Numerically Superior

June 16, 2025 

Dear Leaders, 

Statisticians will tell you that the numbers don’t lie, and they might be right, but the question is, are the numbers telling you the truth, for if you see the world through a single lens, be it numbers, dreams, or the effect on you, it will give you the wrong picture.  Leaders know to view the world from multiple perspectives and make decisions on more than just data alone. 

In 1961, President John F. Kennedy named Ford Motor Company executive Robert McNamara to be Secretary of Defense.  McNamara was a skilled businessman, but like many who based their success on one premise, he was unable to bridge the gap between perception and reality.  As the United States became more embroiled in the Vietnam War, he looked at the entire process not from an empirical standpoint of the multiple factors involved, rather, he saw it in terms of quantifiability.  Commanders and associated government officials gave him numerical reports, notably the infamous body count, with no regard as to the nature of the opponent, the politics in the country we were supporting, and the larger ramifications that he also saw in terms of black and white rather than full color nuance. 

As history bears witness, his methods added to a disastrous folly that went on for years, and cost over 58,000 American lives along with hundreds of thousands of Vietnamese.  McNamara refused to see life in any way but numbers, and when his staff put the numbers into a computer of the day, they were astonished to find that with their parameters, they had won the war several years before.  As reality was somewhat different, the misadventure continued until the opponent that was willing to take high casualties and use tactics considered to be unconventional prevailed. 

The United States military learned a lesson from this debacle and trained their leaders to better assess the situation.  The political leaders were not so astute, and in the Gulf War, they tried again to use numerics to show progress.  Fortunately, they were dealing with a far less adept enemy, and a far wiser uniformed leadership. 

It was in the federal civil service that I found an obsessive reliance on numerical data to be a mask for inefficiency and fought many a battle with management who saw life as Mr. McNamara did, purely in counts.  Time and again, I had to explain that while the primary processing could be measured based on average time for completion, investigative work was far from the same, as some cases take 30 minutes while others take 30 days or more, and the variant nature meant 100 in did not mean 100 out.  

It was a never-ending battle, and it took unified leadership at our various locations to make the point, but like our military counterparts, upper management came and went, and the process repeated itself throughout my career.  Limited reports tell me that it continues to this day. 

Leaders must be wary of those who see life purely in terms of numbers and have to be prepared with empirical information of their mission that reinforces the point that numbers alone don’t tell the whole story.  While it’s important to appreciate data and how it can be useful, it’s more important to consider all the factors involved in your mission and how they affect each facet thereof.  Train your people to do the same and provide regular updates for your higher management on your progress and accomplishment. 

Robert McNamara remains held in low regard for his failure to see and address the problem, and many a Vietnam veteran will give you an earful in terms that LinkedIn will not permit.  Leaders who see the larger picture, identify the problem, and don’t address symptoms with quantification alone will succeed even in spite of the bean counters. 

Sincerely,

Tim