The Predictive Implications of Following a Systematic Recruitment Process

Self Management Group’s Talent Analytics Team undertakes several forensic statistical audits annually with our clients’ recruitment data. The vast majority of these clients utilize SMG’s proprietary best practices recruitment strategy, known as the Selection Rater. The Selection Rater is a multicomponent systematic process that quantifies and evaluates a candidate’s Talent, Effort, and Fit for a particular position within an organization. This research overview is intended to highlight the importance and predictive power of employing a systematic process, as well as the additional benefits that can be realized from statistically auditing each step on a regular basis.

Creating a Demographic Scorecard

Most blue chip SMG clients have been using a validated and customized version of the POP™ for several years. As part of this questionnaire at the outset of a new professional relationship, SMG typically adds a number of demographic and biographical items simply for data collection purposes. These items are then subsequently analyzed against both performance and retention KPIs, with several typically demonstrating strong predictive validity. These items are then subsequently added into the overall scoring of the POP™ assessment (creating what SMG has coined the SuperPOP™), while also providing an organization’s recruiters with an “ideal recruit” profile.

Below are some outcomes associated with including a validated demographic scorecard to the already predictive POP™ assessment:

·      300% increase in the attraction of quality candidates

·      790% increase in quality hires

·      20% increase in first year retention

·      $8,380,000 increase in first year sales among new hires

·      Including this component adds 10% predictive power to the already predictive POP™ score

Structured Behavioural Interview

The second step of the selection rater process involves a standardized behavioural interview. The interview is intended to measure a candidate’s effort and attitudinal state, and is designed in a way that candidates are asked to provide concrete and explicit examples of themselves demonstrating critical competencies. Under the well-researched pretense that “past behaviour predicts future behaviour”, when leveraged effectively, this interview component adds significantly to the accuracy of the overall selection decision. Unfortunately, in many instances behavioural interviews are not leveraged fully in the recruitment process, which is something that is typically not identified unless a thorough statistical audit is completed. Common issues that SMG researchers have identified are (1) a restriction in scoring variability, (2) negatively correlated items, and (3) weak scoring anchors. Through an empirically supported audit, SMG has been able to help its clients fully leverage this valuable interview step, and to do so utilizing the most parsimonious and predictive interview guide.

Some of our statistically supported changes with clients have led to the following outcomes:

·      A 50% reduction in the interview time (significant human resource savings)

·      190% difference in 1st Year production between high and low rated hires

·      15% increase in 1st Year production among quality (highly rated) hires

·      Changes resulted in a 25% increase in the interview’s predictive contribution within the SR

·      additional 5% on top of the POP™ and Scorecard’s predictive power

Fit Interview

The third step in SMG’s Selection Rater process involves a fit interview, whereby the recruiter / hiring manager asks themselves a series of questions in an attempt to more objectively assess why they like / dislike a particular candidate. The step is intended to address inherent subjective biases that exist within the recruitment process, and therefore force a decision maker to use their “head” instead of their “heart”.

Similar to the structured interview limitations, a general lack of variability in scoring and unhelpful items are common issues identified through the statistical audit. When these issues are corrected, and the step is fully leveraged, the following outcomes can be realized:

·      30% reduction in time to complete this step

·      620% increase in 1st Year production between high and low rated hires

·      13% increase in 1st Year production of highly rated hires

·      15% increase in this components predictive contribution

·      This component adds an additional 5% on top of the POP, Scorecard and Behavioural Interviews’ predictive power

Conclusion

In conclusion, SMG’s 43 years of industry experience have unequivocally demonstrated the importance of employing a multi-component selection process like the Selection Rater. Each component must contribute to the predictive power of the final selection decision by accounting for statistical variance not captured by other components. In other words, each step must capture and measure new and independent information about the candidate, thus adding to the overall amount of information one has when making a final hiring decision. Moreover, the above findings also reinforce the importance of conducting annual forensic statistical audits, as to ensure that all components of the selection process are working properly and being fully leveraged in the final decision-making process. Another important reason for conducting statistical audits is that one can also weight the components of the selection process according to their predictive contribution. Doing so increases the predictive power of the process, without adding additional resources or time.

Additive Power of SMG’s Selection Rater

Predictive Contribution of SMG’s Selection Rater

If all of Self Management Group’s proprietary Selection Rater steps are systematically utilized and leveraged to their full potential, the Selection Rater’s ability to accurately identify and predict future top and bottom performers is 98%. The above schematic also reinforces the critical importance of including a validated psychometric assessment like the POP™ into your selection process, as it is by far the most important piece of information.