The Future and Human Social Evolution

I believe in the future. More to the point, I believe in hope for the future. I believe that the work we do today matters tomorrow. As it stands, I have no choice but to believe in the future because the hope I once had as a teenager in "primitivism," the idea of a return to the hunter-gatherer period, will probably not happen. Technology will prevail and with it the very real possibility of an existential crisis for all carbon based lifeforms at the hands of the new silicon based order. Real and genuine humanist thought, whether secular or spiritual, must address the very real possibility of a crisis in human equality that would rival that of the transition to agriculture from the hunter-gatherer period. We have to do everything we can to forestall our replacement by machines or our dehumanization by authoritarianism.

The future will be changed by technology, as those who have lost jobs and find it hard to get another one directly realize. Automation is not going away. Automation will either dehumanize us, or it will liberate us, depending on the relative power of working people to affect political policy. I have to admit that the outcome does not look good at this point, but change and hope are always within the tool belt of human workers if they choose to come together. If we are unwise, and do not demand change, then automation will make human workers redundant and humans obsolete. If we are wise, and demand a better future, then automation will be the source of abundant prosperity that might satisfy the old Utopian dream of making the need for toil obsolete.

The shape of things to come has fascinated the human race long before H.G. Wells. We honestly do not know the future, but we can make educated guesses. Personally, I hope for hyper loops and all of the fun predicted by Michio Kaku. It would be nice to have trips to the Moon or the terraforming of Mars. Even more to the point, I would like to see a world off of oil and no longer dependent on fossil fuels. I would like currency backed solidly by the productive power of automation and not by debt. I would like to see the wonders of science dedicated to human desires and wants, not wars or repression. I would like to see the end of the human being as a tool of production and the beginning of the human being as a creative being who is provided with a basic income backed by automation-based capital.

What we will actually see, I do not know. Yet I will be bold and hazard a few educated guesses. In the future, I expect to see an end to sexual differences. Whether this is good or bad I do not know. Yet, it is probably inevitable if current trends continue. We will see artificial wombs allow for male reproduction, freeing women of the burden of reproduction while simultaneously enhancing male autonomy. I expect to see a decline in the social value placed on male-on-male competition as men seek solidarity with other men in ways that women have sought solidarity with other women.

Traditional marriage may be altered. How this happens may depend on how well social solidarity survives but a ray of hope may be that the decline of the value of male-on-male competition may lead the way to a revived sense of social and labor solidarity. If traditional gender identities survive, there will be a lot more emphasis on autonomy on the part of all genders. The ability to reproduce without sex will change how much people seek to sacrifice their own sense of identity for the sake of another. We already saw this with feminism on the part of women. I predict that we will also see this emphasis on personal autonomy rising on the part of men. How marriage survives, and how traditional gender roles cope, depend on how the changes in perception of autonomy and traditional genders roles are addressed.

The way to contain the potential atomization of society might be to encourage societal social solidarity. It is here that a guaranteed income might save us from the more negative implications of coming social changes. People who are supported are often happier people, more creative people, and people willing to give back to society. I also think that a revival of interest in Nature could counter the appeal of technology as people seek escape from having their social interactions solely mediated by technology. Bands of humans are already beginning to re-enter Nature and seek to blend technology and Nature instead of having technology dominate Nature. They also want connections with other humans. Citizen science is on the rise, along with citizen naturalism. The pursuit of knowledge has become fashionable. I never thought I would see the day when it would be considered "cool to be a nerd" but we have actually reached that time. Social solidarity across traditional divided identities, including "nerds," is a fascinating change that harbors the possibility of positive change.

The decline of male-on-male competition may accelerate the decline of traditional divisions based on race, religion, class, education or perceived social affiliations. I do predict a rise of egalitarianism among males and a narrowing of the wealth gap. Seeing historians intermingling with Physicists, garbage collectors, businessmen, construction workers and electricians would be a sight to behold as the divisions among males disappear at last. Personally, this would be a beautiful sight to behold as harsh competition gives way to brotherhood at last. Groups of men may cooperate on citizen science, space exploration, and even artistic projects that have often not been seen as masculine. I believe this will be a positive change for men and women, although it may be difficult for some men and some women to adapt to the changed sense of masculinity and social competition. The integration of old and new gender identities may be one of the biggest challenges of the future.

I predict that conservatives and liberals may enter a real conversation at last, although newer divisions may appear along other fault lines. We may see real divisions between transhumanists and "naturals" who oppose transhumanism that also show the coming together of right/left coalitions. We might see the odd sight of Fundamentalist Christians and Anarcho-syndicalists uniting to oppose transhumanism while support for transhumanism unites liberal intellectuals and free market conservatives on the other side. Sadly, transhumanists and "naturals" do not communicate except across harsh divides. The very real points that both sides make are often lost in the clash of absolutes. I hope that a middle position can be reached that takes in to account the need for human dignity in the face of the machine, but that also acknowledges the fact that humans have always been a tool making species.

I predict that war will become a lot more rare as population decreases, traditional marriage alters, organized religions break down, and skepticism about government increases. The ability to motivate young men to fight becomes harder with an increasing emphasis on autonomy and the pursuit of knowledge over traditional notions of conformity. The military will probably address this crisis by emphasizing technical training and even extending college credit to recruits. Pacifist tendencies will increase among conservatives as well as liberals. Countering the effect of these tendencies on recruitment will require a reframing of military service as a form of education and personal development. The military might even directly compete with Colleges and Universities and possibly even grant degrees.

Finally, as I hinted at before, I believe that the traditional right/left spectrum will break down completely. Already political parties do not command loyalty. Trump and Sanders both represent a very different form of the breakdown of traditional party elite hegemony. Much of this has to do with the changes in technology, the rise of social media, and an increased skepticism. Yet, the deeper issue has to do with the nature of top-down control. Top-down control simply does not work in a cybernetic age. Neither Trump nor Sanders represent a break from top-down control. Yet, they both represent to their followers the symbol of a person whom they believe is willing to stand up to unaccountable power. In my opinion, Sanders represents the more thoughtful alternative and someone who has given the human future a great deal more thought than Trump. However, my lack of endorsement for Trump in the previous sentence, worded as an understatement, matters less to his supporters than their perception that Washington Party bosses ignored their communities while factories shut down. My strong differences with Trump aside, I cannot ignore the fact that his supporters do have reason to see traditional policies as not serving their needs. Factories closed and no one cared. A humane future requires that we embrace technology but never see the working person as disposable in the process.

I believe that we will see many of the changes I outlined. The question I see is whether we will see them in a democratic future with a healed environment, or whether we will replace traditional bureaucracy with a new authoritarianism. Both of these are stark alternatives. "Sanders versus Trump" may represent human faces on these alternatives, but the actual nature of them go deep in to human society. The rise of authoritarianism is a real possibility in the future as some people cling to the old certainties in the face of massive cultural and technological change. The only way to head that rise off is by increasing democratic participation and a sense of social solidarity. Atomized individuals cannot create a new future. Powerful and enfranchised citizens do.

Human evolution is at a crossroads and we may well be at a crossroads as to whether automation will increase human creativity or replace human creativity. A lot depends on whether or not humans who are now powerless, or who perceive themselves as powerless, discover their power and affect real change. An autonomy that leads to atomization is a temporary autonomy. An autonomy that exists in the framework of a participatory democracy is an autonomy that endures. I hope for a better future and will do my part to make it happen. That is the best I can do for the time being. The shape of things to come is hidden from me through a glass darkly. My guesses are just that, guesses. The freedom I hope for is also the freedom of other humans to surprise me in ways I never expected.