The Next Step - HyperForecasting®

I'm pretty jazzed and feeling the pressure... We're nearing the release of our beta version and new website at the end of October. To ease into this I thought I would share high level details about our key feature set, HyperForecasting®. This also serves as a starting answer to my previous post, The Modellers Dilemma, about how we can make the modelling experience better.

HyperForecasting was born out of the frustration of modelling as it is today. It is a unique set of features that bring together the best of what mathematics and modelling methods have to offer. The aim of these features is to make the creation free and easy, without sacrificing the desired detail.

You can use all or none of these features - we're here to enhance the creative process, not dictate how you should do things.

Features

Canvas Modelling

We all know the age old saying...

Forecasting is more art than science.

Canvas Modelling draws its inspiration from mosaic art. Our modular modelling methodology (quite a mouth full) ensures flexibility in the creation process without compromise on the detail.

Conceptually, a model is made up of multiple components called tiles. Just like a mosaic painting these tiles snap together on a canvas.

Types of Tiles

• Model: where you describe your decisions and relationships.
• Data Source: bring in data from your systems (financial and non-financial). Some models need historical context and references!
• Cohort: model your customer portfolio properly, i.e. Quarterly vs. Annual; Logo churn vs. Upsell. Find the path to expanding cohorts!
• Segmentation: add multiple dimensions like business units, chart of accounts, countries, or anything you want to slice and dice by.
• Newton Functions: create full financial statements from your model results simply by tagging. Defer revenue, recognise expenses, amortise contracts without having to build the mechanics - you still have all the optionality to perform what you need.

You can have as many of each tile as you like to bring your story together.

Modular Scenarios

Compare your ideas in one place.

Scenarios are made up of all sorts of great ideas. In many cases when you're testing ideas, a single or subset of model factors are changed when creating different scenarios. In a typical tool you usually have to create copies of your model to do this, which also makes the comparison of your scenarios harder. Painful, right?

Our modular scenario feature allows you to change, run and compare multiple scenarios in the one model.

Test things like new features, pricing models, opening new offices and different hiring plans all without having to copy and paste your whole model (and then try stitch the data together to understand your changes). One data set, one model.

Horizon Planning

Focus on where you want to be.

When inputting values into your model you're deciding where you want to be. What's immediately in front of you is clear, yet the further you look out, things become less so.

Horizon planning aligns with your strategic planning cycles, meaning you can input where you are expecting to be in the future, at different points in time. Start entering the near term of where you want to be on a monthly (or weekly) basis, then when further out to a quarterly, then yearly basis - you decide how long and when.

Thankfully there are well established mathematical relationships that can help us map how things will play out, and they typically look like one of the following:

This sorcery is based on mathematics that has been around for a LONG time (Interpolation) - it just never made it to modelling tools. I have no idea why...

You can use different relationships for different factors within your model, and different time lengths between your stages.

This gives a truly unique and aligned planning experience, ensuring that you focus on where you confidently want to be.

Cohort Modelling

Customers make your business.

Portfolio planning as it should be.

When analysing your customer or client base, you would typically construct a Cohort analysis to understand retention and upsell patterns. With a cohort tile you can define your retention & upsell curves and play out your new & existing customer base, properly.

Simply define your retention (or renewal) and upsell curves, tag your new customer calculations. Even bring in your existing customer base and historics.

This is a truly unique feature that we haven't seen done yet! You can have different cohorts for different aspects of your customer portfolio, i.e. Quarterly contracts vs. Annual; Feature set 1 vs. Feature set 2.

Newton Functions

Generate quality financials

For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction (Newton's Third Law). As an homage to the late great physicist we name this feature after him. Of course, the Medici's also thought in a similar way with double entry accounting, it just doesn't have the same ring to it. Medici Functions...

Many modelling tools have put Accounting at the front of the model, which makes the modelling process like fitting a square peg into a round hole. I think the creators forgot that Financials are results, not inputs to a model... What you need is an easy way to create financial statements (all three) from your model to prove the financial success of your business.

Newton functions allow you to easily create journal entries for your models. Define, tag and run functions in your model.

This functionality means you are free to change your model without worrying if your financial statements are simply going to balance. No more following your formulas and huge amounts of time spent auditing this aspect of a model.

Sensitivities & Simulations

Understand your key drivers, uncertainties and possibilities.

All the time saved from the features above means we can spend more time testing key drivers, uncertainties and possibilities. Diving deeper into the understanding of how we make decisions. These aren't unique in their own right and have been around for a long time, but they are great mainstay features that should be easily accessible and deserve more time and consideration.

Also, you can copy and paste tiles you've create before into other models. None of your work will get lost.

Finishing Up

If these features have piqued your interest, give us a like on LinkedIn to hear when our beta is released. We would really love the feedback of Professionals and Analysts alike to ensure we shape the tool of the future that you want, and deserve.