Artificial Intelligence Expectations

All life is about expectations.

Setting them. Meeting them. Exceeding them. Failing to meet them. If I arrive for lunch at 11:45pm, I can be early, late, on time or an uninvited creep. All based upon the expectations that were set.

So what are our expectations of Artificial Intelligence and how realistic are they? That depends upon what we think Artificial Intelligence actually is today along with what we believe it can become. For the purpose of this thought experiment, let's think of "AI" as a set of tools in a generic sense.

“Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall move the world.”- Archimedes

Is AI simply a set of tools that amplify human capability, or will AI autonomously deliver advances without human guidance? The more you peer behind the curtain, the more impressive AI seems, while at the same time it seems less magical.

Here's a great rabbit hole:

Is it enough that AI will bridge the gap between apparent chaos and order?

Pre-trained, generative large language models "simply" use statistics to guess what the next word should be. Since humans have convinced themselves that our language is what makes us the dominant species in the solar system, we find this trick to be quite impressive. But it's not the same thing as solving the nuclear fusion dilemma.

Tools require craftspeople. Digital paint brushes require artists. Will AI need people to forge into new frontiers of knowledge, or with it be able to do it autonomously?

"Hey Siri, let everyone know that I'll be joining lunch at the last second. Get me an Uber, and check out of my hotel. Submit my expenses from this month."

That is a qualitatively different achievement than the creation of a new molecule that cures cancer. Or is it? Quantity is a quality of its own. If we put enough muscle behind reasoning over all of the data ever created, will AI be able to generate valuable insights?

Why its this important? Well, for one reason, a gazillion dollars has been invested in AI hardware baser largely on expectations. But how many can clearly articulate those expectations? Here's an interesting point of view suggesting that spend is outpacing ROI in a disconcerting way:

https://www.goldmansachs.com/images/migrated/insights/pages/gs-research/gen-ai--too-much-spend%2C-too-little-benefit-/TOM_AI%202.0_ForRedaction.pdf

This will be an ongoing conversation as FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) gives way to the question of ROI (Return on Investment) that can't be answered by a song and a dance.