A foresight methodology: Causal Layered Analysis

What is a Causal Layered Analysis?

Prof. Sohail Inayatullah developped this methodology in the futures studies and used in foresight workshops. The must-read reference is: “The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology”, Sohail Inayatullah: http://www.metafuture.org/cla%20papers/Inayatullah%20%20Causal%20layered%20analysis%20-%20theory,%20historical%20context,%20and%20case%20studies.%20Intro%20chapter%20from%20The%20CLA%20Reader..pdf

With this approach, he proposed a both a theory and a method to approach a problematic and dig deep into its roots, and understand the different points of view on this subject. It will help creating alternative futures by focusing on the different layers and using loops on them to give feedback / insights. It should also allow to deconstruct the litany / general discourse to better understand it and rebuild something different (does not mean better).

• Litany: view of reality, assumptions, statements that can be verified
• Causes: perspective on the litany, quantitative data
• Worldview: ideologies, social process; with different levels that could be taken into account: stakeholder (interest of the actors), ideological (how the world is seen), civilisational (West, East, religious) and epistemic (modern, progress). Different levels will lead to different worldviews and can modify the litany.
• Myth: “unconscious emotive dimensions of the issue”: collective archetypes: deconstructing the current metaphor to develop an alternative one. It’s a metaphor, a way to communicate simply the view about the reality.

Where to use it?

It can help to map the present and the futures: having a global overview, a “narrative” approach to the problematic and improve the visioning process. It will help avoiding “obvious” solutions and limit bias in the discussion. The methodology will participate in deconstructing – reconstructing an alternative worldview, and in prospective the initial hypothesis.

It allows to better understand the underlying discourse of a litany/belief. and incidentally to understand the one we want to put forward, by moving it from myth to reality, by determining the actions to be implemented.

It participates in sharing the stakeholder views, and consequently rethinking its own view / position towards the subject.

How does it work?

CLA helps to create alternative scenarios to reflect on your problematic:

• Define your problematic
• Litany: identify the current conditions, the events and crisis. What are the views about the issue (reactions and feelings)?
• Systems: what are the relationships between the events? Which data (trends, drivers) support the assumptions?
• Worldview: which approach of the world is reflected by the prior elements? Which values? Who is shaping the issue, which worldview does not?
• Myths and metaphors : what are the archetypes , what could be the metaphor / stories representing the problematic?

Of course, this should not be an individual exercise. Exchanging ideas, finding out and overcoming bias are essential. Going deeper into the analysis after the discussion and continuing it will help to explore different visions of the world.

What then? Well, you already have a different understanding of your issue, and that is a great achievement.

For the next stage, you will play will the different levels: starting with a metaphor, you can work to rebuild a new litany, with new information to bring to the world “new events”. Choose your preferred (or most feared) metaphor and rework the four levels.

If you want to ease the discussion, you can define four different worldviews and ask the participants to exchange about them.

Examples please!

 Many case studies are available in “The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology”, the following are extracts:

How do I try it in a simple manner?

First, choose your issue! From “the future of vaccination” to “Elder people seen as a burden” or a more precise issue regarding your company / job (in 2030, 50% of our turnover will come from industrial partners), Parking space in urban center, electricity shortage in the 5 years in France...

• Litany: what would be the news headlines for this problematic?
• Systems: why did you write this headline? (PESTEL is still your friend)
• Worldview: look at the headline from different perspectives; you can choose some if you want (different generations, politic approach…)
• Myths: what moto could summarize this?

Brainstorm each level one after the other (feedback loops are welcomed), discuss your approaches

Once you have defined the myth, write a scenario which goes back to the litany, thanks to the brainstorm. Slightly modifying the myth, the worldview can alter drastically your scenario, therefore your vision.

A few examples

A study on the demographic evolution in South Africa towards 2030, and how to reinforce their economic participation: (André Roux, Doris Viljoen, South Africa Journal of Futures Studies, September 2018, 23(1): 5–22, DOI:10.6531/JFS.201809_23(1).0002)

Co-creating educational futures: Contradictions between the emerging future and the walled past (UNESCO, Sohail Inayatullah, EDUCATION RESEARCH AND FORESIGHT WORKING PAPERS, June 2020.

Deconstructing and reconstructing the global financial crisis (Jorgen Johansen and John Jones, Experiments with Peace. Capetown, Pambazuka Press, 2010, 89-102. Sohail Inayatullah)

Policy metaphors: From the tuberculosis crusade to the obesity apocalypse (R. Vallis, S. Inayatullah, Policy metaphors: From the tuberculosis crusade to the obesity apocalypse, Futures (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2016.04.005)