Seeking consensus is a black swan event

There were times when wisdom of investing and money making was not so popular but today it is popular than ever. There are many successful investors who have made tons of money and published their wisdom and these words of wisdom seem to become rules written on rocks, as they are believed to be true and as it is widely believed that they have passed the test of time. 

One among that is betting against the consensus, as that is believed popularly to be most effective way of making money and on the contrary, it is also believed that 'black swan' event which will reverse the course of current markets would never be known till it happens. Effectively presently, everyone is looking for that event and there are many predictions of 'black swan' events which possibly can alter the course of market. This itself seems contrary to understanding of black swan event.

Whether it is geopolitical situation or currency/bond crisis which will trigger the reversal, truth is everyone is looking for the consensus - to bet against it.

Reuters has reported that strategists at Danish bank Saxo Bank have drawn up a list of “10 outrageous predictions” for next year which, if even one were to play out, would ripple like a tsunami across world markets.

The 10 possible Black Swans is excerpted from from Reuters’ Factbox: Bold calls and Black Swans – how 2018 may surprise you.

1. The Fed loses independence as the U.S. Treasury takes charge, enacting a 2.5 percent cap on the 10-year yield after a massive spike higher.
2. The Bank of Japan loses control of its monetary policy. Dollar/yen (currently 113.00) rises to 150.00 and then collapses to 100.00.
3. China issues a yuan-denominated oil futures contract. The “Petro-renminbi” surges, with dollar/yuan (currently 6.61) sliding below 6.0.
4. Volatility spikes on a sudden S&P 500 ‘flash crash’, and the S&P 500 drops 25 percent in a spectacular plunge.
5. U.S. voters push left in the 2018 mid-terms, bond yields spike, with the 30-year Treasury yield (currently 2.77 percent) rips beyond 5 pct.
6. “Austro-Hungarians” launch a hostile EU takeover, as the divide between old/core EU members and more sceptical/newer members widens to an “impassable chasm”, shifting the center of gravity away from the Franco-German axis. The euro (currently $1.18) slides towards parity with the dollar at $1.00 after hitting new highs above $1.60.
7. Investors flee Bitcoin as governments strike back against the largely unregulated crypto-currency. Bitcoin (currently $16,500), plunges to $1,000.
8. South Africa booms after an “African Spring”, and the rand soars 30 pct versus emerging market currencies.
9. Tencent topples Apple as the most valuable company in the world. Tencent shares gain 100 percent.
10. Women take the reins of corporate power. More than 60 Fortune 500 companies end the year with female CEOs.

Which one will be a reality or none, we will know !