🚀 How Close We Really Are to Quantum Computers – and Why Things Are Suddenly Moving Again

I want to make one thing clear upfront: I am not a quantum physicist and not a specialist in quantum computing.

But as an experienced engineer, I’ve spent many years observing how new technologies emerge, how they evolve — and where their system-theoretical limits lie.

I read analyses, research papers, technical articles and assessments from physics, computer science and industry. From this perspective, I try to interpret, connect and communicate developments in a way that is understandable, without ever claiming to be an expert in this field.

What I can do — based on decades of experience — is this:

👉 Recognize technological trends 👉 Understand structural patterns 👉Distinguish hype from real substance 👉 And derive the impact on our future lives

It is from this viewpoint that I observe the topic of quantum computing, and right now, something is happening that truly deserves a second look.

A few months ago, Sabine Hossenfelder delivered a remarkably honest conclusion in her talk:

“Quantum computers have not delivered what was promised in the last 20 years — and maybe they never will.” (see my previous LinkedIn article: Sabine Hossenfelder and the Natural Regulator of Physics)

Many in the physics community agree. The enthusiasm of the 2010s has largely evaporated. The reality is: we still have no error-corrected qubits, no scalable architectures, and no industrial manufacturing.

But something is happening right now that almost nobody is noticing — and it forces a reassessment.

🔶 1. The Situation Today: Quantum Computers Work — but Not Well Enough

Yes, we have functioning systems. But:

👉 Qubits are unstable 👉 Error rates are high 👉 Many systems operate at 10–20 millikelvin (superconducting) 👉 Scaling fails due to geometry, energy, and complexity

🎶 Think of qubits like musicians: 👉 10 musicians → manageable 👉 100 musicians → difficult 👉 1,000 musicians → almost impossible 👉 1,000,000 musicians → chaos❌

🥶 Superconducting qubits are like musicians who must play at –273°C, extremely sensitive, falling out of tune with the slightest disturbance.

😊 Photonic qubits are like musicians using light signals — far more stable and easier to coordinate. Suddenly, conducting a very large orchestra becomes possible.

🔶 2. The Honest Timeline

If we look at it soberly:

👉 Useful quantum accelerators: 5–10 years 👉 Error-corrected quantum computers: 15–25 years 👉 Fully industrial systems: 20–30 years

This is the world Hossenfelder refers to: The traditional path is too slow — mathematically, physically, technologically.

💡 But now the direction is changing.

🔶 3. Photonic Quantum Computing — The Potential Turning Point

Just days ago, China announced a system that surprised many: A wafer-scale, industrially produced photonic quantum chip — available now, not in 2035.

Why is this important?

👉 Photons are extremely stable qubits. No charge, no mass, minimal interaction, minimal decoherence.

👉 Glass and silicon photonics are mature industries. We have decades of experience from telecommunications and optics.

👉 Wafer-scale integration works. 1,000 optical components on one chip — something superconducting qubits cannot achieve.

👉 No extreme cryogenics required. This alone saves millions.

In short, photonics reduces two of the biggest obstacles: Errors and scalability.

🔶 4. What This Means

For the first time in 20 years, there is a realistic chance of seeing:

✔ Quantum hardware in data centers, not only in laboratories

✔ Hybrid architectures: classical AI + photonic quantum accelerators

✔ High-speed transformation of AI workloads

✔ New opportunities in materials science, cryptography, simulation

It does NOT mean: “Quantum computers will arrive tomorrow.”

But it DOES mean: "The path has become shorter."

🔶 5. Conclusion: Hossenfelder Was Right — but Only for the Old Approach

Her criticism remains valid: The conventional quantum platforms (superconducting, trapped ions) have reached technological limits.

But: Photonics may be the breakthrough nobody expected.

We are again at the beginning of a new era — much like GPUs in 2005. Back then, nobody imagined that graphics processors would become the foundation of modern AI.

Today, we may be witnessing the same moment in quantum computing.

🔵 Bottom Line

The question is no longer “if” quantum computers will arrive. The question is “when — and in which technological form?”

And that answer has just changed.

Kurze Zusammenfassung in Deutsch im ersten Kommentar

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