AI Is in a Bubble. Learning Is Not!
How to keep your talent strategy sane when everything else is inflating
TL;DR: Jeff Bezos calls it an industrial bubble. Dylan Patel says we’re in the middle of a trillion-dollar buildout. And the truth is, they’re both right. But bubbles don’t just burst. They mess with our instincts. They make us chase speed over sense, tools over talent, and headlines over impact. The real question isn’t if we’re in one. It’s whether your organization can stay grounded when the air starts getting thin.
Flashback to 1996
In 1996, I was still teaching full-time, trying to figure out what came next. The internet was suddenly everywhere; on magazine covers, in faculty meetings, in every late-night conversation about “the future.”
That summer, Netscape went public, and suddenly the world was buzzing about “getting in early.” I didn’t even really know what that meant, but it sounded like something smart people did.
So, I signed up for a few MBA classes to gain a better understanding of what was happening. (Full disclosure: I never finished the program.) My first assignment in Economics of Emerging Markets was to analyze what economic soothsayers were calling the Internet Bubble, a phenomenon that was causing widespread excitement.
I remember staring at charts filled with companies worth billions despite not making a dime. I thought, there’s no way this is sustainable.
And then, in a shining moment of youthful overconfidence, I took what little savings I had and invested in a few of those “can’t-miss” tech stocks. You can probably guess how that turned out. Let’s say it didn’t end with me on a yacht.
But that experience taught me something that still matters today. The people who got hurt weren’t just those who bet too big; they were the ones who stopped learning. They mistook momentum for mastery.
And the ones who made it through? They didn’t have the flashiest portfolios. They had curiosity, adaptability, and the guts to start over when everything around them crashed.
Fast-forward almost 30 years
The words have changed; GPUs instead of dial-up, neural nets instead of Netscape, but the pattern feels awfully familiar.
Once again, the hype is louder than the understanding. Jeff Bezos is calling it an industrial bubble that’ll still lift society over time. Dylan Patel is saying we’re in the biggest tech buildout in history. And the thing is, they’re not wrong.
But underneath all that hardware and data, the real constraint isn’t the tech. It’s people.
Everyone’s chasing AI potential faster than they’re building capability. Job titles are inflating. Vendors are multiplying like rabbits. And leaders are quietly asking themselves, can our teams actually keep up?
So maybe the question isn’t “Is this a bubble?” Maybe it’s “Who’s learning fast enough to survive it?”
The 4B Portfolio: How to Stay Steady When Everything’s Overheating
Every company claims to have a skills strategy. But most of them are really just guessing. So here’s a simpler, more human way to think about it.
1. Buy – but do it with purpose
Bring in people only where speed truly matters. Buy when the skill is critical and the cost of getting it wrong would be painful, such as AI security, data governance, or cloud infrastructure. And please, tie every contract to something real. Don’t pay for shiny decks or endless “pilots.” Pay for shipped results.
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2. Build – and give it time
You can’t outsource understanding. Invest in learning the basics: how data works, how prompts shape AI, how product thinking changes outcomes. Mix your teams up. Let engineers work beside HR, finance, or compliance folks. It’ll be messy, but that’s where the learning happens.
3. Borrow – but be smart about it
Sometimes you just need a little outside muscle. Bring in consultants for short, focused sprints, such as model evaluations, audits, and integration work, but ensure that your team learns from them. If the experts leave and your team can’t explain what just happened, that wasn’t consulting. That was renting confusion.
4. Bridge – because talent is hiding in plain sight
You already have people who could grow into these new roles. Your analysts, instructional designers, and project managers might already have most of the skills you need. They just need a bridge. Give them clear pathways, mentors, and a safe landing if it doesn’t work out. That’s how you build loyalty and capability.
The real win here is a workforce that bends without breaking.
When the Bubble Shifts
In every one of these scenarios, the winners are the organizations that strike a balance, knowing what to buy, what to build, when to borrow, and how to bridge the gap.
If You Lead People Right Now
You don’t need to outspend the bubble. You just need to outlearn it.
Yes, it’s a bubble. Good. We’ll use it to speed up our learning curve, not our burnout. We’ll buy a little, build a lot, borrow when it makes sense, and bridge every capable person we can. Because when the hype fades, the skills are what stay. [Me, 2025]
A Final Confession
I never finished that MBA. And those “can’t-miss” investments? Yeah, they missed. But that chapter taught me something I’ve carried ever since: every bubble eventually pops, but learning never loses value.
So before we repeat the 90s with GPUs instead of dot-coms, maybe this time we pause and ask a better question:
What skills will still matter when the air finally goes out?
(The views expressed here are my own and do not represent those of my employer.)
John M. Failla, very interesting read! Love it!! From my pov, the real win is using the bubble's pressure (fomo if you like!) to design a learning-first permanently nd adaptive work culture.