Beyond the Lockdown

Over the years, what has really helped me in times of pressure is the ability to think the upside, and yes, I am a hopeless optimist. In my view businesses rarely fail through circumstance. They generally fail through lack of key elements - such as awareness, enthusiasm, care, leadership and vision.

But what we have happening right now is something very different, this folks is a big, fat, whale sized CIRCUMSTANCE!

So, what am I personally doing to operate in this extraordinary environment? Like many of you, on the announcement of COVID-19 and the subsequent lockdown, I went through the usual range of emotions: 

• Ambivalence that it won’t affect us - economies don’t just STOP 
• Enhanced ambivalence that NZ will easily dodge this
• Shock that it did affect us - economies CAN just STOP and NZ didn't dodge it
• Enhanced shock of what happens to a globally integrated financial system when everyone panics at once
• Fear of what this meant for all of us, my family, my team, my business partners and my country 
• Enhanced fear of a western world where toilet paper could become an investible commodity  
• Stress related to potential financial outcomes, and the massive list of urgent to-do items that comes with an event such as this 
• Enhanced stress related to not hedging on toilet paper! 

But then came “acceptance”…… wonderful clear acceptance. This has happened, it is what it is, and there is very little I can do to change it (apart from stay the beep at home)…. so what to do, what to do?

I am using my time in lock down to absorb as many facts as I can (carefully researched facts are far more important than opinions), analyse what a new tomorrow could look like and then begin to adapt my thinking to suit this eventuality. I very much doubt, and the data would suggest this, that we will bounce back to what we were before. My personal perspective is that the world will now begin to change in a number of ways, and this will of course create opportunities. 

Here’s my personal take on the changes: 

We will see amazing, mind-blowing data: This will be real data that could underpin what we need to do in order to reverse the damage we are doing to planet earth. Never in the modern age has the human race had the opportunity to take stock like this on a global level. This is one massive global test tube and the information will be there for all of us to see! And yes, there will be some of us that will still see this as fake, and they will continue to bang their own drum.

Travel will change: Travel won’t be so free and easy any more. Sovereign states will be more protective and react faster to real (and perceived) threats, and you can bet there will be over reaction! Travel insurance will (of course) exclude all of this. Airlines will be smaller, and travel is likely to be more expensive due to less demand. Not to mention that both aircraft and cruise ships have proven to be VERY effective incubators!

Education may change:  Remote learning may change our perspective on the brick and mortar framework surrounding our education establishments 

Borders will change: The way that COVID-19 has spread (primarily through travellers) will materially affect the way border systems operate. Western countries in particular will deploy investigative, validation and tracking technology in order to validate travellers and de-risk the chance of unaware carriers. A colleague of mine, Richard Lauder, has written a great article on this, especially as it applies to restarting the tourism industry.

Collective awareness of viruses will change: COVID-19 will create a much stronger awareness of viruses, their transmission and their ability to mutate and adapt (they are after all tough little buggers). Social / physical distancing will become more normal, and cleanliness standards for home and work will need to adapt to this. The world will start to move away from “touch” related to “contactless” technology in public spaces

AI’s big fail:  Despite all the hype AI failed to predict where and when the virus would hit and how it would spread. Most AI models got this spectacularly wrong! Potentially highlighting some of the fallacies that currently exist around AI

Globalisation will take a hit: Some countries (not naming anyone) have shown their true colours during this crisis. This may change the way we all do business. Reliance on single industries, or on other dominant economies is likely to be less fashionable. Diversification will be paramount.

Our economy will be damaged: But there will be a new economy. We can’t all function as one massive government department, so there will be stimulus to start again. The new economy might be more open, localised and initially less focused on single instance "winners". Sustainable primary production and agribusiness (old school and new age plant proteins) may well be a big winner from this. 

Distribution channels will be a hot topic: Our duopoly food distribution system is likely to come under the spotlight - both positive and not so positive outcomes from the lock down will be discussed and perhaps challenged 

We will localise our thinking more: Just like our parents / grandparents did. What is best for NZ will always be more important than what is best for another country. NZ and Australia may even bump their bubbles closer, as between us there are many mutually beneficial upsides. 

We will digital more: Technology has largely permitted many businesses to operate during the lockdown, and this will have an impact moving forward. Sure, we will still rent offices, but we now know that remote working is now a real, cost effective and viable option 

WE may change: Through the lock down many families are seeing the benefits of stepping out of the race. Will this change the way we think post-lockdown? Will we drive ourselves as hard as we have been? Will the almighty dollar still rule us? Will we staycation more like our parents did?

In summary, we must not permit failure to define us: If you lose a business, or your job then you have to try to adapt to your new circumstances. We all have the ability to adapt, and you could use your time during this lockdown to do a bit of planning…….accept, absorb, analyse, and most importantly - adapt!