Expectation Creep

Expectation Creep

By Payson Hall

Humans never stop thinking and human memory is imprecise. This often leads to a drifting definition of “success” for any endeavor. That’s why clear written definition up front and effective project change management are so important.

I have lived in Sacramento, California for most of my life. The Sacramento Kings basketball team moved here from Kansas City almost 40 years ago. Though I’m not a basketball fan, there are many in my circle. The Kings have generally been a modestly performing team. They had a great season in 2001 and made the playoffs, but otherwise they are notorious for losing games in the 4th quarter.

As someone that doesn’t much care about basketball, I observe with humor the bargaining that the rabid fans engage in. At the start of the season, everyone seems optimistic that the most recent change to the coaching staff, or the results of the draft or a recent trade will mean that the Kings can be successful this year.

           Success 1.0 = Have a better record than last year.

This year (2023 season) the Kings had their best year of the last 20. The fans raised their expectations. Mid-season, I heard that this might be the first year in two decades that the Kings would make the playoffs. Several said, it didn’t matter how well they did, just making the playoffs would be a great milestone.

           Success 2.0 = Make the playoffs (playoff performance irrelevant).

The Kings did make the playoffs this year. The first-round playoff games were against the arch-rival defending champion Golden State Warriors from San Francisco (SF is 90 miles away – familiarity breeds contempt). Fans tried to restrain their enthusiasm, “It sure would be great to win a couple of home games.”

           Success 3.0 = Win a couple of home games in the playoffs.

The Kings came out of the gate strong in the playoffs. The first two games were played in Sacramento and the Kings won both games. Fans expectations rose further. “Sure would be great to win the first round playoff against the Warriors.”

           Success 4.0 = Win the first round of playoffs.

The playoffs ended recently. After the first two victorious home games, the Kings lost three in a row, bringing the record to 2 wins 3 losses in the best of 7 round. They came back to win game 6 and tie things up, then lost the 7th game. Sacramento fans are in mourning now because the season did not meet success criteria 4, success criterion 1, 2, & 3 being forgotten.

At this point, most of the project managers reading this are seeing a familiar pattern - Scope creep.  We start out with one set of objectives, but because they are humans, stakeholders keep thinking about the project and keep imagining that the project is going to solve more and more of their problems.

We start out agreeing to build the “Black Ford”. No bells or whistles. But as time passes, stakeholders see a shiny car on the road and their image of the goal evolves:

“Black Ford”

“Metal Flake black Ford”

“Metal flake black Ford with chrome hubcaps”

“Metal flake black Ford with chrome hubcaps and CarPlay”

Unchecked, over time it might become

“Metal flake black Ford with a red racing stripe, fog lights, chrome hubcaps on 20-inch mag wheels, with a 12-speaker Bose sound system, CarPlay, Bluetooth connectivity, heated leather seats, and a backup camera.”

That’s what Project Change Management tries to mitigate. When we start a project, we build the best description we can and establish that as the baseline goal. Project managers and senior team leaders need to be on the lookout for “small, inconsequential changes” which can quickly add up to become a significant burden to the project. Rather than quietly accepting these changes, project managers must assure that they are documented and approved by the project sponsor.

Managing expectations is challenging. Project Change Management is one of the tools in the kit to help assure change is a conscious choice and that we have an audit trail of how the goals evolved over time.

Absent the audit trail, stakeholders often forget the original goals of the project – priming themselves for the certain disappointment of ever-increasing expectations (like the grieving Kings fans in my life are experiencing now).