Application of Machine Learning: Replacing Exit Polls by Data Science

Projection of Election results is an area where statistics and analytics are used extensively. The most popular is, leveraging Sample Survey techniques to conduct opinion polls and exit polls to gage the mood of pubic and then project. Even though it has its own merits, if the sampling design is done correctly enough, one can get a good sample and based on their responses, a very decent level of accuracy can also be achieved. The biggest demerit of this approach is, it is hugely manpower intensive, highly dependent on the sampling scheme that one opts and honesty of the data collectors and responders. So, it makes the whole exercise a costly affair. Many of the media houses can’t afford such cost and rely on bigger media house’s results.

The thing that I was deliberating for quite some time now, is it possible to do election projection based on historical election data? After couple of practical experiences over last 2 years, I am quite confident that yes, it is possible. Very soon we are going to see these costly exit polls getting partially, if not fully, replaced by this much cost-effective poll projection technique. About the accuracy, I have got over 90% accuracy in both the polls I predicted.

Let me explain the approach taken by me. Since there is no way to capture the impact of current political swings, I have used voting percentages of the election extensively. It has been observed, turn out percentages has some non-linear relationship for different constituencies and different parties. Also, in stead of creating one particular solution, I have simulated multiple scenarios and tried to generate corresponding outcomes. These two strategies together, can help us creating solutions that are closer to reality.

The tricky question is, to choose, which of the scenarios is most realistic. That is where, I am still working on, may be some expert opinion, may be some very limited opinion polls in the swing seats (seats that shows different trends in different scenarios) can solve the purpose.

Exit polls can soon be a thing of past, if not fully, at least mostly.