Emotion the Enemy of [Numbers]
The past 8 months have changed our world dramatically, with COVID continuing the polarization of our society to a point where having a civil dialogue about opposing views seems farfetched. Fear rules all, and "science" might as well be politics because distinguishing the two is nearly impossible right now; after all everyone has their science. For example, herd immunity (unfortunate name in our sensitive society) which was once a biological fact, is now a political punching bag. But good news, vaccines don't require herd immunity to be effective, right?
Pitting numbers against our emotions has always been, and as COVID has demonstrated currently, no contest. Emotion - namely fear - wins every time as we cannot help our biological heaps of cognitive bias. Even 15 years ago when there was only one science, throwing some numbers at us in the depths of a pandemic wouldn't have helped much. And likely when the next pandemic hits, whenever that is, numbers will fail us again. Or rather, we will fail the numbers. Simply stated they are just not comforting, and our minds can almost always contort them into a worst-case scenario. This is especially the case when they are disseminated daily, everywhere we look, to the exclusion of all else.
Perhaps this quick article is just my way of dealing with the world right now, but if I can set my emotions aside from one moment, please believe that all pandemics are temporary. History shows us this over, and again. COVID too shall pass, and unfortunately we can be nearly 99% certain (that made me smile), that no amount of numbers will help in this regard.
Emotion on the other hand is much more likely to end this hell-ride.
Interesting to see that there is a reduced emphasis on teaching history, and yet, history tells us a lot about what has happened and what it took to get through this. Social Distancing was a factor for avoiding large losses. And the vaccine took ~10 years to develop. Thanks for the post!