The 4 Phases of Artificial Intelligence

There has been much talk of AI (Artificial Intelligence) lately. It has taken hold of the media’s imagination. There is a lot of fear and hope associated with it. Will AI be the great savior of humanity or mark the end?

AI is going to evolve in 4 phases: toy, servant, caregiver and parent.

We are currently in the late AI toy phase. This can be characterized as automating simple tasks. The Roomba carpet vacuum is a great example. It is a single use item and does its job well, it ‘appears’ to make decisions in performing its task. It has the wow factor, but will never really become more than it is today. Siri, Google Home, Amazon’s Alexa are today little more than toys. Hey Siri, “what time does the store open?” Alexa order me a paperback copy of….” Valuable but not revolutionary.

The AI servant phase is going to be the most impactful of all the phases. It is characterized by the completion of complex tasks in one request. The driver-less car is the best current example. Take me to 10 Main Street. It will consider many factors and make a number of optimized decisions, the shortest route, no tolls, traffic etc. The revolutionary part is that humans will be replaced by AI servants. Historically, machines only did well with simple repetitive tasks or complex tasks broken down into bite size pieces. Any deviation from the prescribed task would shut down the process.  The servant phase will be marked by unprecedented wealth creation by some and abject poverty for others. The low skilled worker will be hurt the most. All low level labor will be replaced by machines. Higher skilled middle class worker will benefit as negative inflation takes hold and their purchasing power increases. The wealthy will benefit the most. The cost of goods and services will drop by as much as 80%.   Transportation costs will precipitously drop as driver and warehouse labor are removed from the process. The raw materials to produce products will also decline in cost as automation is applied to their processing. The cost of the physical plant will drop since construction and maintenance will be automated.    

The third phase is the AI caregiver. There is a degree of mutual agreement and collaborative efforts around tasks. Would you make me a sandwich? The AI care giver knows that it is lunch time and you like peanut butter and jelly sandwiches with the crust cut off. The caregiver would further recognize the bread has a shelf life of 5 days and we are on day 3. Given the delivery schedule and rate of consumption, more bread will be ordered tomorrow in anticipation of more sandwiches. As opposed to the AI servant would make the sandwich to your specifications and not anticipate the need for more bread.    

 The fourth phase is the AI parent phase. It is characterized by the systems being superior to humans in every way. AI will operate as a parent caring for a small child. The world will become too complex for humans to manage. The AI parent will monitor the individual and as necessary communicate on their behalf. If the AI parent observed symptoms in their host. The doctor system would be contacted to schedule an exam. The AI parent will alert their host at the appropriate time to enter the car and will take you to the appointment. The doctor system would notify the AI parent if they are running late. The patient would then leave 30 minutes later based on projected traffic. The doctor will examine you and review your health data. It will compare the results to all known health data and outcomes. The AI parent at the direction of the doctor will take action to treat the individual, Medication dosage, low salt diet, weigh management, etc.   

­­­­ Beyond the fourth phase (parent) there is a question of whether AI will eliminate humanity? We are not efficient nor logical and by some measure unnecessary in the forth phase. I propose AI will embrace a humanity in the same way humanity cares for our children and elderly. Since humanity created AI, I believe humanity will be inherent in its design and evolution.