How data driven are we really?
Really interesting article in The Economist on some of the latest research on the political divide and how it impacts our responses to data. In short, it's literally painful to look at data that contradicts our opinions and so we unconsciously discount it. I'll leave the discussion of implications for national politics to others, but I was struck by how relevant this issue is to business. Every organization is striving to be data driven, but in the "fog of war" that are most complex business situations, data ends up being far more confirmation bias than clarifying. It's easy to discount what doesn't conform to current direction as outliers or take one positive input as evidence that everything is working.
That leads me to 3 recommendations about data when it runs counter to conventional wisdom.
- Be sure this is evidence and not data. Only focus on things that demand action and should not be ignored. If the data is not compelling to you it will never be so to anyone else. If you are going to advocate for the unpopular, be sure you're right.
- Build your case. Try it out on those who are less directly impacted to both be sure you're not self deluded as well as to add to those who can support you when you have to convince those more directly impacted.
- Use the power of 3rd parties. People are less likely to ignore information if the source is seen as impartial and/or an expert. That can mean referencing an internal or external expert or in extreme cases paying a consultant. It's harder to ignore an opinion you've paid for.
In the end it's up to all of us to be aware of our potential for self-delusion and encourage those who may disagree with us to be actively engaged to keep us from bad outcomes.
