequential period for tech. since Alexander Graham Bell told Watson he wanted to see him in the other room. 

Time will tell.