Back to The Future Predictions - 2010's predictions for Technology
Tablets will fail to be the next big thing, Google will Trounce Microsoft in 2010, Twitter will launch own adwords, Facebook will enable location in its apps, Home Energy Automation will be the first clean technology bubble, Hottest Phone feature of 2010 will be the projector.
I like VentureBeat. Its a very insightful and very well resourced publication. I also am a key observer of the market, and of many fan bois who declare their allegiance to a brand, and see only the good in it, or only the bad in its competitors. In 2009 a couple of authors published some really insightful predictions in our industry in the following article. Interestingly, most of the predictions are wrong, but for entirely the wrong reasons. It seems in Tech Sociologists, and Anthropologists can make better predictions than most people in our industry (myself included). So lets check out with only 5 years of forward looking each of the predictions
http://venturebeat.com/2010/01/04/2010-predictions-tablet/
1)Tablets will fail to be the next big thing. In this analysis they said it wouldn't be the next big thing because there was no "killer app" for the platform, plus tablets were high priced.
What the Authors Missed: Killer apps aren't needed in platforms where the FORM FACTOR is superior to the previous one. For example, 4x4s took over the automotive world not because they had a special 4 wheel drive super traction system. They did so because their shape was cooler (raised), they didn't look like a minivan, and offered the "image" of going anywhere you wanted. In short their packaging was better for their market. So they expanded, and against all environmental odds, are still here. No killer features needed in the Jeeps, or Escalades. Second, price is also guaranteed to fall, and it did, quickly. Perhaps this was the entry of Android into tablets, and to a lesser extend Microsoft's relaxation on Windows licensing too. But prices came down, and in our industry entry first to market cost premiums never last long. Strangely tablets have shrunk in the last year, as just about everyone in the world who wanted one, got one, and they are now in mid use of their lifecycles, but not because the idea failed.
2) Google will trounce Microsoft in a Showdown on multiple fronts.
This one also wasn't true, and whilst Microsoft's imminent death has been predicted by analysis and some very smart people over the last 15 years, it has somehow never quite come to pass. Google Docs, and Google Apps were going to be the killers (Office), and Chrome as an OS was going to finish the job over time (Windows), and Windows Mobile was going to get killed by Android (due to NexusOne).
What the Author Missed: Microsoft doesn't have two lines of business anymore - it has multiple - datacenter, cloud, personal productivity, unified communications, data platform, developer tools, etc. These are very very tightly coupled and tightly integrated and the majority of their agreements in the commercial (think Enterprise) world are equally bundled together. In other words, Office, Windows, Communications, and many other technologies come sold together. This is not a technology decision its a form factor one as well. Much of what a business needs and wants can be provided from one source, and after 15 years of development, coding, and practice Enterprises have large Microsoft investments they wont divest in a quick decision. The second thing Google continues to lack is an Enterprise sales team. They will never trounce Microsoft in any meaningful battle if Microsoft has an Account Rep on the account, a systems engineer, three specialist sales people, and can invest in a relationship. Google - offers a website. Office 365 and Azure continue their freight train momentum, and whilst some of their losses in Windows (to Android, and IOS), and the complete collapse of Windows Mobile are defeats for Microsoft, they aren't critical blows. In the mid-market businesses it will come down to channel model, and which model can incentive partners to sell to small and medium businesses. Outside of the United States, this is an even more critical battle, and one that neither side has won.
Twitter will Launch Adwords, Facebook will add location services - both were correct and the mega content providers needed to solve the problem of monetising their largely free services through advertising. In the case of Facebook, and Twitter location and targeting driven data has become the differentiator. Targeting locations, increasing following, and selecting area of effect and Demographics have all become key commercial differentiators as discussed in their article.
What the Author Missed: Location services at the time like Foursquare were new, and they hadn't fully matured in business model or usage plan. At the time, they were in their hype peak- over time the hype subsided and the valuations of location services like Gowalla, Rummble, and Foursquare dropped. However, adding location awareness to the major players (like facebook), made great sense. Strangely though, doing something with the location data doesn't seem to be in fashion (yet)
Tech IPOs will boom - They did, and bucked the trend, funny to read about some of the firms that have done IPOs in the interim period, that when the article was written, hadn't yet.
The Hottest Phone Feature of 2010 will be Phone Projectors - A few phones were demoe'd that had those features. Strangely not much came to those. Microsoft with their weak Windows Phone Platform is trying to resurrect its fortunes in a novel approach, and that is to turn the phone into the computer module that will use largely conventional displays, keyboards and mice to provide a normal computing experience using Windows Phone 10 (that will mimic Windows 10) as the powering platform. But the displays and input devices will remain outside of the phone. I think Microsoft's plan for success with this approach will mirror the phone projector in success, a good idea in theory, but the form factor will make it inviable.