Replication and the Wuhan Clan

Sometimes scientific discovery is an accident. X-Rays, Microwaves, Insulin, Teflon, Super Glue and even Viagra are among the unintended scientific discoveries that changed our lives. Most of the time, however, curiosity about the way a particular thing works or behaves leads to a hypothesis which must be tested. Experiments are then conducted to build evidence for or against the hypothesis. When an experiment using the same parameters and controls can be repeated with the same results enough times to overcome the law of averages and coincidence, it is said to have replication. At that point, the hypothesis becomes a theory. Unlike unsubstantiated, wild-eyed conspiracy theories or courtroom theories of a crime which aren't supported by evidence, a scientific theory is much more likely to be true because it's been tried under rigorous circumstances.

In an interview on a recent newscast, a teacher made the remark that she felt like she was part of a Covid-19 "scientific experiment", in which she was being pressured to enter the classroom petri dish every day and see how long it took until she or someone in her class tested positive. That's an "experiment" that's being repeated in classrooms from Kindergarten to College every day as government officials doggedly push forward to keep classrooms open in spite of the fact that in the vast majority of cases, in-person classes have led to positive cases of Covid, putting students, teachers, administrators, bus drivers, cafeteria workers, janitors and all their families in danger.

Every time a school opens and the infection rate rises, replication is being achieved. The hypothesis that people increase infection by gathering in schools, many of which lack proper ventilation, along with the lack of social distancing and the refusal to wear masks out of the disregard for others' safety or simply selfish excuses that masks don't work anyway, is now scientific theory for all practical purposes.

Are kids immune from Covid-19 or don't transmit it? Let's look at the timeline. July 10 from the Science Daily website: A commentary published in the Journal Pediatrics, the official peer-reviewed journal of the American Academy of Pediatrics, concludes that children infrequently transmit Covid-19 to each other or to adults and that many schools, provided they follow appropriate social distancing guidelines and take into account rates of transmission in their community, can and should reopen in the fall. Awesome! We can open up schools and send the kids back, since they "infrequently transmit" Covid-19, provided they social distance, wear masks, etc. (sure. yawn, like they're really going to do that all the time.)

Now, August 20 - a new study published in the same Journal Pediatrics: BOSTON - In the most comprehensive study of COVID-19 pediatric patients to date, Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) and Mass General Hospital for Children (MGHfC) researchers provide critical data showing that children play a larger role in the community spread of COVID-19 than previously thought. In a study of 192 children ages 0-22, 49 children tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, and an additional 18 children had late-onset, COVID-19-related illness. The infected children were shown to have a significantly higher level of virus in their airways than hospitalized adults in ICUs for COVID-19 treatment...The researchers note that although children with COVID-19 are not as likely to become as seriously ill as adults, as asymptomatic carriers or carriers with few symptoms attending school, they can spread infection and bring the virus into their homes. This is a particular concern for families in certain socio-economic groups, which have been harder hit in the pandemic, and multi-generational families with vulnerable older adults in the same household. In the MGHfC study, 51 percent of children with acute SARS-CoV-2 infection came from low-income communities compared to 2 percent from high-income communities.

Oopsy. Looks like that previous "scientific commentary" from July was a wee bit flawed, or should we say, untested. Tsk, tsk, researchers. Not enough experimentation? Did you not look for replication in your study? Where there is smoke, there is usually fire. If the infection rate jumps every time a school opens, you prove the point over and over again: kids with no symptoms can transmit the virus. In fact, they have higher viral loads than many patients being treated for Covid in ICUs.

Enter Wuhan, China, where they're partying like it's 1999. We haven't heard a lot lately about the city of 11 million that was ground zero for the initial outbreak of Covid-19 until now. Today, they report no new cases of Covid-19. I know what you're thinking - maybe they have cases and just aren't saying. Could be. Lots of people here in the states and elsewhere are thinking of the unmitigated gall the Chinese have, throwing a huge pool party with no social distancing or masks when THEY were the ones who let the virus escape to the rest of the world (see my other post on this site, "As We Are", for more). From Support The Guardian: Social media comments said the Wuhan event was “a slap in the face to the rest of the world”, and accused people of “partying like the [virus] didn’t happen”. But the [Chinese] ...state-backed Global Times dismissed attacks on the pool party as “sour grapes”. In an article it said Wuhan was “now welcoming an influx of tourists, and its economy is reviving, which local residents believed should not only be seen as a sign of the city’s return to normalcy, but also a reminder to countries grappling with the virus that strict preventive measures have a payback”.

Wherever you fall in the Wuhan debate, the fact is that once they realized they had a pandemic on their hands, they locked down the city to a degree that most of the rest of the world wouldn't. People were only allowed out of their homes for a maximum of two hours, and that only to buy essential items. Schools were closed. There were no public gatherings. It was rough. Did the lockdown work? Speaking for all of China, The News Explainer: As of 16 March [when their new infections rate dropped to near zero], roughly 81,000 cases have been reported in China, according to the WHO. Some scientists think that many cases there were unreported — either because symptoms were not severe enough for people to seek medical care, or because tests were not carried out. But it seems clear that measures implemented during this time did work, says Christopher Dye, an epidemiologist at the University of Oxford, UK. “Even if there were 20 or 40 times more cases, which seems unlikely, the control measures worked,” says Dye.

Nobody wants the virus to continue. Nobody wants to stay home, socially distance or wear a mask. Nobody wants the economy to keep suffering because people can't go to work. People want their kids back in school because we are all concerned about their mental health and their need to receive a good in-person education. The fact remains that because the government can now basically force teachers and other "essential workers" to report for duty, in spite of the mounting, overwhelming, replicated evidence that opening schools and other public meeting places results in spiking infection rates, we can expect Covid-19 to be with us for a very long time to come and many more of us will suffer the consequences. The pop definition of insanity has never been more true: doing the same thing and expecting different results. School boards and administrators simply don't have a comprehensive, creative plan for opening schools, just the same old tired approach they've used for decades. Virtual learning? Sure, but again, they were entirely reactive, not proactive. Way behind the eight ball when it came time to actually implement the technology, leading to myriad problems in its use. And instead of relying on advice from medical professionals, they relied on students and parents choosing what they wanted to do. Have we ever given kids, until they are old enough to quit school, a choice in how, where or when they would be educated? Administrators aren't keeping kids and teachers safe by putting 25 or 30 kids in a classroom and expecting them to socially distance. Those physics don't work. There just isn't enough room to do it. Teachers, doctors, nurses and other front-line workers are scared. And they should be.

It took Wuhan just three months to quell and practically eliminate the virus because they did the hard mitigation necessary, which we seem not to be able to do. The alternative would have been much worse. Hate them or admire them, we could learn from them how to shut the virus down sooner than later, and that would be good for every aspect of our lives. I hope the arrogance, stupidity and selfishness surrounding this will soon subside.

But as Ron White says, "You can't fix stupid."