Point 9 Analytics - Introducing Conversion Rates
This week we'd like to introduce you to the way we see the game and some of our measures, and what better way to do it than by looking at some of the key numbers from the first two games in the International Quad Series between Australia, England, NZ and South Africa being played in Liverpool this week. In these first games, Australia beat South Africa 62-45 and England had a win over NZ 54-41.
Today we are looking at the four main possession conversion rates for each of the teams. In our definitions, possession for a team falls into one of two categories – a Centre Pass or a Gain. A Centre Pass starts either at the beginning of a quarter or after a goal has been scored and finishes either with a goal being scored or a loss of possession. A Gain is taking possession off the opposition, regardless of whose centre pass started that phase of play. A Gain can be made through a defensive rebound, an intercept or tip picked up or an error by the opposition. In our view, once a Centre Pass possession is lost, then that Centre Pass is determined as unsuccessful, regardless of whether possession is regained and scored by that team – in this instance the new possession would be counted as a Gain. A Gain can therefore be made off an opposition Centre Pass or off an opposition Gain, and there could be multiple Gains by both teams in the course of one goal being scored.
When we look at conversion rates, we look at two possibilities - was the ball taken into the shooting circle (and so a shooting opportunity created), and whether the possession was actually scored. Looking at these four numbers gives a good overview of the attacking performance of a team, and gives an indication of where tactics worked or didn't work - were Centre Pass structures successful, did they transition from defence to attack successfully and bring the ball through the court, did they finish scoring opportunities when they had managed to create them? Take a look at the visual above which shows a comparison of the four teams in the games played so far.